Canada Economics Update Businesses shrugging off NAFTA uncertainty The improvement in business sentiment in the fourth quarter of last year, most notably the marked rebound in investment and hiring intentions, suggest that the increased uncertainty around NAFTA isn’t... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian tightening cycle to be larger than most expect The Romanian MPC’s hawkish post-meeting press statement, which followed the decision to hike the policy interest rate earlier today, supports our view that monetary policy will be tightened by more... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Dec.) With euro-zone headline inflation falling in December and core inflation still subdued, the ECB will continue to emphasise that interest rate hikes remain a long way off. 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation set to jump We expect consumer price inflation to surge over the coming months on the back of a spike in food price inflation. However, with core inflation probably close to a peak and producer price inflation... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly “Record” budget masks continued fiscal tightening While the budget for the coming fiscal year foresees record spending, expenditure will only rise marginally and revenues may climb even faster. The upshot is that the government is set to proceed with... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Financial stability concerns persist into 2018 Financial stability concerns were in the spotlight in Australia for much of 2017 and although actions by the RBA and APRA have gone some way to addressing these concerns, recent news that household... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Economy gathered a little momentum in Q4 The latest survey evidence suggests that the economy ended 2017 on a reasonable footing. Indeed, despite a fall-back in both the manufacturing and construction PMI surveys in December, the all-sector... 4th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Twenty-fourth time lucky for the Riksbank? After bringing its net asset purchases to a close last month, the Riksbank reiterated that it expects to raise interest rates in September this year. The Bank’s track record suggests that this... 4th January 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle to be larger than most expect Further sharp falls in Egyptian inflation in the coming months are likely to prompt the central bank to embark on a monetary easing cycle. We expect the benchmark interest rate to be cut to 13.25% by... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly A vintage year, but is the best yet to come? The euro-zone economy performed better in 2017 than we and most forecasters had anticipated at the year’s outset. Investment growth picked up despite intense political uncertainty. And while a rise in... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus A refresher on China’s monetary policy framework With the People’s Bank last week tweaking the interest rates on its open market operations, it seems timely to highlight some of the peculiarities of China’s monetary policy framework. One key one is... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Weak price pressures will prevent BoJ from tightening A rising number of analysts believe that the BoJ will start tightening policy by the end of next year. But with inflation set to remain below its 2% target, we think that the Bank will keep policy... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update MPC minutes express inflation and fiscal concerns The minutes of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) December policy meeting show that most MPC members are concerned about recent fiscal developments and the inflation outlook. Indeed, with consumer... 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier economies to strengthen in 2018 Frontier markets have enjoyed a recovery in 2017, with aggregate GDP growth set to reach close to 3%, up from a seven-year low of 2.3% in 2016. Frontiers in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa have... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank signals gradual shift towards tighter policy The Riksbank’s announcement that it will end its net asset purchases this month is the beginning of a shift towards tighter monetary policy in Sweden. We think that it will ultimately raise interest... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai rates to stay on hold through 2018 With growth robust and inflationary pressures subdued, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) unsurprisingly kept its policy rate on hold today at 1.50%. The accompanying monetary policy statement reaffirms our... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
