Europe Economics Update Norges Bank strikes a more cautious tone With the Norwegian economic recovery beginning to look a little more fragile, the Norges Bank has begun to strike a more cautious tone. Although the Bank is likely to raise interest rates again later... 24th March 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rates hikes still not imminent (Mar 10) Market rate expectations have edged down in recent weeks, but we still think that the pace of tightening currently priced in for most countries in the region is too aggressive. While inflation has... 19th March 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How quickly will Brazil raise interest rates? Last night’s decision to keep Brazilian interest rates unchanged at 8.75% was in line with our forecast but against that of the consensus, which had expected a 50bps hike. Yet the debate over the... 18th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Mar.) & Labour Data (Jan./Feb.) The minutes of March’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting confirmed that the Committee is content to sit back for now and see how the effects of its past asset purchases pan out. But while it may... 17th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India will hike policy rates soon The surge in February wholesale prices, published today, means that it is a near-certainty that India will raise policy rates by at least 50bps at the next monetary policy review on 20th April. The... 15th March 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tightening cycle nears but rate hikes will be moderate Interest rate hikes in the region are drawing near. It’s a close call, but we expect the Central Bank of Brazil to stay on hold this month and begin raising interest rates in April instead. Peru and... 12th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How much has QE pushed up house prices? The main success of the Bank of England’s policy of quantitative easing (QE) has been the recent rise in asset prices. However, QE appears to have played only an indirect role in the housing market... 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How much has QE pushed up house prices? The main success of the Bank of England’s policy of quantitative easing (QE) has been the recent rise in asset prices. However, QE appears to have played only an indirect role in the housing market... 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines inching closer to a first policy rate hike The Philippine central bank (BSP) left its key policy rate unchanged at today’s meeting, as expected, but continued to unwind some of the other support measures which are no longer needed. Politics... 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Politics will stay in the way of Korea rate hikes The Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate at 2.00% today, as expected. BoK Governor Lee’s term ends this month and his replacement is likely to be sympathetic to the government view that monetary... 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand still on track for mid-year hike The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) as expected left its cash rate unchanged at 2.5% overnight and, crucially, retained its commitment to start lifting rates from around the middle of 2010. The... 11th March 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is there a limit to how much QE the MPC can do? Concerns that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is nearing the limit of how much quantitative easing (QE) it can undertake are probably overdone. Nonetheless, the potential for QE to spark an asset... 10th March 2010 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Token “easing” could now disappoint markets The Bank of Japan is now widely expected to announce some additional monetary stimulus at its next Policy Board meeting (which concludes on Wednesday 17th). However, we suspect this will simply be an... 10th March 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand moves closer to the exit The Thai policy rate was left unchanged at 1.25% today, as expected. The Bank of Thailand (BoT) acknowledged that the economic momentum built up at the end of last year has carried forward into 2010... 10th March 2010 · 1 min read
