Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May 2025) The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate in the first half of May, to 4.2% y/y, was driven in large part by non-core components and is unlikely to sway Banxico’s thinking... 22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (May 2025) Despite the modest rebound in the composite activity PMI in May, at face value it is consistent with the bumper 0.7% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 being followed by a 0.2% q/q fall in Q2. But signs of some... 22nd May 2025 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (May 25) The ongoing weakness in activity, coupled with softer price pressures, will keep the Bank of Japan in wait and watch mode in the near term. 22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Flash PMIs (May 2025) The step-down in business activity this month, combined with signs of easing price pressures, supports our view that the RBA’s easing cycle has further to run. 22nd May 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (May 2025) The near-term outlook for Canada is a little bleak. After a solid first quarter, we expect GDP growth to be muted as the imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come weighs on exports, consumer... 21st May 2025 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Should core inflation be a worry for the RBI? Core inflation in India rose to an 18-month high in April, but there are reasons to think that this overstates the extent to which the economy is running into capacity constraints. And with headline... 21st May 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.) The rise in South Africa’s headline inflation to 2.8% y/y still left it below the lower bound of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range and, ordinarily, would make us more confident that the easing... 21st May 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Apr. 2025) The bigger-than-expected jump in CPI inflation in April suggests that the persistence of inflation is a bit stronger and/or businesses are passing on more of the recent rises in taxes than we thought... 21st May 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ Watch: RBNZ will hand down another dovish 25bp cut The RBNZ is all but certain to cut its cash rate by 25bp, to 3.25%, at its meeting ending on 28th May. With the recovery showing signs of faltering, the labour market remaining weak, and underlying... 21st May 2025 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (May. 2025) We assume that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs will become permanent, keeping tariffs at 10% for most countries except China, which will face a steeper 40% levy. A recession should be avoided... 20th May 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Apr. 2025) The removal of the carbon tax sent energy prices tumbling in April, pushing headline inflation below the 2% target. More concerningly, the Bank’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures rose... 20th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates to 3.35% by year-end When the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates by 25bp at its meeting today, it signalled greater confidence that it had brought inflation under control, while sounding increasingly concerned that... 20th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Update EU faces “difficult second album” syndrome with ETS2 By seeking to extend the “polluter pays” principle to building owners and road users, the ‘sequel’ to the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme was always likely to run into public and political opposition... 19th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update A deep dive into April's euro-zone inflation data April’s surprisingly large jump in services inflation appears to have been entirely an Easter timing effect that will reverse in May. Meanwhile, there are some near-term upside risks to headline... 19th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia GDP (Q1 2025) & Consumer Prices (Apr.) The sharp slowdown in Russian GDP growth from 4.5% y/y in Q4 to 1.4% in Q1 is consistent with a sharp fall in output and suggests that the economy may be heading for a much harder landing than we had... 16th May 2025 · 2 mins read
