Commodities Update First thoughts on banking stress and commodity prices Commodity prices have tumbled as concern about a banking crisis has grown. The downside risks to our forecasts, which we recently attributed to higher interest rates, now include banking sector stress... 16th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update How could the situation escalate? We are resending this publication to include clients of our Property Services. We have already outlined some different scenarios of how things might evolve from here and it is still possible that the... 16th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at EMs’ exposure to bank flows A key channel through which emerging markets could be affected by the strains in the global banking sector is if lending by foreign banks falls sharply. On this front, EMs’ vulnerabilities have eased... 16th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly How do the SVB and Credit Suisse crises affect MENA? The turmoil in the global banking sector could put currencies in North Africa under pressure if strains intensify and capital inflows dry up, which could hasten a sovereign default in Tunisia. For the... 16th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: The Bank of England’s March interest rate decision 1679583600 How will the Bank of England play its March rate decision following recent turmoil in the US and European banking sectors?
Capital Daily ECB decision is a test of the conundrum facing central banks The renewed sell-off in global bank equities today, centring on Credit Suisse, is evidence that concerns about the resilience of the banking sector are now spreading outside of the US. There are still... 15th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing would be main casualty of SVB contagion The Canadian banking sector is heavily concentrated, reducing the risk that deposit runs at small lenders might trigger a broader crisis of confidence for the entire sector. As things stand, the... 14th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The SVB collapse & contagion risks in EMs At the time of writing, financial markets appear to be stabilising after the turmoil caused by the collapse of SVB. And it doesn’t look like EMs have suffered large capital outflows or strains in... 14th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Monetary policy and markets in the wake of SVB How the fallout from events so far affects the path of the federal funds rate, and how that interacts with inflation and economic growth, will be crucial, in our view, to how markets evolve over the... 14th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Three scenarios for how the SVB fallout will evolve Given the large amount of uncertainty about how the fallout from SVB’s collapse will evolve, we have grouped possible outcomes into three broadbrush scenarios. Only in the worst scenario of financial... 14th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: What does banking sector turmoil mean for March central bank decisions? 1678978800 Starting with the ECB today, some major central bank decisions are due in the shadow of recent banking sector turmoil.
