Asia Economics Update Supply shortages to persist Taiwan export orders dipped back again in August, suggesting that demand for Asian electronics goods may have peaked. However, with demand still running well ahead of supply, shortages are likely to... 24th September 2021 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Domestic needs limit prospects for vaccine exports India is planning to resume exporting COVID-19 vaccines from October, which should help to further boost the trade position. But with vaccination coverage still low, the domestic vaccine rollout will... 24th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Sep. 2021) September’s flash PMIs suggest that while the services sector is bouncing back as the delta wave has ebbed, the manufacturing sector is suffering from weaker demand and mounting supply shortages. 24th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Aug. 2021) Headline inflation stayed negative in August as a boost from Go To Travel base effects was offset by a major drag from fresh food inflation. But looking through one-off factors such as Go To and April... 24th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Limited risks to DM property from Evergrande The Evergrande crisis has made waves in financial markets this week. But, while the developed property markets we cover may see some short-term upheaval, we think the impacts outside of China are... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lat Am leads the EM tightening cycle Several EM central banks have raised interest rates in the past couple of months on the back of growing inflation concerns (including many in Latin America) and/or strong economic recoveries (parts of... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Evergrande collapse would put a ceiling on prices Although a messy collapse of Evergrande is a downside risk to our near-term price forecasts, it adds weight to our view that China’s construction sector is in structural decline. In turn, this... 23rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Aug.) Despite high prices, global steel output contracted in August. And given that the authorities in China are proactively encouraging lower output there, further falls in the coming months appear likely. 23rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan central bank in little rush to tighten policy Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today left interest rates unchanged at 1.125%, and we think policymakers will be in little rush to start tightening policy despite the strong economy. 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade (1st - 20th Sep.) Korean export values are set to have another strong month in September. Large backlogs of orders are likely to keep exporters busy for many months to come. 23rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think China’s equities will continue to struggle Even if the current concerns around Evergrande abate, we think China’s stock market will continue to underperform many of those elsewhere over the next couple of years. Drop-In: Evergrande – What are... 22nd September 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Thinking through how we could be wrong on Evergrande If, contrary to our opinion and the consensus, a collapse of Evergrande ends up having a significant impact on the rest of the world, it will be because it first causes either major financial... 22nd September 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Most developers are not on the brink of default With a couple of exceptions, most major developers are in a much stronger financial position than Evergrande and should be able to weather a temporary spike in their borrowing costs amid contagion... 22nd September 2021 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update External strains unlikely to ease as tourism slump drags on Countries across Emerging Asia are making renewed efforts to reopen their borders to boost flagging tourism sectors. However, ongoing travel restrictions and the spread of the more infectious Delta... 22nd September 2021 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Global index inclusion would marginally boost bonds Speculation is building that India will be included in major global bond indices over the next year or so. If that happens, it would highlight the local bond market’s growing maturity and be cast as a... 22nd September 2021 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s LNG shielded from Europe price spike for now Japan’s reliance on fixed, long-term contracts for its natural gas supply should limit the impact on consumers of the recent surge in gas spot prices currently being felt most acutely across parts of... 22nd September 2021 · 2 mins read
