UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Defence spending, tariffs and interest rate cuts Germany’s ability to announce a larger increase in defence spending and fund it by additional borrowing rather than spending cuts elsewhere shines yet another light on the UK’s tight fiscal position... 7th March 2025 · 8 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb. 2025) The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 3.8% y/y in February was entirely driven by non-core inflation and therefore won’t be a major concern for the central bank. Indeed, we think that the... 7th March 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Tariffs, trade talks and Tesla President Trump had some stern words on India's tariff policy this week. But the Trump administration’s stance on India seems different from its approach to other countries: it seems focused on... 7th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Shunto bonanza points to more rate hikes Japan’s trade unions are requesting an even larger pay hike in this year’s spring wage negotiations than they did a year ago and we expect employers to comply. With inflation already on track to... 7th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Australian consumer in a soft patch, RBNZ’s Orr exits Australian national accounts data showed that private consumption growth edged up only modestly in Q4. What's more, timely data suggest that it could actually soften again this quarter. However... 7th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch BoC to cut again as economy stares into tariff abyss The recent upside surprises to GDP, employment and inflation are of little relevance given the toll that US tariffs could have on the economy. Even if those tariffs are soon rolled back, investment... 6th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB not done cutting yet Alongside today’s decision to cut the deposit rate from 2.75% to 2.50%, the ECB adjusted its messaging to signal that the outlook for monetary policy has become less clear. We still think that the... 6th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (March 2025) The ECB’s decision to cut its deposit rate from 2.75% to 2.50% today came alongside new language which shows that policymakers are becoming less certain about the future path of interest rates. Looser... 6th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The communications accompanying the decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to cut its policy rate by 250bp again today, to 42.50%, suggest that policymakers were reassured by the fall in... 6th March 2025 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus China's economic roadmap for 2025 The GDP target announced for 2025 suggests that policymakers are hoping to achieve steady growth this year, but we don’t think that the policy agenda set out today at the National People’s Congress... 5th March 2025 · 28 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) While the 0.1% q/q rise in GDP in Q4 of last year was stronger than we and most other forecasters expected, the combination of higher taxes for businesses announced in last October’s Budget, a... 5th March 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Germany loosens the purse strings The agreement on a reform of the national fiscal rule reached by Germany’s likely next coalition partners suggests they will implement a significant fiscal stimulus of perhaps around 1% to 2% of GDP... 5th March 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response Initial thoughts on China’s NPC Chinese policymakers have stuck with an ambitious target for real GDP growth but have become more cautious on the outlook for nominal growth and inflation. And while they did deliver some increase in... 5th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Trump’s tariffs and the implications for Mexico The 25% tariff on all US imports from Mexico that came into force today will, if it stays in place, knock Mexico’s economy into recession in the coming quarters. A contraction in GDP this year of 1%... 4th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Tariffs risk plunging Canada into recession If the US tariffs remain in place, Canada will undoubtedly fall into recession. The limited decline in the loonie so far suggests markets are still pricing in a quick U-turn from the Trump... 4th March 2025 · 5 mins read
