US Economics Update

JOLTS data healthy amid DOGE purge

The JOLTS data again showed the labour market stabilising at a healthy level in March. While there were for the first time some signs of the DOGE purge of the federal workforce in the survey, the...

29th April 2025 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

EC Survey (April 2025)

The ESI for April point to a small hit to the euro-zone from US tariffs in April and suggest that growth remained quite weak. With the drag from tariffs set to intensify, we expect euro-zone GDP to...

29th April 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: PMI data suggest limited impact from tariff turmoil

Australia's Flash PMIs suggest that the initial impact of global trade tensions has been modest, with output remaining firmly in expansionary territory in April. What's more, with domestic demand...

25th April 2025 · 5 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (April 2025)

The latest data suggest that the world economy got off to a weak start in 2025 even before most tariffs were implemented. While tariff front-running provided a boost to global industrial activity and...

24th April 2025 · 1 min read

US Employment Report Preview

US Employment Report Preview: Still little sign of a DOGE-related drag

We forecast a healthy 150,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in April given that the drag from cuts to the federal workforce still appears minimal. Otherwise, we think the unemployment rate ticked back...

24th April 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

ANZ Chart Pack (Apr. 2025)

Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. At first glance, Australia and New Zealand should be fairly insulated from the brunt of the US’s...

24th April 2025 · 1 min read

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (Apr. 2025)

We are assuming that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs becomes permanent, keeping tariffs at 10% for most countries except China which will face a steeper 60% levy. If Congress quickly redirects...

23rd April 2025 · 1 min read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Flash PMIs (Apr. 2025)

The marked fall in the composite PMI in April raises the chances that the uncertainty stemming from the US tariffs chaos will be a bigger drag on the UK economy than we previously anticipated. That...

23rd April 2025 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (April 2025)

April’s euro-zone flash PMIs suggest that the immediate damage to production from US trade policy has been limited so far. But firms reported some front-loading of orders, so output might take a...

23rd April 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: RBA won’t cut nearly as far as the RBNZ

Markets remain optimistic that the RBA will cut its cash rate from 4.1% at present to below 3% by year-end. But with the labour market still tight and activity starting to rebound, we're sticking to...

17th April 2025 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Mar. 2025)

17th April 2025 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Labour Market (Feb. 2025)

While the jobs market weakened further, there were few signs this is feeding through to slower wage growth. But if the more uncertain backdrop from the recent US tariffs chaos soon becomes a bigger...

15th April 2025 · 3 mins read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Apr. 25)

Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Japan's economy will be hit less hard than many other large economies by the recent escalation of...

15th April 2025 · 1 min read

Canada Economics Update

Canada set for sustained period of weak growth

We have updated our forecasts for Canada to account for the latest changes in US trade policy. A recession should be avoided, but the harsh tariffs on the vehicle sector and uncertainty about the...

10th April 2025 · 3 mins read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Apr. 2025)

While Canada escaped “liberation day” relatively unscathed, the imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come will still weigh on exports, consumer confidence and investment. With immigration also...

9th April 2025 · 1 min read