Global Inflation Watch Could tariffs yet reignite global inflation? Tariffs have had a limited impact on inflation so far, but we still expect the impact to gradually build. In the US, combined with the crackdown on immigration, tariffs should keep core inflation... 13th August 2025 · 19 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Jul. 2025) There was another narrative shift for the Fed in the July CPI data, with tariff effects once again barely perceptible but a stronger gain in services prices pointing to another above-target gain in... 12th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (July 2025) The fall in Brazilian inflation, to 5.2% y/y in July, won’t change the outcome of the central bank’s next meeting in September, where interest rates will be left unchanged. But it lends support to our... 12th August 2025 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Jul. 2025) The larger-than-expected fall in India’s headline inflation rate in July, to an eight-year low, raises the prospect of the RBI cutting interest rates further this year. But with inflation set to... 12th August 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China’s deflation problem isn’t going away Hopes that recent data show China starting to emerge from deflation are likely to be disappointed. The recovery in core goods inflation last month mostly reflects the impact of government subsidies... 11th August 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Exports resilient despite trade war The trade deficit narrowed to $60.2bn in June, from $71.5bn. This was the smallest deficit in almost two years, with a normalisation in pharmaceutical goods imports causing total imports to decline by... 8th August 2025 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: India caught in the US-Russia crossfire The extra 25% US tariff on India for its continued economic ties with Russia, on top of the 25% tariff that took effect this week, would significantly dent India’s appeal as an alternative to China... 8th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Productivity growth picking up in New Zealand While the Q2 labour force survey out of New Zealand showed that labour demand remains dismal, it's worth noting that firms have been squeezing more out of their existing employees. The resultant lift... 8th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) lowered its policy rate by a smaller 25bp, to 7.75%, as expected at today’s meeting and the accompanying communications suggest that cuts are likely to continue in... 7th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank easing cycle will be slow and short Next week, we expect Norges Bank to leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.25% but reiterate that it is likely to loosen policy later this year. We forecast two 25bp cuts by year-end. 7th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Saudi’s austere turn, CBE Monetary Policy Report takeaways Q2 budget figures show that Saudi Arabia's deficit is on track to be larger than the full-year projections set out in the Budget. Officials are turning to fiscal consolidation (via cuts to capital... 7th August 2025 · 8 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul. 2025) The drop in Mexican inflation to 3.5% y/y in July paves the way for Banxico to deliver the clearly-signalled 25bp cut, to 7.75%, at its meeting later today. 7th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Economic growth has been fairly resilient to tariffs so far and, as long as tariffs stay around the 15% agreed in the EU-US trade deal, the hit to activity should be small. But growth will be sluggish... 7th August 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (July) The increase in Sweden’s CPIF inflation rate to its highest level since the start of 2024 is likely to encourage the Riksbank’s officials to keep the policy rate on hold at their meeting later this... 7th August 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Côte d’Ivoire: bright prospects, stormy politics Côte d’Ivoire’s economic fortunes appear good, and we expect growth to accelerate, underpinned by strong cocoa, oil and gold exports. However, the country’s sizeable sovereign debt servicing costs and... 6th August 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Despite the unexpected rise in CPI inflation in June, we still think the weakness in the labour market means it’s only a matter of time before wage growth and inflation slow to rates consistent with... 6th August 2025 · 1 min read
