Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Government leaves RBA to go it alone Contrary to the claims made by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, measures in the 2024/25 Budget will do little to alleviate price pressures. That means the onus of bringing inflation under control will fall... 17th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi gigaproject dilemma, Ras el-Hekma boost, Tunisia Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan this week add to the evidence that spending on gigaprojects may be curtailed. But his comments pinning this on concerns about... 16th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Financial conditions loosening, but still restrictive Financial conditions have loosened somewhat in advanced economies this year, suggesting that the peak drag from monetary tightening is behind us. However, outside Japan, they remain tight by past... 16th May 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update India’s geopolitical balancing act India is benefitting economically from maintaining its historical non-aligned stance in response to tensions between the West and Russia, and Iran to a lesser extent. But notwithstanding a potential... 16th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data suggest that activity in Europe picked up at the start of this year, and... 15th May 2024 · 0 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Chalmers’ fight against inflation goes nowhere Treasurer Jim Chalmers has sought to present the 2024/25 Budget as one that strikes a balance between providing support to an ailing economy and keeping pressure off inflation. In our view, that’s... 15th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Europe is leading the cutting cycle, but will it last? Contrary to the earlier assumption that the US Federal Reserve would lead the monetary policy loosening cycle among advanced economies, it is Switzerland and Sweden that have cut first. This has... 14th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Copom minutes (May 2024) The minutes to last week’s Brazilian central bank meeting suggest that the balance on Copom is, overall, more cautious than had been widely assumed immediately after the meeting. That may provide some... 14th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ to cut rates more aggressively than most expect We expect the RBNZ to leave policy settings unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the domestic economic backdrop is clearly weak, lingering risks around inflation persistence means policy... 14th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily JGB yields may keep going it alone, helping the yen While we expect government bond yields in most developed markets to fall back, we think that those in Japan will stabilise around their current levels. In turn, we anticipate that interest rate... 13th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (May) Romania’s central bank (NBR) left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% today, in contrast to consensus expectations for a cut but in line with our own forecast. With inflation pressures falling more... 13th May 2024 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024) Headline consumer price inflation edged down in April to an 11-month low and, looking ahead, we think it will reach the RBI’s 4% long-term target by the middle of the year. We remain comfortable with... 13th May 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) Broad credit growth slowed sharply to its weakest pace on record last month. This threatens to derail the ongoing economic recovery and is likely to trigger additional policy easing. Increased fiscal... 13th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA elections and inflation target, Angola debt Electioneering in South Africa heated up this week as parties openly warned of the different scenarios that could emerge after this month’s polls. The scenario that is most worrying remains a left... 10th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank to wait a little longer before cutting interest rates The strength of the April labour market data means we now expect the Bank of Canada to begin its loosening cycle in July, rather than June. Nonetheless, the sharp growth in labour supply and... 10th May 2024 · 4 mins read
