ECB Watch ECB Watch: Keep calm and carry on cutting Despite President Trump’s latest decision to pause the additional tariffs for 90 days, his farcical on-and-off tariff announcements will still have a big impact on the world economy. We are not... 10th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Trade war will be disinflationary for the euro-zone Despite the 90-day pause to the US’s “reciprocal” tariff regime, ECB policymakers will still need to assess the impact of higher US tariffs for euro-zone inflation. Some have argued that tariffs could... 10th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar. 2025) Egypt’s headline inflation rate increased to 13.6% y/y in March, but we still expect policymakers at the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to deliver the first interest rate cut in nearly five years at the... 10th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) While Canada escaped “liberation day” relatively unscathed, the imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come will still weigh on exports, consumer confidence and investment. With immigration also... 9th April 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Higher US tariffs will be a substantial drag on the euro-zone economy this year. Looser fiscal policy in Germany will give a small boost in 2026, but overall we expect the euro-zone to grow fairly... 9th April 2025 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI’s easing cycle will run further than most expect The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) decision to cut the repo rate by another 25bps today to 6.00% comes as no surprise given the recent sharp drop in inflation and the headwinds from US tariffs. But... 9th April 2025 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar. 2025) Deflationary pressures persisted last month and will almost certainly deepen over the coming quarters as it becomes more difficult for Chinese firms to export their excess supply. 10th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (April 2025) Higher US tariffs will be a substantial drag on the euro-zone economy this year. Looser fiscal policy in Germany will give a small boost in 2026, but overall we expect the euro-zone to grow fairly... 8th April 2025 · 0 mins read
Event Drop-In: European growth risks rise – How will the ECB respond? 1744900200 The ECB’s April meeting comes amid falling inflation – but also rising global risks, not least the potential growth shock from Trump’s aggressive tariffs.
Canada Economics Update BoC’s surveys hold up, but already out of date The Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys were nowhere near as bad as we feared, but that may only be because the survey periods preceded the most recent tariff announcements... 7th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: Australia’s election, RBA easing and the economic outlook 1745982000 Australia’s 3rd May general election will take place against a backdrop of further Reserve Bank easing and an economy showing signs of having turned a corner.
Global Economics Update Trump shock: What to expect next on tariffs Clinton adviser James Carville famously quipped that he would like to be reincarnated as the bond market but, as President Donald Trump is now finding out, the equity market can be pretty intimidating... 6th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Tariffs will put a big dent in the CEE recovery If the US tariffs on imports from the EU announced this week are kept in place, our current assessment is that this will lower GDP growth across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) by 0.3-0.4%-pts on... 4th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (March) Despite easing in March, CPIF inflation excluding energy remained elevated and is likely to remain high throughout this year. We are forecasting the Riksbank to keep its policy rate at 2.25% over that... 4th April 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Trump makes Canada okay again Canada has escaped much more lightly than we feared from President Trump’s big announcement, with the import-weighted US tariff likely to be 8% based on current plans and potentially below 5% in the... 3rd April 2025 · 3 mins read
