Asia Economics Update Malaysia: Rates on hold, further tightening unlikely Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) left its policy rate unchanged today (at 2.75%) and with the economy likely to remain weak and inflation set to fall back further over the coming months, we expect rates... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Policy unchanged, but Bank prepared to resume hikes The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.5% today as expected but, with one eye on the strength of the recent US data and the Fed’s hawkish reaction to that, it sounded less confident... 8th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: rates on hold, but scope for cuts this year The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its main policy rate on hold as expected today, at 6.75%, and we don’t think policymakers will rule out further rate hikes just yet (today’s statement gave... 8th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Q4 collapse in domestic demand a bad omen Recent evidence about the health of the euro-zone economy has been mixed. National figures released so far suggest industrial production rebounded in January but retail sales remained very weak. And... 8th March 2023 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: strong wage growth to curb fall in inflation Headline inflation in Mexico will continue to fall back over next couple of years, but strong wage growth means that it won’t return to Banxico’s 2-4% tolerance band until late-2024. Against that... 8th March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Powell testimony confirms higher peak in rates Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed today that interest rates are set to rise higher than we previously anticipated. But with most evidence still pointing to economic weakness and markedly lower... 7th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Most of the monetary hit is yet to be felt We think that most – perhaps two thirds – of the drag on activity from tighter monetary policy in advanced economies is still to come through in 2023. So, despite some surprisingly resilient data... 7th March 2023 · 26 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s economic roadmap for 2023 The economic plans that have been detailed at the National People’s Congress are more cautious and restrained than had seemed likely given the pro-growth messaging ahead of the event. That suggests... 6th March 2023 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Czech koruna strength, gloomy GDP breakdowns The recent strength of the Czech koruna, which hit a 14-year high this week, adds to a number of disinflationary forces that are currently taking hold in the country. And despite hawkish noises from... 3rd March 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Full effects of higher rates yet to be felt The latest data give the Bank of Canada plenty to think about ahead of its policy announcement next week. The data appear to lend support to the Bank’s view that a soft landing is still achievable... 3rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell and payrolls to clarify rate outlook The February employment report and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress next week should give a clearer indication of whether recent talk of interest rates going “higher for longer” is... 3rd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Two points on “higher for longer” and asset markets With much of the global economy holding up surprisingly well and inflation not coming down as quickly as expected, investors are weighing up the risk that policy rates remain elevated for much longer... 3rd March 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly QT launched, France flatlining? The latest data suggest that France’s economy is performing a little better than Germany’s and may even avoid recession, at least in the first half of this year. Meanwhile, we expect to learn next... 3rd March 2023 · 8 mins read
