CE Spotlight Securing raw materials in a fractured world China’s dominance in the supply of some key materials needed for the green transition means that US-aligned governments will continue efforts to secure supplies from “friendly” sources, which could... 6th October 2022 · 14 mins read
CE Spotlight The threat to migration flows The globalisation witnessed over recent decades has manifested itself in increased flows of trade, capital and people. We have already discussed what the fracturing of the world economy might imply... 6th October 2022 · 15 mins read
CE Spotlight What might fracturing mean for the markets? Fracturing will be felt very differently by markets in different parts of the world. Sectors within US-aligned markets where ties with China are most likely to fracture could see significant ructions... 6th October 2022 · 23 mins read
CE Spotlight The impact of fracturing on trade and supply chains Fracturing will not be felt as globalisation in reverse – apart from a few categories of goods deemed politically sensitive or strategically important, most trade between the US and China-aligned... 6th October 2022 · 20 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany €200bn fiscal shield won’t prevent recession Germany’s huge off-budget facility designed to compensate households and businesses for the increase in energy prices is bigger than measures announced elsewhere. However, we don’t expect actual... 5th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update What Lula could mean for Brazil’s financial markets Investors seem to have taken the prospect of a second Lula presidency positively so far, but we suspect returns from the country’s dollar bonds and equities will disappoint over the next couple of... 3rd October 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lula in pole position but will face hurdles in congress Left-wing former president Lula looks most likely to win the second-round run-off presidential vote on 30th October. But the surprisingly strong performance of President Bolsonaro and his allies on... 3rd October 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily How Brazil’s financial markets could perform under Lula Investors have so far taken the prospect of Lula winning Brazil’s presidential election in their stride, but we doubt the country’s markets will do as well as they did last time he was in power. 30th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Politics and fiscal policy moving in tandem Political considerations ahead of key elections in South Africa and Nigeria are likely to add to reasons to loosen fiscal policy over the coming quarters. And while that may support activity in the... 30th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil: what to watch after the election All eyes will be on Brazil’s general election on Sunday and, in this Weekly, we outline five key things to watch in the immediate aftermath of the vote. 30th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the “Bailey put” The Bank of England’s extraordinary intervention in the Gilt market yesterday highlights the increasingly difficult trade-offs facing central banks, and their problematic implications for financial... 29th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+, Lebanon re-pegging, Morocco rates, MbS to PM Reports suggest that OPEC+ is weighing up a cut to output quotas for the second meeting in a row next week, presenting a downside risk to our above-consensus GDP growth forecasts in the Gulf... 29th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does MbS’ promotion mean for Saudi Arabia? The appointment of Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) as prime minister yesterday evening cements his role as the head of the government. The crown prince already held significant... 28th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update External strains building in North Africa The Gulf countries have benefitted enormously from higher energy prices and will run large current account surpluses. But external positions have deteriorated in other parts of the region. That... 27th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Italy’s new leadership may still put more pressure on spreads Italy’s new governing coalition doesn’t seem to have troubled investors for now, but we suspect worries about debt sustainability will still result in long dated Italian government bonds struggling... 26th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Italian General Election Right-wing victory not immediate concern, but long-term risks remain The widely-anticipated right-wing coalition victory in Italy’s general election does not pose an immediate risk to bond markets... 26th September 2022 · 3 mins read
