Europe Economics Update What history tells us about second-round effects in the EZ There have rarely been significant second-round effects from higher energy prices on wage growth in the euro-zone. And we think the conditions that gave rise to second-round effects in 2008 and 2022 –... 12th November 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 2026) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Japan is benefitting much less than most other Asian economies from soaring AI-related demand. But... 12th November 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Government embarks on large-scale fiscal expansion Two days before the budget, Governor Macklem dismissed a suggestion from a Conservative MP in Parliament that the government’s fiscal policy was adding to inflationary pressures and running counter to... 6th November 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Midterm results trigger concerns over AI rollout The Democrat sweep in this week's midterm elections has clearly alerted financial markets to the risk of a slowdown in data centre development and the AI buildout more broadly. While the underlying... 6th November 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (November 2026) The euro-zone economy slowed a little in Q3 and is likely to continue growing at a sluggish pace in Q4. The core economies are weaker than much of the “periphery” with France in a mild recession and... 6th November 2026 · 0 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Oct. 2026) The strong rise in payrolls and tick down in the unemployment rate in October will give the Fed further reassurance that the employment side of its mandate is being met, meaning developments in... 6th November 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Oct. 2026) The further contraction in employment in October and rise in the unemployment rate to a six-month high of 6.7% sit awkwardly with Macklem’s comments before MPs this week that the economy is “showing... 6th November 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What do the US midterms mean for Europe? The results of the US midterms this week will have been welcomed by European policymakers, not least because they reduce the risk of future tariff increases and could arguably lower policy uncertainty... 6th November 2026 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel's crunch coalition talks, CEE rate outlooks The first steps in Israel's coalition negotiations have put Gadi Eisenkot in pole position to lead the next government. While forming a coalition still looks difficult, on net this is probably... 6th November 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2026) While the economy has been remarkably resilient to higher interest rates and borrowing costs, the coming rise in CPI inflation is likely to dampen real GDP growth from 1.5% this year as a whole to 1.0... 4th November 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q3 26) We doubt that the prolonged weakness in New Zealand’s labour market will prevent the RBNZ from hiking rates further at its December meeting but it does mean that the Bank will ultimately tighten... 3rd November 2026 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Recent losing metros showing signs of turning the tables The fortunes of some of the best- and worst-performing metro labor markets of recent years are starting to turn. San Francisco is resurgent, Miami is faltering and D.C. is hemorrhaging office jobs... 3rd November 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update EZ labour market is cooling The euro-zone’s unemployment rate is close to a record low, but it has risen slightly and the latest surveys point to the labour market getting looser. This is a key reason why we think the risk of... 2nd November 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Tighter immigration settings a long-term downside risk There are some early signs that tighter immigration rules are starting to reduce net migration and there’s a risk that the government will curb migrant inflows further over the coming years. With... 2nd November 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Activity & Labour Market (Sep. 26), Tokyo CPI (Oct. 26) The end-month data rush shows that economic activity is holding up, the labour market remains very tight and inflation continues to strengthen. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our forecast that the... 30th October 2026 · 2 mins read
