Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: fresh political shock and oil prices key risks to watch The fallout from the disappearance of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, has supposedly shifted investors’ attention to the Saudi government’s rising debt burden, but we think that these concerns are... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Modest slowdown masks large divergences Prospects for Europe have deteriorated somewhat as slowing global demand has begun to affect exports and a sharp rise in bond yields has darkened the outlook for Italy. Some of the major players... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: Elections will not improve long-run outlook Even if a planned election for next year passes smoothly, political uncertainty is likely to remain a drag on Thailand’s growth prospects. 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery losing steam Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will probably strengthen a touch in 2019, but growth across the region will remain weaker than consensus expectations. We think that growth in Nigeria will slow... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia and the sanctions threat The escalation of tensions between Saudi Arabia and the US over the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi is likely to weigh on local financial markets, but the Kingdom is in a strong... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Back down to earth in Q3 Japan’s economy was always likely to slow in the third quarter after the surge of output it generated in the second. But the latest data have still been rather disappointing. While investment remains... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro backtracking, Argentina’s austerity Business friendly candidate Jair Bolsonaro looks on course to win the second round of Brazil’s presidential election later this month, but recent noises from the campaign trail have called into... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor USMCA shows Trump can stand down, but headwinds build Agreements signed in recent weeks indicate that the US may be willing to de-escalate trade disputes in order to achieve face-saving deals. Elsewhere, growing economic headwinds suggest that EM export... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan and IMF start talks, equities set for further falls The head of the IMF, Christine Legarde this week set the tone for what are likely to be tough negotiations with Pakistan when she said the Fund would require Pakistan to be “absolutely transparent”... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Markets more hawkish on Hungary, Turkish lira strengthens September’s strong Hungarian inflation data – released on Tuesday – caused investors to raise their interest rate expectations, coming round to our more hawkish view. Meanwhile, a fall in inflation... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nene resigns, PDP picks candidate, Nigeria eyes eurobond The resignation of South Africa’s finance minister boosted the rand this week by demonstrating President Ramaphosa’s firm stance on corruption. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s key opposition party selected its... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly State elections come into focus The Electoral Commission confirmed this week that five state elections will take place before the end of 2018. As ever, these will have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level, and... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Banks still struggling, another look at Japan’s debts The government has indicated that it will be more lenient in applying antimonopoly legislation when assessing regional bank mergers. That should pave the way for a further consolidation of... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Missing Saudi journalist makes politics key economic risk The disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul raises fresh questions about Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s reputation as a reformer and political developments pose a growing... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Which countries are manipulating their currencies? The US Treasury is due to report soon which of its major trading partners, if any, have been manipulating their currencies for unfair advantage. Vietnam is currently the only country in Emerging Asia... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Rapid growth to continue for a while yet GDP growth has surged in recent quarters and, while it has probably peaked, we expect it to remain strong ahead of the general election in the first half of 2019. Thereafter, a focus on fiscal... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
