Japan Data Response Japan GDP (Q4 2022 Preliminary) Japan’s economy returned to growth in Q4, avoiding a technical recession after the contraction in Q3. With business investment slowing even quicker than we anticipated and a lower savings rate leaving... 14th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Fracturing to reshape the global economic system The Ukraine war has added to the forces reshaping the global economic system into two US-led and China-led economic spheres. While the economic diversity of the US-bloc should help it to adapt... 13th February 2023 · 1 hr, 10 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The unexpectedly large jump in headline consumer price inflation in January to 6.5% y/y is a clear challenge to our view that the hiking cycle is at an end. Further signs of the economy coming off the... 13th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q4, final estimate) The economy slowed sharply in Q4 and we expect growth to remain tepid and well below-trend over the coming months as multi-decade high interest rates and weak global demand weigh on prospects. 13th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We still think the BoJ’s YCC is on borrowed time Kazuo Ueda’s impending appointment as Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor doesn’t alter our view that Yield Curve Control (YCC) will be abandoned in a few months’ time, pushing up the 10-year JGB yield and... 10th February 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Export downturn, outbound tourism, EV subsidies Early signs are the China’s goods exports will fall further in the next few months. Outbound tourism though is surging with further major relaxations this week of COVID-linked limits on overseas... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect China’s “reopening trade” to resume Some of the moves in China’s financial markets that followed its rapid reopening – including a rise in equity prices, higher bond yields and stronger renminbi – have unwound in the past couple of... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Ueda the Unknown Kazuo Ueda was present as a member of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board at the birth of both the Zero Interest Rate Policy in 1999 and Quantitative Easing in 2001 and took the dovish side of arguments... 10th February 2023 · 8 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) After slowing last year, bank loan growth jumped to a 10-month high in January. After accounting for seasonal effects, broad credit growth looks to have ticked up too. We expect the recovery to... 10th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response New BoJ Governor has yet to come out as hawk or dove, but YCC may end either way 10th February 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Adani spill-over risks, RBI cautious on inflation Contagion risks from the Adani saga look contained for now; foreign equity outflows have been small and there has been no widening in corporate bond spreads. However, we don't share the RBI's optimism... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q4) GDP contracted sharply in Q4 2022 and we think the economy will continue to struggle in the coming quarters as high interest rates, weak external demand and tepid consumption activity drag on... 10th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hawkish RBA will lift cash rate above 4% by May With inflation surpassing its forecasts, the Reserve Bank of Australia is becoming increasingly concerned about a wage-price spiral. Accordingly, we’re lifting our forecast for the peak in the cash... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
