Africa Economics Weekly China trade access, SA unemployment, Kenya budget China’s pledge to provide tariff-free access to imports from Africa is a clear effort to strengthen ties as the US disengages from the region, and also appears to be a concessions to African leaders... 13th June 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Chancellor’s fingers are all over weak employment The Chancellor would have hoped that her Spending Review would leave us all talking about how her policies have improved the economic outlook. Instead, the most striking development of the week was... 13th June 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update German fiscal stimulus won’t boost inflation much The upcoming fiscal stimulus in Germany will boost core inflation a bit, but we think the effect will be small and that the core rate will average just over 2% in 2026 and 2027. The stimulus will have... 12th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank in no rush to start cutting We expect Norges Bank to wait a bit longer before it finally starts to cut interest rates. And as the economy is growing at a decent pace and the labour market is still tight, the Bank is likely to... 12th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (June 2025) The economy faces a prolonged period of weak growth as US tariffs and uncertainty over the future of the USMCA weigh on exports and investment. We forecast quarterly GDP growth of less than 1%... 11th June 2025 · 0 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BOJ Watch: Bank of Japan will resume tightening in October We suspect that the Bank of Japan will stick to its downbeat outlook for economic activity at its upcoming meeting. However, we doubt that trade tensions will weigh on inflation as much as... 10th June 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Apr./May 2025) With payrolls plunging, the unemployment rate climbing and wage growth easing, today’s labour market release leaves us more confident in our view that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from... 10th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Consumers still spending, births falling Japanese households are doing better than had seemed to be the case, with data this week giving upbeat signals on both wages and consumer spending. They are not, however, having babies: fifty years... 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (May 2025) The rise in employment in May was better than expected but, paired with recent data, still shows that the labour market is struggling. We are therefore sticking to our view that the Bank of Canada... 6th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (May 2025) The 139,000 gain in non-farm payrolls was not as good as it looks, given its narrow breadth and the 95,000 downgrade to payroll gains over the prior two months. Nevertheless, it shows that tariffs are... 6th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How fast will euro-zone wage growth fall? Wage growth looks set to slow from 4.5% last year to around 3% by the end of 2025, leaving it within touching distance of the 2.5% rate we think is consistent with the ECB’s inflation target. 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Still strong immigration will push unemployment higher Visa approvals for temporary residents have picked up, which suggests that, rather than contracting as the government previously outlined, the population will continue to grow this year. This will... 5th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Labour Cash Earnings (Apr. 2025) With base pay growth on a new upswing, we think the Bank of Japan will restart its hiking cycle before long. 5th June 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update It’s only a matter of time before UK wage growth slows According to the measures of wage growth that we consider the most useful and the fundamentals of the recent easing in the demand for labour relative to the supply, it is only a matter of time before... 4th June 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jun. 2025) The strong start to the year shouldn’t be mistaken as a sign the UK economy will be able to shrug off the large rises in business taxes that took effect in April and the lingering uncertainty over US... 4th June 2025 · 1 min read
US Economics Update JOLTS data continue to show a healthy labour market April’s JOLTS data suggest the labour market remained healthy at the start of the second quarter, with job openings rising and layoffs low. While there are some pockets of weakness in areas most at... 3rd June 2025 · 2 mins read
