Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Monetary policy divergences The Norges Bank’s tightening cycle began at the end of last month and we suspect that investors are underestimating the pace of rate hikes to come. By contrast, the Riskbank looks set to leave... 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rising inflationary pressures to prompt tightening Domestic demand is set to rebound from recent lockdowns and labour markets should remain tight. Meanwhile, soaring energy and food prices will keep inflation high for a prolonged period. To be sure... 14th October 2021 · 25 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack Dollar reaches a crossroad The US dollar has rallied to its strongest level since November 2020, and we think it will remain strong on the back of the Fed’s hawkish shift and ongoing uncertainty around the global recovery. 11th October 2021 · 10 mins read
India Economic Outlook Recovery enters a slower phase Following a rapid rebound from the second virus wave, India’s economy is beginning to lose some steam. And with vaccination coverage still low, downside risks remain significant. Under these... 11th October 2021 · 20 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Castillo moderates, Amlo’s intervention & ailing autos President Castillo’s cabinet reshuffle in Peru this week points towards more pragmatic policymaking which, while a possible headwind to near-term growth, should boost Peru’s medium- to long-term... 8th October 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Good politics on wages meets bad economics The government’s plan to decrease the UK’s reliance on migrant labour in order to boost wages may be good politics, but it is not good economics. While labour shortages may push up wages in some... 8th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Headwinds strengthening Supply shortages and rising energy prices are becoming stronger headwinds to the euro-zone recovery. The latest data from Germany showed sharp falls in industrial orders and production, with... 7th October 2021 · 11 mins read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling deal may only delay the inevitable The entrenched positions of both sides suggest the deal to suspend the debt ceiling until December may only delay rather than avert a crisis. And in that scenario, we doubt that the Treasury minting a... 7th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Conditions for strong recovery finally in place With the Delta wave having ebbed and the majority of the population now fully vaccinated, we expect a strong rebound in domestic demand over the coming months. But the inflation concerns that hang... 7th October 2021 · 21 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What to expect from the next Czech government The Czech parliamentary election that kicks off on Friday looks to be one of the most unpredictable for some time. A victory for the incumbent ANO party would continue the recent trend of loose fiscal... 6th October 2021 · 21 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The vaccine tide is slowly turning A likely flood of exports from India and China, as well as a ramping up of donations from the US, should help to significantly boost vaccine supply for the many poor EMs in Africa and South and South... 6th October 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly A week is a long time in politics Prime Minister Harold Wilson’s quip that “a week is a long time in politics”, which he made during one of the UK’s seemingly never-ending crises in the 1960s, aptly describes the Democratic Party’s... 1st October 2021 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly PacMan joins the race, baht set for further falls The next presidential election in the Philippines is not until May, but the contest is already generating plenty of headlines with former boxing world champion Manny Pacquiao (PacMan to his fans) this... 1st October 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil rallies, Bahrain VAT hike, Tunisia gets a new PM The price of oil hit its highest level in nearly three years this week and, combined with rising oil output, will help support an improvement in budget and current account positions in the Gulf. This... 30th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Debt restructuring talks inching forward The threat of messy outcomes to Sub-Saharan Africa’s debt problems seems to have diminished recently. In Zambia, the new administration vowed to tackle debt problems and press on with restructuring... 30th September 2021 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Early signs of second-round effects from soaring prices The RBA expects headline inflation to drop back from 3.8% in Q2 to 1.5% by mid-2022. By contrast, we now only expect it to fall to 2.5% over this period, reflecting the pass-through from soaring coal... 30th September 2021 · 11 mins read
