Credit crisis surges to top of investors’ list of worries “Regardless of whether more financial institutions run into trouble, it is looking increasingly likely that we will see a bigger tightening of credit conditions which will weigh on economic activity,”... 21st March 2023 · Financial Times
Capital Daily Even if the worst is over for banks, the outlook remains bleak A risk-on mood has prevailed today amid easing concerns over the US banking system. That seems to reflect a view that intervention, perhaps including an extension of FDIC insurance to deposits above... 21st March 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: revisiting credit risks Spillovers from the global banking crisis to EMs appear limited so far. Encouragingly, too, most EM banks appear to be well placed to weather a period of rising non-performing loans resulting from... 21st March 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Feb.) Despite February’s worse-than-expected public finances figures, we still think the Chancellor may have more headroom to cut taxes/raise spending later this year. But the big risk is that a further... 21st March 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Quantifying the risks from banks’ foreign claims With bond yields now dropping back again, the drag from unrealised losses on banks’ capital ratios should start to reverse. However, a sharp increase in losses on banks’ foreign loan portfolio has yet... 21st March 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the Swiss shotgun wedding Financial markets have greeted the second consecutive weekend bank rescue/resolution – this time in Switzerland – with cautious optimism. But there is still an enormous amount of uncertainty about... 20th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor EMs, in general, don’t appear to have suffered large capital outflows over the past 10 days or so amid the turmoil in the global banking sector. But some countries with large current account deficits... 20th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update What next after Credit Suisse? While the Credit Suisse rescue might draw a line under that particular institution’s problems, it is clear that confidence in the financial sector overall is still extremely fragile. So regardless of... 20th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Banking sector turmoil – What next after Credit Suisse? 1679320800 Markets remain in a febrile state despite the weekend deal for UBS to buy Credit Suisse and a joint central bank statement pledge to beef up dollar liquidity support. What will it take to rest
Commodities Weekly Prices battered, financial conditions to be in focus Commodity markets were not spared the effects of widespread turmoil in the global banking system. Most prices ended the week lower as investors fled risky assets. The gold and silver prices bucked... 17th March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Banking turmoil not (yet) enough to stop Fed hike Although the banking crisis appears to be far from over and new problems could yet emerge over the coming days, we still expect the Fed to push ahead with a 25bp rate hike at the FOMC meeting next... 17th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banking turmoil spillovers, Argentina’s IMF loan Latin America's direct exposure to SVB and Credit Suisse is limited, but the turmoil is still likely to have indirect effects on the region. To the extent that growth in the US is weaker, Mexican... 17th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ripples of global banking turmoil in Sub-Saharan Africa Strains in the global banking system have roiled financial markets, but in Sub-Saharan Africa the main impact of the turmoil is likely to feed through via lower commodity prices and tighter external... 17th March 2023 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly China has its own banking sector vulnerabilities China’s financial system has limited direct exposure to foreign banks. But recent global banking strains still pose some downside risk to the country’s economy. And China’s banking sector has... 17th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Credit Suisse still under scrutiny The huge lifeline offered to Credit Suisse by the SNB this week has resolved its immediate liquidity problems but it may not be the end of the story given the bank's underlying problems. Meanwhile, we... 17th March 2023 · 5 mins read