Global Economics Update Answering your questions about Liberation Day tariffs We hosted two online Drop-In sessions on 3rd April to discuss the fallout from President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. (See a recording here.) This Update contains answers to some of the... 3rd April 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update The impact of 20% US tariffs on the euro-zone If the 20% US tariff on the EU is sustained it is likely to reduce economic activity in the euro-zone by more than the 0.1-0.2% of GDP we had previously assumed. The impact on inflation should be... 3rd April 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar. 2025) The softer-than-expected Turkish inflation figure for March, of 38.1% y/y, suggests that the sell-off in the lira last month hasn’t exerted significant upwards pressure on consumer prices (yet). And... 3rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (March) Switzerland’s inflation rate was unchanged in March, but that news has been overshadowed by the much higher-than-expected tariffs announced by the US on Swiss goods yesterday which weaken the outlook... 3rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Defence and growth in Germany: a closer look We think Germany is likely to raise defence spending by around 1.5% of GDP between 2024 and 2027. With the government unlikely to cut other spending much and the defence industry well placed to raise... 2nd April 2025 · 18 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will cut rates to 2.5% by mid-2026 We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut its Official Cash Rate by 25bp, to 3.5%, at its next meeting on 9th April. Although activity is now on the mend, spare capacity will ease only... 2nd April 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs imply price pressures easing outside of the US The latest PMIs suggest that global industry is heading into Q2 on a weaker footing. Meanwhile, price pressures accelerated sharply in the US but generally eased elsewhere. 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch RBI Watch: Tariffs would reinforce case for further easing The recent sharp drop in headline CPI inflation means that the Reserve Bank is primed to cut the repo rate again at the conclusion of the MPC meeting on Wednesday 9th April. And barring a debilitating... 1st April 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (March 2025) March’s big decline in euro-zone services inflation strengthens the case for the ECB to cut interest rates at the meeting on 17 th April. 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) The rise in the manufacturing PMIs in Central Europe in March adds to evidence that the region is recovering from its recent soft patch. In contrast, the drop in Russia’s PMI suggests the economy may... 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economies of Central and Eastern Europe appear to have ended Q1 on a positive note... 31st March 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Flash HICP (March) National inflation figures released so far suggest that euro-zone headline inflation edged down in March. Services inflation probably also fell, which will please ECB officials. 31st March 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook UK Outlook: Headwinds strengthen and tailwinds lighten We’ve become more concerned about the outlook for the economy due to the drags from higher businesses taxes and the more uncertain global backdrop being bigger than we thought and the boost from... 31st March 2025 · 17 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are amongst the least affected EMs by the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. And growth in the region is set for a modest pick-up on the back of lower... 31st March 2025 · 0 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump shifts tariffs up a gear The Trump administration’s 25% tariffs on most motor vehicle and some parts imports is an upside risk to our inflation forecasts. There have been some hints from the administration that the levies... 28th March 2025 · 8 mins read
