Commodities Update China’s power shortage curbs metal supply & demand China’s manufacturing PMIs for September diverged, but both still point to subdued commodities demand. What’s more, the surveys were conducted before power shortages started to constrain activity... 30th September 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Sep.) The manufacturing PMIs diverged this month. But the big picture is that industry was coming off the boil even prior to the latest power shortages. On a more upbeat note, the official surveys point to... 30th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug. 2021) The sharp falls in both retail sales and industrial production in August indicate that activity weakened significantly at the height of the Delta-driven fifth wave. But while that suggests that the... 30th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update A deeper dive into Chinese equities’ sectoral performance While financials and real estate have been among the worst-performing sectors in the MSCI China Index this year we think that there may be scope for them, as well as the energy sector, to outperform... 29th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: rates to stay low for an extended period The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today at 0.5%, and we have taken out the rate cut we originally had pencilled in for this year. However, rate hikes are still a long way off. 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update What does Kishida’s victory mean for Japan? Incoming PM Kishida has provided mixed signals on fiscal policy, pledging a large near-term stimulus while retaining ambitious medium-term consolidation plans. Given that he blamed deregulation for... 29th September 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update Power rationing adds to mounting headwinds China’s power shortages are a reflection of the global strain in energy markets and won’t be resolved overnight. Power rationing will constrain industrial activity until demand weakens enough to bring... 29th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q3) GDP data reveal that Vietnam paid a heavy economic price in efforts to control the virus this quarter, but monthly activity data at least suggest that the worst is over and that a recovery is now... 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch Rate hikes remain a distant prospect Policy rates are highly likely to be left unchanged at the conclusion of the RBI’s upcoming MPC meeting on Friday 8 th October, particularly given the recent drop in inflation. The committee might... 29th September 2021 · 6 mins read
CE Spotlight Will US-China decoupling be inflationary? China’s integration into the global economy contributed to the low inflation environment of recent decades. But it was not the major driver and, in any case, China’s integration peaked several years... 28th September 2021 · 25 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor A strong Q3 for LatAm, weakness in much of Asia The latest data suggest that GDP growth in much of Emerging Asia slowed markedly in Q3, and that the recovery in Emerging Europe lost a bit of steam. Latin American economies generally strengthened... 27th September 2021 · 2 mins read
CE Spotlight Have emerging markets vanquished inflation? Low inflation is here to stay in much of the emerging world. However, there is a significant risk that inflation rises, albeit moderately, over the medium term in several countries. This risk isn’t... 27th September 2021 · 26 mins read
China Activity Monitor Delta blow to give way to property downturn Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic output dropped back sharply in August. The big hit to services activity from efforts to contain the Delta variant should mostly reverse this month... 27th September 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update The curious case of the super-stable renminbi We think that the renminbi’s period of remarkable calm will end before long, and that it will depreciate against the US dollar over the next few months. In view of the wider interest, we are also... 24th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly States of emergency may end before LDP election Reports this week that PM Suga is keen to end emergency declarations before leaving office on Wednesday are good for our view that output will rebound strongly to above pre-virus levels in Q4... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Local governments prepare to step in Evergrande creditors face a bumpy few weeks with a string of bond coupon payments due. Even if the company can scrape together the cash – not at all certain, given that it just missed one payment... 24th September 2021 · 6 mins read
