Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr. 2026)

The small fall in Mexican inflation, to 4.5% y/y, in the first half of April was driven by easing underlying price pressures and will be welcomed by the central bank. That’s increased the likelihood...

23rd April 2026 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

Fertiliser price surge to hit low-income EMs most acutely

The main impact of the rise in fertiliser prices on the global economy will come via higher food inflation. But this will take time to materialise and will be much smaller than the increase in...

23rd April 2026 · 6 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Flash PMIs (Apr. 2026)

April’s flash PMIs suggest that so far the economy is holding up better against the headwinds from the Iran war than in our baseline scenario, but that inflation will rise further. This may well lead...

23rd April 2026 · 3 mins read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Apr. 2026)

The economic fallout from events in the Middle East is developing broadly in line with our baseline scenario, leaving WTI on track to average $80/barrel in the second half of the year. The reduced...

22nd April 2026 · 1 min read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar. 2026)

South Africa’s Reserve Bank will welcome last month’s soft inflation outturn of 3.1% y/y but adjustments to administered fuel prices will cause inflation to jump in April. Even so, the headline rate...

22nd April 2026 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Consumer Prices (Mar. 2026)

The rise in CPI inflation from 3.0% in February to 3.3% in March (consensus and CE forecast 3.3%) was almost entirely due to higher fuel prices and tells us little about whether the leap in energy...

22nd April 2026 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Apr. '26)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Iran war will result in sharp falls in GDP in the Gulf. The closure of the...

21st April 2026 · 1 min read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (April 2026)

The energy shock will knock around 0.5%-pts off India’s GDP growth this year and push headline inflation to a peak of close to 6%. But we think the RBI will refrain from raising interest rates unless...

21st April 2026 · 0 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (April 2026)

Our Emerging Europe Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The energy shock presents a headwind to most of Emerging Europe by worsening...

21st April 2026 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 2026)

While headline inflation remains well above the midpoint of the RBNZ’s target, the continued softening of underlying inflation means that the Bank won’t be in a rush to tighten policy.

21st April 2026 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Bank’s surveys show war putting nascent recovery at risk

The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys show that easing concern among firms and households regarding trade tensions have been swiftly replaced by fresh anxieties about falling activity and...

20th April 2026 · 4 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Consumer Prices (Mar 2026)

The broadly target-consistent gain in an average of the Bank of Canada’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures in March will persuade policymakers to look through the jump in the all-items...

20th April 2026 · 3 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

SA hawkishness, new DA leader, Kenya macro strains

The warnings from SARB Governor Kganyago about a potential policy misstep amidst rising inflation suggest that it's more hawkish than we previously though. But today’s renewed optimism on the US-Iran...

17th April 2026 · 6 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Majority rules

Prime Minister Mark Carney was swift to put his newfound majority to use this week, announcing a suspension of the federal gasoline tax for the next few months. That will not have a huge impact, but...

17th April 2026 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

EZ energy import bill rising, military production booming

This week, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen highlighted the jump in the EU's energy import bill since the conflict in the Middle East began, but in our baseline forecast the increase...

17th April 2026 · 6 mins read