Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia’s productivity problem persists The latest data suggest that Australia’s productivity will continue to languish in the near term. The resulting surge in unit labour cost growth will keep services inflation stubbornly high... 19th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico to keep rates high for longer than most expect Mexico’s central bank held its policy rate at 11.25% at today’s Board meeting, bringing the tightening cycle to an end. But with inflation unlikely to return to target until late-2024, policy will... 18th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update How much will ECB tightening affect GDP? Our best guess is that the impact of monetary policy tightening on euro-zone economic activity will be less than five percent of GDP, which is the lower end of a range estimated in an ECB Economic... 18th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s electricity crisis threatening stagflation A quick solution to South Africa’s energy crisis is nowhere to be seen. Not only will power cuts remain a drag on economy but there are growing concerns that they are fuelling inflation, threatening... 18th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update QT effects dwarfed by influence of past rate hikes Any impact of QT has so far been modest and swamped by the effects of higher policy rates. Asset disposals might put some upward pressure on yields in the euro-zone in the near term, but the process... 18th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: an end to the tightening cycle The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today left interest rates unchanged (at 6.25%) but stated it was ready to resume its tightening cycle later in the year. However, with inflation falling back... 18th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt sovereign default worries mount Fears among investors have continued to grow that Egypt’s government will default on its debt in the coming years although, for now at least, there remains a path to avoid such an outcome. Taking that... 18th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update Growing case for another Bank of Canada rate hike The rapid turnaround in the housing market and the upside surprise to CPI inflation in April have raised the case for another interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada, which we now judge is slightly... 17th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update When will interest rates start to fall? Inflation is now on a downward trend and interest rates are at, or very close to, a peak. But central banks will only cut interest rates once there are clearer signs that underlying price pressures... 17th May 2023 · 4 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will hike to 5.75% in July The latest data don’t tell a compelling story as far as the outlook for inflation and the economy are concerned. Although inflation expectations are falling, measures of underlying inflation are still... 17th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Rate cuts will prompt pause in quantitative tightening The RBA’s balance sheet has barely shrunk since it decided to stop reinvesting the proceeds from maturing bonds. While pressing ahead with quantitative tightening would make it easier for the Bank to... 16th May 2023 · 4 mins read
US Economics Focus A closer look at the Fed’s favourite inflation gauge The resilience of PCE core services ex-housing inflation is only partly due to the strength of labour market conditions, and other factors are likely to play an important role in driving it lower over... 15th May 2023 · 15 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Housing downturn not over yet Australia’s house prices have rebounded over the last couple of months and most leading indicators suggest that the recovery has legs. However, we doubt that a sustained recovery is on the cards... 15th May 2023 · 11 mins read
