Industrial Metals Update Sentiment towards precious metals improves Precious metals prices continued their upward trend over the last month, bolstered by a weaker US dollar and a scaling back of fears over a hard landing in China. While gold benefited from further... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investors become more sanguine on China Over the last few weeks, investors have appeared to come round to our long-held view that fears of a hard landing in China were overdone. Energy and metals prices, in particular, benefited from the... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response US silver imports and exports (Dec.) US imports of semi-manufactured silver are showing signs of improvement, suggesting that industrial demand could be on the mend. Meanwhile, US production of silver continued to fall, supporting our... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Palladium price to strengthen, despite high stocks Concerns about China’s demand have been weighing on the price of palladium in recent months. As such, we think the price will recover as investor fears of a hard landing in China are assuaged. However... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Is ECB easing good or bad for gold? The fall and subsequent rebound in the dollar price of gold after today’s announcement of additional monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank (ECB) should help to settle the debate over what... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Goldilocks eats the bears... Some “just right” US economic data, with activity and inflation neither too hot nor too cold, has boosted the prices of equities and commodities this week. What’s more, the gold price has resumed its... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update New (higher) forecasts for gold and silver We already had a relatively positive view on the outlook for precious metals. However, two new developments have encouraged us to revise up our medium-term projections for the price of gold and, as a... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver’s underperformance set to reverse soon The recent poor performance of silver is surprising given the resilience of the gold price and the recovery in industrial metals generally. One explanation is that reduced safe-haven demand has... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold starting to benefit from demand for inflation hedges The ongoing tussle between gold bulls and bears often boils down to a view on the outlook for US interest rates. If the Fed resumes its tightening soon as global risks fade, supporting the dollar, the... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Will South Africa suffer Brazil’s fate? The main reason why South Africa has not followed Brazil into a deep recession is that the shock to its terms of trade has been less extreme. Our core view is that South Africa faces an extended... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Fundamentals pointing to higher gold prices Since the start of 2016, gold has benefited from a resurgence in safe-haven demand on the back of global financial market woes. While the gold price could fall back a bit if, as we expect, the Fed... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Jan.) While gold imports by China plummeted in January, India’s buying remained strong. Looking forward, local price premiums suggest that the weakness in imports of gold is likely to have persisted through... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Prices of industrial commodities may finally be bottoming out Looking past the day-to-day volatility, the prices of many industrial commodities – including oil and base metals – appear to be finding a floor. This is at least consistent with our relatively... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Bumper start to the year for China’s PGM imports China’s imports of palladium and platinum surged in January. The seasonal disruption associated with the Lunar New Year holiday might have distorted the figures to some extent. Nonetheless, strong car... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices may finally be finding a floor Oil prices have ebbed and flowed in the past week on hopes that at least some OPEC members will be able to agree a deal with Russia to freeze output. Admittedly, the recent talks have left many... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Can gold rally even if Treasury yields rebound? Over short horizons the gold price is often driven by the same factors that determine US Treasury yields. This means that the price of the precious metal now looks increasingly vulnerable to a... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
