Asia Economics Update Philippines: rates will stay low to support recovery The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left its main policy rate on hold at 2.00% today to support the economic recovery, and with GDP still well below its pre-pandemic level, rates are set to... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Focus How much scarring will the pandemic leave? The pandemic’s most significant economic legacy in India will be a heavily-damaged banking sector that is likely to constrain investment over the years ahead. This underpins our view that the economy... 17th November 2021 · 18 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ to accelerate hiking cycle The New Zealand economy is clearly overheating. Measures of underlying inflation are mostly above the ceiling of the RBNZ’s target band. And employment is now above the Bank’s estimate of the maximum... 17th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan External Trade (Oct. 2021) The recovery in exports in October suggests that supply shortages were beginning to ease in the automobile sector. We think that the rebound in exports will pick up pace over the coming months as... 17th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Watch China managing a coal market trilemma In this Energy Watch, we look at what recent policy changes mean for China’s coal market . The main take-away is that the changes should increase Chinese coal production and temper demand growth in... 16th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Copper supply set for further improvements Copper prices have soared since mid-2020 as demand raced ahead of supply. However, a strong supply response is now underway which, in tandem with cooling copper demand, will weigh on prices into 2022. 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Oct.) The jump in headline wholesale price inflation in October was due almost entirely to higher commodity prices, but we think they are now close to peaking. While the RBI will be wary that wholesale... 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Oct.) Industrial growth rebounded last month as energy shortages eased. But this pick-up is likely to be short-lived given the deepening downturn in property construction. And while retail sales also... 15th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q3) Thai GDP shrank in the third quarter after the government tightened restrictions and, while the economy should bounce back strongly in the fourth quarter, the speed of the recovery beyond the end of... 15th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan GDP (Q3 2021 Preliminary) While the economy contracted yet again in Q3 as supply shortages and the Delta wave softened domestic demand, output should now be rebounding sharply. With most domestic restrictions removed, we... 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect Chinese government bond yields to decline In contrast with our expectations for sovereign bond yields to rise around the rest of the world, we think that the 10-year Chinese government bond yield will decline over the next couple of years as... 12th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ unlikely to ride to the rescue anytime soon Despite falling short of its targeted increase in output once again in October, we think OPEC+ will continue to snub calls to raise output more rapidly. The week began with comments from the Biden... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Policymakers are stressing developers not markets This week’s sell-off in Chinese high-yield dollar bonds is not a good measure of the stress facing Chinese developers. These bonds account for less than a tenth of developer debt. Their key creditors... 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) & Industrial Production (Sep.) India’s consumer price inflation edged up in October but remained well below the 6% ceiling of the RBI’s inflation target range. And we expect it to stay there for several months yet, which underpins... 12th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly South East Asia disruption eases, Sri Lanka in peril Recent data from Malaysia and Vietnam suggest that virus-related disruption is continuing to ease. This should help alleviate some of the supply constraints currently holding back growth elsewhere in... 12th November 2021 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly Energy constraints easing, autos still struggling Concerns about severe energy shortages in India have eased this week amid encouraging signs of a rebound in coal inventories. But the latest production figures from carmakers suggest that global... 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
