India Economics Weekly RBI liquidity measures, fuel tax cuts Recent measures by the RBI to further drain banking sector liquidity have led some to think that a hike in the reverse repo rate is imminent. But we disagree and think that liquidity-withdrawal... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly PM Kishida’s plans to raise wages sound familiar PM Kishida’s plans to lift wage growth largely follow the Abenomics blueprint of tax incentives, targeted pay hikes in sectors facing severe labour shortages and rapid minimum wage hikes. A tax on... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fiscal risks loom largest in Lat Am & S. Africa Among the major EMs, long-term fiscal problems look most challenging in South Africa and several large Latin American economies. And rising interest rates will make the fiscal squeeze needed to... 3rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Metals Outlook Metals can’t escape China slowdown Industrial metals prices have risen recently on the back of supply concerns related to higher energy costs and power rationing in China. Both factors will continue to support prices in the near term... 3rd November 2021 · 20 mins read
Japan Economics Update Virus caution by the elderly not a big downside risk Continued caution by the elderly is a downside risk to our upbeat forecasts for private consumption, but we’re already assuming that households won’t return to their old ways anytime soon. 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Services & Composite PMI (Oct.) The strength in India’s PMI surveys for October suggests that economic activity continued to hold up well last month. But we still think that the recovery is set to enter a slower phase, and India’s... 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Supply disruptions weigh on EM industry October’s PMIs suggest that manufacturing sectors in Southeast Asia are recovering from recent Covid waves, but supply constraints are taking their toll on industry in China, Brazil and parts of... 2nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Outlook Prices to come off the boil in 2022 Following sizzling rallies in the prices of energy commodities in 2021, we expect prices to ease back in 2022 on the back of lower growth in demand and improved supply. Current high prices will... 1st November 2021 · 19 mins read
Commodities Update Metals can’t ignore China slowdown for much longer Although the China PMI data were a mixed bag in October, the big picture is that they remain at odds with sky-high industrial metals prices. This adds to our view that prices have quite a long way to... 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy largely treaded water last quarter, with weaker exports and investment meaning the rebound from Q2’s downturn was much more tepid than expected. The pace of recovery is likely to... 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) The jump in India’s manufacturing PMI in October paints an upbeat picture of the health of manufacturing, but the recovery remains fragile against the backdrop of persistent global supply shortages... 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Oct.) The manufacturing PMIs diverged again this month. But the big picture is that power rationing and supply shortages continued to constrain output and push up prices. 1st November 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update Annual fiscal deficit will be smaller than budgeted Relative to budget estimates, the cumulative fiscal deficit in rupee terms is much smaller than normal for this time of year, due in large part to decent tax revenues. We think the Finance Ministry... 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Fiscal policy will continue to support the recovery The supplementary budget that PM Kishida will compile by year-end will probably contain only half as much fiscal support as was provided last year. However, given that government spending will still... 1st November 2021 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Sep.) Output from India’s core infrastructure industries dropped in September, providing further signs that the industrial recovery is faltering on the back of supply constraints. 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Renminbi’s strength carries echoes of 2015 The renminbi has risen 10% in trade-weighted terms since the middle of last year, reaching its strongest level in over five years this week. The last time we witnessed such rapid gains, they... 29th October 2021 · 6 mins read
