UK Data Response Money & Credit (Dec.) December’s money and credit figures revealed that higher interest rates further dampened economic activity at the end of last year. Moreover, the drag on activity will continue to intensify this year... 31st January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank lending Survey (Q4 2022) Much like the latest money and credit data, the Q4 Bank Lending Survey painted a much more downbeat picture of economic prospects than the latest business surveys. Banks are tightening their lending... 31st January 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Fixed-rate loans delay and reduce effect of higher rates The shift away from floating-rate to fixed-rate mortgages presents risks as well as benefits. It will protect homeowners who are lucky enough to have a long time remaining on their fixed rate contract... 30th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Dec.) December’s worse-than-expected public finances figures suggest the Chancellor will wait until closer to the next election before announcing any significant tax cuts and/or spending rises. 24th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss franc likely to remain broadly stable We had previously forecast the Swiss franc to rise against the euro in the first half of the year as we thought the ECB would raise interest rates a bit less than the market anticipated and that there... 20th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account suggests two more 50bp hikes likely The account of the December meeting, along with data released since then and recent comments from policymakers, suggest the ECB will raise its deposit rate from 2% to 3% by March rather than May as we... 19th January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 2022) The Q4 2022 Credit Conditions Survey shows that while lenders tightened lending criteria in the aftermath of the “mini” budget, the main constraint on lending volumes was a collapse in demand due to... 19th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: will falls in the pound trigger a public debt crisis? The recent falls in the Egyptian pound pose a threat to Egypt’s fragile public debt dynamics but we think that the government will be able to muddle through. The key risk is that the government shifts... 18th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank, Riksbank and ECB to converge on 3% With economic activity and inflation both ending last year a bit stronger than anticipated, central banks are on track to deliver more policy tightening in the coming weeks, beginning with a 25bp hike... 13th January 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee policies: solutions in need of problems Policymakers in India have been talking up prospects for the rupee settlement mechanism as well as the recently-piloted central bank digital currency, the so-called "e-rupee". But while there are... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update A faster-than-expected turnaround We had expected disruption from China’s reopening wave of COVID infections to weigh heavily on activity well into Q1. But there is mounting evidence that much of China’s population has already been... 12th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB tightening starting to take effect November’s money and credit data showed that the effects of tighter ECB policy were only just starting to be felt. So while some of the recent economic data have been a bit stronger than expected, the... 11th January 2023 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) The downturn in credit growth extended in December amid the economic disruption from reopening. But the worst of the disruption may have already passed. The shift toward living with COVID and policy... 10th January 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Nov.) November’s money and credit figures showed further signs that higher interest rates are dampening activity, particularly in the housing market. This will be a constant theme over the year ahead... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
