Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Labour Market (May 26) 30th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook CUSMA uncertainty to slow recovery, delay rate hikes Uncertainty over CUSMA and lower immigration will slow the recovery, with average annual GDP growth a below-consensus 0.5% this year. A return to firmer growth of 1.7% in 2027 should see core price... 29th June 2026 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Update German pension reform encouraging, but will take time Germany’s pension reforms should slow the rise in public sector pension spending a little, encourage people to remain in work for longer, and channel more savings into equities. But the benefits of... 29th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA still set to hike, housing tax changes pass Australia’s latest activity and labour market data continue to point to softer momentum, but the CPI figures suggest that underlying inflation pressures have not yet been tamed. Accordingly, we still... 26th June 2026 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Summer festival fever to keep hiring momentum intact The June Employment Report, due a day earlier than usual (Thursday July 2nd), is likely to show another solid 110,000 gain in non-farm payrolls, with hiring supported by major summer events, including... 25th June 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economic Outlook AI boom to power growth and keep core inflation firm The economy is in the middle of an AI-related capex boom and, with some of the prior policy-related headwinds now fading, we expect average annual GDP growth to pick-up to an above-consensus 2.5% next... 25th June 2026 · 17 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks to hike as inflation concerns dominate The RBA has already shifted policy back to restrictive territory and we expect it to tighten settings a bit further, as it seeks to ensure that activity slows sufficiently to bring inflation under... 25th June 2026 · 20 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Household Spending & Labour Market (May 26) The May household spending and labour market data don’t provide a strong signal about the RBA’s next move. 25th June 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook One and done for the ECB Provided that the deal to re-open the Strait of Hormuz results in a sustained recovery in energy flows, the damage to economic activity in the euro-zone will prove to be mild and brief. Excluding... 23rd June 2026 · 25 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Fall in inflation to 2.0% in 2027 to trigger rate cuts We doubt the Bank of England will follow in the footsteps of some other central banks by raising interest rates. In fact, our economic forecasts are consistent with it cutting rates from 3.75% to 3.00... 23rd June 2026 · 15 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will lift rates to neutral level of 2% by end-2027 The economy will lose some momentum over the coming quarters as higher inflation weighs on real household incomes. But the Bank of Japan will be more worried about the upside risks to inflation and we... 23rd June 2026 · 18 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (June 2026) The ceasefire has pushed us closer to our baseline scenario in which a return of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz limits the economic damage from the conflict and allows global inflation to... 22nd June 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Apr./May 2026) Signs that the labour market may be starting to stabilise makes us a bit less confident in our view that second-round effects won’t prevent inflation returning to 2.0% next year. We still think the... 18th June 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus AI’s global economic shockwaves AI’s effects so far primarily reflect a boost to demand from infrastructure spending. A supply-side improvement from efficiency gains will come, but we continue to expect these to arrive gradually in... 16th June 2026 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA leaves door ajar for further tightening While the Reserve Bank of Australia predictably left rates unchanged today, it clearly signalled that it was far too early for it to declare victory in its battle against inflation. With underlying... 16th June 2026 · 3 mins read
