Global Economic Outlook From cost of living crisis to banking crisis? The strongest headwind for the global economy has shifted from an energy crisis and the related squeeze on real incomes to a potential banking crisis and associated drag on credit. Since banks are... 30th March 2023 · 46 mins read
Event Drop-In: How has bank turmoil affected the financial markets outlook? 1680616800 With the dust settling on the recent turmoil in US and European banks, economists from across our financial markets coverage assessed the damage to the outlook for bonds, equities and FX.
UK Economics Update No flight in bank deposits, but bank lending growth easing While households and businesses took further advantage of rising interest rates in February by moving money into bank accounts with higher rates, they are not withdrawing money from the overall... 30th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Asian banks in decent shape, but credit risks lurk The turmoil in the global banking system over the past month has had a limited impact on Asia – currencies have held up well and outflows of capital have been small. And in general, banking sectors in... 30th March 2023 · 16 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook MENA set for a much weaker 2023 Growth across the Middle East and North Africa is set to slow sharply, and by more than most expect, in 2023. IMF deals will help to contain balance of payments strains in the non-Gulf economies but... 30th March 2023 · 25 mins read
Japan Economics Update Credit risk lurking in the shadows Japanese banks have nearly doubled their lending to overseas non-bank financial intermediaries over the past decade. Some of this reflects purchases of collateralised loan obligations, most of which... 30th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the contagion risk from US commercial property During the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), non-US investors’ ownership of US residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) was a key way in which they were exposed to problems in the US housing market... 29th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Full effects of high interest rates yet to be felt The economy made a strong start to 2023, but we continue to expect a moderate recession this year as high interest rates feed through and the banking issues in the US weigh on exports. The downturn... 29th March 2023 · 21 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs weather the global banking storm Spill-overs to EMs from the turmoil in the global banking system have been limited. There don’t appear to be signs of strain in EM banks themselves, outflows of capital have been small and, in general... 29th March 2023 · 9 mins read
UK Data Response Money & Credit (Feb.) February’s money and credit data suggest that higher interest rates were a further drag on lending in February, particularly in the housing market. That’s before the effects of the recent concerns... 29th March 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Reopening recovery to shift down a gear Much of the economic boost from China’s reopening has already happened. While there is still some upside to consumer and services activity, weakened balance sheets and limited policy support mean the... 29th March 2023 · 23 mins read
Capital Daily Surge in CMBS spreads may not have run its course The recent surge in the yield spreads of US BBB-rated commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) over Treasuries underscores the risks to US regional banks from their significant exposure to the... 28th March 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Recession needed to solve the inflation problem While CPI inflation will fall from 10.4% to around 3.5% this year, we think a recession involving a peak-to-trough fall in real GDP of around 1.0% is needed to ensure that domestic price pressures... 28th March 2023 · 27 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep policy tight despite recession The euro-zone economy is set to perform much worse than consensus forecasts suggest over the next two years, with a recession looking likely. That is mainly because monetary policy and bank lending... 28th March 2023 · 27 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Are EMs also at risk from bank turmoil? 1680789600 Recent turmoil in the banking sector may have been a US and European story, but there are potentially important angles for Emerging Market investors.
