Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Missing the global tightening cycle Our forecasts suggest that by the time the Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand get round to raising interest rates from record lows, the US Fed will already be cutting them. We think that a... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update How would a deal with the IMF help Pakistan As the price for a deal with Pakistan, the IMF is likely to demand a further sharp tightening in fiscal and monetary policy as well as structural reforms aimed at raising more revenue and improving... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Sensex has further to fall, winter MSP hikes contained We think that the recent fall in Indian equities – down by another 4% this week – has further to run. Domestically, concerns over the scale of balance sheet problems in the shadow banking sector will... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s banks still the weakest link Amid the concern about the state of Italy’s public finances, the banks remain the country’s weakest link. Indeed, despite improvements over the past few years, the banking sector is still too weak to... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Aug.) August’s household borrowing figures provided further signs that consumers’ appetite for unsecured borrowing is waning. But the slowdown is arguably a welcome development since it eases concerns that... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3) The deterioration in business conditions in the Q3 Tankan supports our view that GDP growth slowed last quarter. That said, firms remain optimistic about the outlook for capital spending and the... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish and Russian markets start to settle Turkish financial markets rallied this week amid signs of improving foreign relations and easing strains in the banking sector, but the latest data releases add to the evidence that the economy is... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Shadow banks in the spotlight After spending years in the background amid the well-documented struggles of state-owned banks, India’s “shadow” banking sector has been thrust into the spotlight over the past week following news... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget deficit, Royal Commission and election risk The shrinking budget deficit gives the Coalition government a bit more fiscal ammunition to deploy ahead of Australia’s next Federal election, while there is no way of knowing at this stage how the... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) A combination of the Fed’s balance sheet rundown and rising interest rates have pushed narrow money growth down to an eight-year low, but growth in the broader money and credit aggregates have held up... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What to look for in Argentina’s new IMF deal With Argentina reportedly set to announce a new and improved IMF credit line later today, in this Update we outline what investors should look out for in the deal. 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack A good year for growth The surprising strength of economic growth in the second quarter has led us to revise up our forecasts for GDP growth in the 2018 calendar year from 2.5% to 3.2% for Australia and from 2.5% to 2.7%... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Our new forecasts and the RBA’s trade war fears After revamping all our forecasts, we have concluded that the RBA and the RBNZ probably won’t raise interest rates until late in 2020 and late in 2021 respectively. That explains why we now expect the... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Bank merger another step in right direction The government’s announcement this week that it will merge three state-run banks is another step in the right direction towards fixing the beleaguered banking system, following on from the... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What do EM car sales tell us? The latest EM auto sales figures echo survey data and financial indicators in suggesting that economic disruption following recent market turbulence has so far been contained to Turkey and Argentina... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Do financial markets pose a risk to the global economy? Ten years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there are concerns that the financial markets will bring the global economy to its knees again. We do not think, however, that they will be a major... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
