Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s imbalanced recovery can’t be sustained Colombia’s very strong post-pandemic recovery has come at the expense of a build-up of large macroeconomic imbalances and a period of below-trend growth is needed to reduce these vulnerabilities. The... 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Hawkish BoK, but early cuts still possible The Bank of Korea today left interest rates unchanged (3.5%) for a third consecutive meeting, and pushed back against the possibility of early interest rate cuts. However, with inflation falling back... 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore set to struggle in 2023 Singapore’s economy is being hit hard by multi-decade high interest rates and elevated inflation. And with external demand set to weaken, we expect growth to be much weaker than consensus projections. 25th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf growth slowing The flash Q1 GDP figures for Saudi Arabia showed the economy grew at its weakest pace in two years at the start of 2023, reflecting the cut in oil production in line with the OPEC+ decision in October... 24th May 2023 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Update When will the ECB cut rates? History suggests that in the absence of a major financial shock, European central banks usually leave interest rates at their peak for a year or more. That’s consistent with our view that the ECB is... 24th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Monetary policy divergence and what it could mean for markets Coming monetary policy divergence may have implications for sovereign bond markets, but we doubt it will be the key driver of FX markets where we think the threat of a recession looms. 24th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN tightens further as inflation threats mount The Central Bank of Nigeria’s decision to raise its policy rate by 50bp, to 18.50%, reaffirmed that officials continue to focus on tackling high and rising inflation at the expense of supporting the... 24th May 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Higher interest rates for longer make a recession more likely The most troubling aspect of April’s inflation data, released earlier today, was evidence that price pressures are becoming increasingly domestically generated. Accordingly, we now expect the Bank of... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Slowing growth, falling inflation and dovish central banks A strong rebound in tourism provided a big boost to growth in Thailand and Hong Kong last quarter, which along with China, were the three best-performing countries in Emerging Asia in Q1. But for the... 24th May 2023 · 15 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate dropped back to 6.8% y/y in April but the further strengthening of core inflation will alarm Reserve Bank officials about the impact of loadshedding on price... 24th May 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr. 2023) The Bank of England won’t be able to ignore the smaller-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in April and the rebound in core inflation to a new 31-year high. We now think it will raise interest rates... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ signals tightening cycle is at an end The decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lift its official cash rate by 25bp, to 5.50%, was in line with what most had anticipated. However, with the Bank sounding more dovish than it has in... 24th May 2023 · 3 mins read
