Asia Economics Update Will Cambodia’s investment-led growth last? Hun Sen is likely to record his fifth election victory on Sunday against the backdrop of an economy riding high on the back of a Chinese investment boom. Chinese money should help to support strong... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Weak balance sheets come into focus Market concerns over fragile balance sheets have forced policymakers in a number of frontier economies to take action over the past month. Strains in the balance of payments prompted the authorities... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How much damage would a Brexit “no deal” cause? Although the more extreme warnings about the short-term impact of a “no-deal” Brexit on the economy are overdone, there is little doubt that it could deal a reasonable blow to GDP growth next year. 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland will soon enter era of weaker growth Poland’s economy is set to expand at a robust pace over the remainder of 2018, but rising inflation and tighter monetary policy will cause the economy to slow by more than is widely anticipated in... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Pre-election inflation fears misplaced Widespread fears that Nigeria’s upcoming election will spur inflation are not supported by the available evidence. We think that price pressures will continue to ease over the rest of this year. 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Cyclical recovery set to resume The recovery in Latin America stalled in Q2, but we expect regional growth to accelerate over the coming quarters and our GDP forecasts for 2018-19 are generally above consensus. The main exception is... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP defeats no-confidence vote Prime Minister Modi’s BJP comfortably defeated the vote of no-confidence initiated by opposition parties on Friday. The result isn’t a major surprise given that the BJP holds a majority in the Lok... 23rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Northern Ireland stalemate raises risk of no deal The UK Government’s Chequers proposals are still broadly intact following a tumultuous week in Parliament. The Prime Minister suggested that the proposals would also solve the Northern Ireland border... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Northern Ireland stalemate raises risk of no deal The UK Government’s Chequers proposals are still broadly intact following a tumultuous week in Parliament. The Prime Minister suggested that the proposals would also solve the Northern Ireland border... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Trade tensions likely to continue to weigh on prices There were further falls in most commodity prices this week as concerns about the negative impact on demand of heightened protectionism dampened investor sentiment. With Donald Trump threatening that... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Rate hikes coming in the Andes Central banks in Colombia and Chile are set to leave interest rates unchanged at their meetings next week, but we think rates are likely to rise sooner, and a little further, than the markets are... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC FX policy becoming more hands-on again The People’s Bank appears to be leaning against downward market pressure on the renminbi. But the depreciation it has allowed so far will already provide a cushion for China’s exporters as they face... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Trade war not the only headwind for risky assets Worries about a global trade war have already weighed on the prices of many risky assets, particularly those in Asia. And there is a growing risk that the US implements even more protectionist... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Pakistan: Major challenges await new government Whichever party wins Pakistan’s upcoming general election will take over an economy on the brink of a balance of payments crisis. Growth is likely to slow sharply regardless of who wins Wednesday’s... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Region fares well in Q2, Turkey to hike rates next week Activity data released in Russia, Turkey and Poland suggest that regional GDP growth remained strong at around 4% y/y in Q2. Among a number of monetary policy decisions due next week, we expect Turkey... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s minimum wage policy backfiring The decision earlier this week to raise the hourly minimum wage by a further 11% next year will undermine President Moon Jae-in’s goal to reduce inequality and boost private consumption growth. 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
