China Chart Pack Three years on It is three years since a cluster of cases of severe pneumonia started to draw attention in Wuhan. Chart 1 maps economic developments in China since then. The blue bars show cumulative growth since... 4th January 2023 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Households increase savings despite falling real incomes The economy contracted by more than we previously thought in Q3 2022. But the most surprising thing we learnt was that the saving rate leapt from 6.7% in Q2 to 9.0% in Q3 as households on aggregate... 23rd December 2022 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Three key questions for 2023 In our final Weekly of 2022 we explore three key themes for the coming year – when policy loosening will come onto the agenda, whether there are further signs of a growing electronics ecosystem, and... 23rd December 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update The costs of the BoJ’s policy shift for investors The jump in bond yields and the further strengthening of the yen following the widening of the Bank of Japan’s tolerance band for 10-year JGB yields will lower the value of assets owned by Japanese... 21st December 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Recession will do little to dampen price pressures We think the euro-zone is now at the start of a recession, driven by high inflation, tightening financial conditions and weak external demand, and anticipate two quarters of contraction followed by a... 19th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook 2023 marked by recession and disinflation We continue to expect the world to slip into recession in 2023 as the effects of high inflation and rising interest rates are felt. Our forecasts are below the consensus across the board but... 19th December 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Lending rates playing catch up Data released this week reinforce our view that domestic demand is softening in response to higher interest rates. And with the rise in lending rates still having further to run to fully reflect the... 16th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update QT won’t stop rates from rising further Today’s 50bp rate hike came alongside hawkish comments which are consistent with our view that the deposit rate will peak at 3%, significantly higher than the consensus forecast and a touch above what... 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB hikes by 50bp, hints at more to come The SNB’s 50bp rate hike, to 1.00%, was in line with expectations but, more importantly, the Bank also raised its medium-term inflation forecast slightly, hinting that policymakers believe future... 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Only one more hike to come from the Norges Bank Today’s 25bp rate increase by the Norges Bank, to 2.75%, takes it very close to the end of its tightening cycle. But we think the Bank is a long way from pivoting to loosening policy. 15th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil sectors to fuel Gulf slowdown Growth across the Middle East and North Africa is set to slow sharply, and by more than most expect, next year. Oil output cuts will weigh on the Gulf even as fiscal policy stays loose. And while IMF... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Winter recession in motion Emerging European economies are set for recessions this winter as the impact of high inflation, tight financial conditions and weakening external demand take their toll. Our GDP forecasts for 2023 are... 12th December 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) Credit growth has now reversed all of its modest acceleration over the past year, a clear sign that monetary easing has failed to gain traction due to virus disruption and waning confidence among... 12th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Wage growth strong; recession underway Policymakers may have taken some heart from the latest data published by Indeed which suggests that wage growth has started to edge down. However, wage growth is still very strong and other measures... 9th December 2022 · 7 mins read
