Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA glosses over weaker economic news The upbeat tone of the comments by the Reserve Bank of Australia after it left interest rates at the record low of 1.5% for the 25th month today is starting to grate more obviously with the incoming... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM corporate credit spreads have a lot further to rise Despite rising since January, emerging market (EM) corporate credit spreads remain very tight by past standards and relative to those of their counterparts elsewhere in the world. We think that this... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Households holding up well Australian households have been more resilient to low income growth and falling house prices than we expected. After rising by just 0.3% q/q in the first quarter, the solid rises in retail sales in... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turkey in crisis Turkey plunged into a full-blown currency crisis this month following the imposition of US sanctions and an absence of (or refusal to pursue) an orthodox policy response. Inflation, which was already... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s debt repayment crunch Turkey’s economy has so far managed to come through the worst of the plunge in the lira without suffering acute financial stress. That said, the banking sector faces a large external debt repayment... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Equities continue to scale new highs Indian equities have continued to surge in August, with the benchmark Sensex stock index rising to a fresh record high of over 38,000 today. The recent strong performance in the Sensex compared to... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Turkish contagion, BoJ’s helping hand A former BoJ executive suggested that the Bank of Japan may tolerate 10-year yields rising to 0.4% even while keeping its official target at zero. This would lift trading income, increase returns on... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Bad loans on the rise Commercial banks’ non-performing loans (NPL) rose by RMB183bn in Q2, the biggest increase in over a decade. On paper, bad loans now make up just under 2% of all loans, the highest ratio since the... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America’s banks in good shape Turkey’s currency crisis, which could cause problems in its banking sector, has put the spotlight on EM banking vulnerabilities more generally. But while we had concerns about the health of Latin... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey: what next? The plunge in the Turkish lira is likely to push inflation above 20% and tip the economy into recession in the coming months. Our base case is that GDP growth will now average 3.0% over 2018 as a... 15th August 2018 · 15 mins read
Europe Economics Update Portugal’s banks to support investment-led growth Portugal’s banks have strengthened their balance sheets significantly and look set to support economic growth over the coming years. However, the already-high level of private sector debt is a concern... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Would abolishing cash help overcome deflation? Abolishing cash would allow the Bank of Japan to cut interest rates deeper into negative territory. But in a society where cash transactions are still widespread, such a move would prove deeply... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Where do the risks in Turkey’s banking sector lie? Turkish policymakers have taken steps to support local banks today, but concerns have continued to mount about the health of the sector. Banks appear to hedge all their on-balance sheet FX mismatches... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jul.) Growth in bank lending picked up last month to the fastest pace this year. However, a further slowdown in other forms of credit, including shadow financing, mean that broad credit growth continued to... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What does the crisis in Turkey mean for Asia? There is a good chance that the recent volatility in financial markets triggered by the crisis in Turkey will prompt Bank Indonesia into hiking interest rates at its meeting on Wednesday. For most... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack 0.1% is the new 0% The Bank of Japan’s decision to allow JGB yields to deviate by 0.2 percentage points rather than 0.1 percentage points from its 0% target suggests that long-term bond yields will settle at a slightly... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
