China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Sep. 2026) Higher global energy prices continued to push up producer price inflation in September, but the impact was limited to a few narrow areas. Consumer price inflation also picked up, but core inflation... 14th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (October 2026) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. There are no signs that higher interest rates are resulting in tighter financial conditions or... 13th October 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBA Minutes (Sep. 2026) While the Board continued to strike a hawkish tone in September, we’re sticking to our view that the cash rate has already peaked. 13th October 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa services inflation not yet a major cause for alarm The rise in services inflation in South Africa has grabbed the attention of the Reserve Bank but we don’t think it is currently high or widespread enough to prompt further rate hikes. And, so long as... 12th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Weak loonie further complicates the Bank’s task This week's fall in Canada's nominal effective exchange rate to its lowest level since the 2016 oil price crash might, at the margin, make Governing Council more reluctant to lean too dovish at... 9th October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation risks keep more Fed hikes in play The latest data and Fedspeak suggest there is upside risk to our forecast that the Fed will hike interest rates twice more, by a total 50 bp, in the coming six months. 9th October 2026 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Parsing the RBI’s messaging, US Green Card curbs The RBI kicked off its tightening cycle this week with a 25bp hike to the repo rate (to 5.50%) and Governor Sanjay Malhotra's worries about a "generalisation of inflation" suggest to us that further... 9th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Glapinski holding out … but rate hikes coming soon Governor Glapinski’s post-meeting press conference this week shifted in a more hawkish direction and we now think that some modest tightening of monetary policy (50bp in total) will be delivered in... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Flávio in pole position The strong showing for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election has boosted Brazilian assets this week. Most of the good news now appears to be priced into the FX and... 9th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Sep. 2026) The rise in Brazilian inflation in September, to 4.6% y/y, was largely driven by the unwinding of the electricity discount in August and is unlikely to worry the central bank. We think an interest... 9th October 2026 · 2 mins read
China Scenarios China Economic Scenarios - Q4 2026 China Scenarios brings together Capital Economics’ best-in-class research and proprietary data on China with Fathom’s world-leading scenario modelling and proprietary data. It contains six thematic... 9th October 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Central Asia’s boom comes with commodity risks This week we participated in an Emerging Markets Forum in Monaco, with a special focus on Central Asia. The key takeaway is that the growth outlook in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan remains strong and... 9th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand’s recovery will remain gradual National income data released this week showed that New Zealand households are still saving at a high rate. However, with real income growth slowing and housing wealth continuing to fall, they are... 9th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Refined product prices pose upside inflation risk The surge in refined petroleum product prices has amplified the inflationary impact of this year’s energy shock, pushing fuel inflation above levels implied by crude oil prices alone. While we expect... 8th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru to hike, but tightening cycle to be relatively short Despite near-term headwinds from El Niño and tight fiscal policy, Peru’s economy is set to record robust growth of 2.8-3.0% in the next few years and outperform most other Latin American economies... 8th October 2026 · 3 mins read
