China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) Growth in broad credit weakened further in November, suggesting that policymakers will need to increase support over the coming months in order to stabilise economic growth. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Domestic debt deleveraging continues The Fed’s latest Financial Accounts release shows that total domestic credit market debt fell back to a 12-year low of 326% of GDP in the third quarter, from a peak of 370% in early 2009. Admittedly... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly RBI confusion, Rajasthan election Some have interpreted the small cuts to the statutory liquidity ratio announced by the RBI this week as evidence that the central bank is loosening policy, but we disagree. Meanwhile, the state... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Calm in Italy won’t last We think that this week’s decline in Italian bond yields will be reversed before long, weighing on the economy. Meanwhile, data released this week showed that core inflation in the euro-zone edged... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Budget surplus, looser lending restrictions The rapid decline in the budget deficit suggests that the Government may announce higher spending or tax cuts in next year’s Budget. And Labor has pledged to eliminate a number of tax privileges if it... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Oct.) Annual consumer credit growth continued to slow in October, reaching a three-year low, providing further evidence that consumers’ appetite for unsecured debt is waning a little. But so long as a... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Narrow money growth continues to slow, but that is mainly due to rising interest rates, which have reduced the portfolio demand for money. The stronger pace of growth in both broad money and bank... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rising corporate credit spreads not just an oil story The recent pick-up in US corporate credit spreads is more than just a response to the slump in oil prices over the past couple of months. We think that it also reflects worries about the outlook for... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Italy’s now-junk credit spread will probably get bigger Italian government bonds are now trading like “junk”, but we think that the spread between the yields of 10-year BTPs and German Bunds will increase even more in 2019 as Italy’s problems escalate and... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Weak loan demand points to slower GDP growth The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey suggests that the stagnation in third-quarter business equipment investment was no one-off and that there are few signs of a turnaround in the slumping... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.) The pace of borrowing hit fresh lows in October, after a push by local governments to shore up infrastructure spending failed to have a lasting impact. Policymakers will therefore need to take further... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update First thoughts on Mozambique’s debt deal The Mozambican government’s preliminary agreement to restructure its eurobond looks like an important first step out of its long-running debt saga. But even if this goes ahead, significant fiscal... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank stress tests highlight Italy risks The EU bank stress tests suggest that even in a severe economic downturn, the region’s largest lenders would remain solvent. That said, the EBA’s very pessimistic “adverse scenario” might still be too... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional slowdown to continue Growth in most of Emerging Europe will continue to slow over the next couple of years, and by more than most expect. The slowdown is set to be sharpest in Turkey, where the recent currency crisis will... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Renminbi to break through 7.0 before long The People’s Bank (PBOC) appears to have stepped up intervention recently to support the renminbi as it has approached 7.0 to the US dollar. Many are talking about that line as a psychological... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Sep.) September’s household borrowing figures provided further signs that consumers are becoming more wary about loading up on unsecured debt. But households remain upbeat about their financial position so... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
