UK Economics Update Government’s Brexit report highlights cost of no deal Not surprisingly, the Government report, published today, on the long-run economic impact of various Brexit scenarios is probably a little too pessimistic about the fallout from a no deal Brexit, but... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update No deal Brexit hit to euro-zone would be manageable Provided that it is reasonably orderly, a “no deal Brexit” would probably reduce economic activity in the euro-zone by 0.1-0.2% points next year, though the impact would be much larger for Ireland... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit scenarios – a recap This week the Bank of England and HM Treasury will publish forecasts for the economy based on both the “deal” between the UK and the EU agreed on Sunday, and a “no deal, no transition” alternative. As... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Nov.) November’s fall in the Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) adds to evidence that the German economy is slowing, but suggests that the particular weakness of Q3 will not be repeated at the end of the... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo’s referendums, Colombia’s fiscal challenge The market reaction to the incoming Mexican government’s public consultation is unlikely to be as bad as the last one, which voted to scrap a flagship airport project. Even so, it provides more... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Oil and inflation, Ghosn and corporate governance The slump in global oil prices will deliver a windfall to Japanese firms and households but it creates a headache for the Bank of Japan: lower energy prices will knock half a percentage point off... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly All Brexit options still on the table A rejection of the Brexit deal in Parliament in mid-December remains a very real prospect. And we would not rule anything out amidst the political chaos that would follow. In our predictions based on... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What if we don’t leave the EU after all? Recent Brexit developments have increased the chances of a second referendum and the possibility of the UK staying in the EU. The lengthy run-up to a second referendum would cause uncertainty to... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Trade truce wouldn’t avert further fall in RMB, equities Expectations are low that Presidents Xi and Trump will resolve their differences at the G20 summit, but a temporary truce that puts on hold the planned US tariff hike in January is possible. In this... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly PiS backs down in EU row, Polish hawks getting louder This week’s U-turn by Poland’s government over a controversial judicial reform suggests that policymakers are adopting a less divisive stance in the run-up to next year’s elections. While this is... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Trade war not to blame for Q3 slowdown A lot of commentary has blamed the slowdown in Asian GDP growth in the third quarter on the trade war between the US and China. We think these claims are misguided. The most obvious explanation for... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Immigration curbs & recession risks Immigration has been very strong in New Zealand in recent years but we think it will slow sharply over the next couple of years. By contrast, we don’t think that the Australian government will... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly RBI still battling, fuel price cuts, Maharashtra protests The RBI’s highly-publicised board meeting passed without much incident this week, but this has by no means eased the tensions between the central bank and government, nor concerns over the RBI’s... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Future Declaration won’t placate the Brexiteers The Political Declaration on the future relationship between the UK and the EU sketches out an “ambitious” Canada-style free trade agreement. However, the absence of a solution to the Northern Ireland... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update No deal Brexit would be a mixed bag for UK assets We think that the performance of UK financial assets would be varied in the event of a no deal Brexit, which has become increasing likely given the recent political chaos in Westminster. 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Congress goes after MbS, but further sanctions unlikely President Trump’s statement this week supporting US ties with Saudi Arabia suggests that attempts by Congress to force a firmer response to the murder of Jamal Khashoggi are unlikely to result in... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
