Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank, Riksbank and ECB to converge on 3% With economic activity and inflation both ending last year a bit stronger than anticipated, central banks are on track to deliver more policy tightening in the coming weeks, beginning with a 25bp hike... 13th January 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee policies: solutions in need of problems Policymakers in India have been talking up prospects for the rupee settlement mechanism as well as the recently-piloted central bank digital currency, the so-called "e-rupee". But while there are... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update A faster-than-expected turnaround We had expected disruption from China’s reopening wave of COVID infections to weigh heavily on activity well into Q1. But there is mounting evidence that much of China’s population has already been... 12th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB tightening starting to take effect November’s money and credit data showed that the effects of tighter ECB policy were only just starting to be felt. So while some of the recent economic data have been a bit stronger than expected, the... 11th January 2023 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) The downturn in credit growth extended in December amid the economic disruption from reopening. But the worst of the disruption may have already passed. The shift toward living with COVID and policy... 10th January 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Nov.) November’s money and credit figures showed further signs that higher interest rates are dampening activity, particularly in the housing market. This will be a constant theme over the year ahead... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Three years on It is three years since a cluster of cases of severe pneumonia started to draw attention in Wuhan. Chart 1 maps economic developments in China since then. The blue bars show cumulative growth since... 4th January 2023 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Households increase savings despite falling real incomes The economy contracted by more than we previously thought in Q3 2022. But the most surprising thing we learnt was that the saving rate leapt from 6.7% in Q2 to 9.0% in Q3 as households on aggregate... 23rd December 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Three key questions for 2023 In our final Weekly of 2022 we explore three key themes for the coming year – when policy loosening will come onto the agenda, whether there are further signs of a growing electronics ecosystem, and... 23rd December 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update The costs of the BoJ’s policy shift for investors The jump in bond yields and the further strengthening of the yen following the widening of the Bank of Japan’s tolerance band for 10-year JGB yields will lower the value of assets owned by Japanese... 21st December 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Recession will do little to dampen price pressures We think the euro-zone is now at the start of a recession, driven by high inflation, tightening financial conditions and weak external demand, and anticipate two quarters of contraction followed by a... 19th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook 2023 marked by recession and disinflation We continue to expect the world to slip into recession in 2023 as the effects of high inflation and rising interest rates are felt. Our forecasts are below the consensus across the board but... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Lending rates playing catch up Data released this week reinforce our view that domestic demand is softening in response to higher interest rates. And with the rise in lending rates still having further to run to fully reflect the... 16th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update QT won’t stop rates from rising further Today’s 50bp rate hike came alongside hawkish comments which are consistent with our view that the deposit rate will peak at 3%, significantly higher than the consensus forecast and a touch above what... 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
