US Economics Focus What would $100 oil mean for the economy and Fed? The US’ position as a modest net energy exporter means a world of near $100 oil prices would not be particularly bad news for the economy. The impact on real GDP growth would still be modestly... 10th March 2026 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Update Scenarios for the Iran war & the macro impact This note assesses the macro and commodity‑market implications of three potential scenarios for the Iran war. In the most benign – a severe but short‑lived conflict – the effects on GDP, inflation and... 10th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack – Iran Conflict Edition (March 2026) The conflict in the Middle East has triggered a major shock to energy flows from the region, sending prices of oil and natural gas soaring. Shipments of petroleum through the Strait of Hormuz have... 10th March 2026 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: the challenges facing President Kast Investors will welcome Chile’s new right-wing President José Antonio Kast – who will be sworn into office on Wednesday – but we doubt that he’ll be able to reinvigorate the copper sector and carry out... 10th March 2026 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China well placed to weather energy price shock Events in the Middle East mean that China will have to stomach a higher import bill. But China’s economy is not especially dependent on oil and natural gas. And the country has large reserves that it... 10th March 2026 · 4 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will deliver back-to-back hikes in March and May We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates by 25bp at its meeting ending on 17th March. The conditions for a sustained acceleration in inflation were in place even before the Iran conflict... 10th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb. 2026) The further rise in Mexican inflation to 4.0% y/y in January, combined with the surge in oil prices, pretty much rule out the chance of a 25bp cut at Banxico’s next meeting on 26th March. 9th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Soaring oil prices may prompt RBNZ to hike this year The surge in energy prices will prompt the RBA to hike rates by another 25bp at its meeting next week and increases the chances that the RBNZ will start tightening policy before the end of the year. 9th March 2026 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb. 2026) CPI inflation recovered last month, thanks to temporary factors such as an easing of oil price deflation and volatility in food and tourism prices around Lunar New Year. Tensions in the Middle East... 9th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly How will the Middle East conflict affect Africa The jump in global energy prices on the back of the conflict in the Middle East, if sustained, will provide a windfall for Africa’s key oil producers, such as Nigeria and Angola. We suspect most of... 6th March 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Energy price shock and disappointing jobs report The surge in oil prices will be a negative for the economy, with domestic oil producers unlikely to raise production until it is clear that Middle East disruptions, and the resulting elevated prices... 6th March 2026 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher oil prices to boost inflation more than GDP The surge in oil prices will be positive for the economy, but pipeline capacity constraints mean that the boost to real GDP growth will be only modest. Nonetheless, together with the impact on... 6th March 2026 · 7 mins read
