UK Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) & Money and Credit (Jan.) February’s manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector has lost some momentum in Q1. But the details of the survey were more encouraging, and there is little sign in the latest money and credit figures... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Euro-zone lending growth made a strong start to the year. And with interest rates likely to rise only slowly as the ECB normalises policy, bank lending looks set to continue supporting economic growth... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household spending losing momentum There are some tentative signs that the past tightening in mortgage rules and increase in interest rates are beginning to have an impact beyond housing by negatively impacting household spending too... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Import duty hikes unlikely to aid local manufacturing Recent hikes to import duties on various goods appear to be an attempt by Prime Minister Modi and the BJP to shore up popular support ahead of a clutch of state elections this year, and the general... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Is Japan overheating? Japan’s economy recorded an eighth consecutive quarter of growth in Q4, the longest uninterrupted run of expansion since the late 1980s. Unemployment is very low, inflation has started to pick up... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions little affected by market sell-off The sell-off in financial markets, which was triggered by a reassessment of the outlook for US inflation and interest rates, has meant that government bond yields have jumped. But these recent moves... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: private sector credit to support pick-up in growth Bank lending to Egypt’s private sector has been weak for a number of years as the government has leaned on local banks to purchase government bonds, crowding out credit to the rest of the economy. But... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) Chinese banks issued a record amount of new loans last month. But that happens at the start of almost every year. While the eye-popping new loan numbers will grab the headlines, the more important... 12th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly An oasis of record low interest rates If global equity markets are fearing higher interest rates, as this week’s fall suggest, then Australia and New Zealand offer something of an oasis as both the RBA and RBNZ dropped some heavy hints... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor EM credit spreads likely to rise further EM credit spreads remain very tight by historical standards, despite picking up a bit in the wake of the chaos in global equity markets in the past few days. However, their current low levels do not... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA hints it’s in no rush to raise rates The jitters in the financial markets are due to concerns that global interest rates will rise rapidly, but the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) did its part to calm fears by leaving interest rates at... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Senior Loan Officer Survey (Jan.) The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey points to a reacceleration in the growth rate of business loans, although auto loans look set to weaken further. 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the recent decline in EM credit spreads justified? The stripped spread of the JP Morgan EMBI Global (which is comprised of sovereign dollar-denominated bonds) has continued to fall this year, and has rarely been lower in the post-financial crisis era... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Credit worries starting to recede in places, but risks remain Credit growth has continued to slow in some of the countries, namely Thailand and Malaysia, we had previously identified as being at risk from a rapid build-up of private sector debt. However, risks... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch ECB and BoJ in no rush to follow the Fed Contrary to suggestions that the ECB and Bank of Japan are gearing up to tighten monetary policy sooner than expected, we think they will be happy to trail a long way behind the Fed and Bank of... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Spencer to play it safe at his penultimate meeting The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will almost certainly leave the official cash rate on hold at 1.75% at its policy meeting on Thursday 8th February and, in the accompanying Monetary Policy... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
