China Chart Pack Investors refocus on long-term concerns Questions about the strength of China’s post-lockdown rebound have become louder since the People’s Bank cut the required reserve ratio three weeks ago. But the trigger for this week’s sharp equity... 30th July 2021 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Activity to rebound in fourth quarter With the Sydney lockdown set to extend into the fourth quarter, we’ve lowered our Q3 GDP forecast further. However, we still think that the economy will bounce back in Q4 as vaccine hesitancy is... 30th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Virus now hitting industry in Malaysia and Vietnam Industry in Malaysia and Vietnam was already feeling a pinch from restrictions and worker shortages brought about by a jump in COVID-19 cases, but the situation is deteriorating fast. Data early next... 30th July 2021 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bankruptcy code upgrade, RBI meeting The amendments to the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) that were approved in the Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament) this week could provide much-needed support to India’s banking sector. But... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Jun. 21) Retail sales, industrial production and employment all rebounded strongly in June, pointing to a sizeable recovery in activity in between the Alpha- and Delta-driven coronavirus waves. That supports... 30th July 2021 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch RBI in no rush to tighten Policy rates are highly likely to be left unchanged at the conclusion of the RBI’s upcoming MPC meeting on 6 th August, particularly given that inflation now appears to have peaked. Further ahead, we... 29th July 2021 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Update Short-lived spike in underlying inflation on the cards The surge in input prices caused by supply shortages is starting to show signs of filtering through into higher output prices. Combined with upwards pressure on services inflation from a “vaccine... 29th July 2021 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to delay tapering to November We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to respond to the worsening virus outbreak in Sydney by delaying the tapering of its asset purchases from September to November. Even so, we still expect those... 28th July 2021 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2 2021) Most of the surge in inflation in Q2 was driven by base effects that will unwind over the next couple of quarters, but we think that inflation will remain stronger than the RBA is anticipating. 28th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia- How inflationary is the border closure? We believe that the slump in net migration is holding back supply more than demand. Unless the government allows net migration to overshoot its pre-virus level for a prolonged period once the border... 27th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q2, provisional) Korea’s recovery looks set to continue in the quarters ahead after GDP rose further above its pre-crisis level in Q2. Provided the economy proves relatively resilient to the latest wave of the virus... 27th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Jul. 2021) Today’s flash PMI suggests that the services sector was hit by Tokyo’s state of emergency but we still expect activity to recover towards the end of this quarter. 26th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics The global implications of a slowdown in China The slowdown that we anticipate in China over the next 6-12 months is best viewed as a return to normality following a period of above-trend output. While it will be a headwind to growth in some... 23rd July 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Coming down to earth China’s economy has been defying gravity thanks to elevated global demand but this support may now be fading. Meanwhile, last year’s policy easing has been fully reversed. An abrupt slowdown is not... 23rd July 2021 · 22 mins read
China Economics Weekly Evergrande is a poster child for property sector risks Evergrande appears to be getting closer to a reckoning over the scale of its liabilities as regulators, banks and local governments tighten the screws. It is just the largest of many developers that... 23rd July 2021 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly A coronavirus wave for each Olympic ring While consumption remains a weak link, robust exports and capital spending in Q2 may have helped the economy just about avoid a double-dip recession. And while Japan will be in the midst of a fifth... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
