US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (Aug. 2025)

We now expect growth to average 2.0% annualised in the second half of the year, before slowing slightly in 2026. The recent slowdown in employment growth and limited pass-through of tariffs to...

19th August 2025 · 1 min read

UK Economics Update

Why is inflation higher in the UK than in the euro-zone?

The recent strength of inflation in the UK relative to that in the euro-zone appears to be mainly due to rises in “regulated” (i.e. government-set) prices, tax rises, and rents. These upward pressures...

19th August 2025 · 4 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Consumer Prices (Jul. 2025)

July’s softer core price data, combined with favourable downward revisions to previous months’ figures, leave the three-month annualised average rate of CPI-trim and CPI-median at a more modest 2.4%...

19th August 2025 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Chile GDP (Q2 2025)

The Chilean economy isn’t as weak as the slowdown in GDP growth to 0.4% q/q would suggest; there was a large drag from net trade while domestic demand remained very strong. This, alongside the...

18th August 2025 · 2 mins read

Africa Economics Update

SSA inflation trending down and rates will follow

Many central banks across Sub-Saharan Africa have cut interest rates over the past year or so and Nigeria will soon join the rate-cutting club. With inflation low or falling in most countries, we...

18th August 2025 · 4 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Canada Weekly: Bank still wrestling with inflation concerns

The Bank of Canada could still cut rates in September, depending on the outcome of next week's July price data and the quarterly GDP data released later this month. But the cautious tone on inflation...

15th August 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Latin America Weekly: Shift in rate expectations in Brazil, Chile set for slowdown

The latest data out of Brazil point to a slowdown in GDP growth in Q2, which, alongside softening inflation, has led to a shift in the debate towards interest rate cuts, perhaps by year-end. This...

15th August 2025 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: South Africa unemployment, Kenya’s fiscal challenges

The rise in South Africa’s unemployment rate in Q2 reinforces our view that inflation will stay subdued, further interest rate cuts are coming and local currency bond yields will continue to decline...

15th August 2025 · 6 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

ANZ Weekly: Strong jobs market won’t keep RBA from easing further

When the RBA delivered a 25bp cut this week, it signalled a willingness to lower rates below 3% for the first time this cycle. Although subsequently released labour market and wage data surprised...

15th August 2025 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

CEE inflation to stay strong, despite wage slowdown

The recent slowdown in wage growth across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is a welcome development for central banks, but we don’t think it will ease much further, limiting how quickly services...

14th August 2025 · 4 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2025)

Our View: The Q2 GDP figures out so far point to robust growth across much of the emerging world, but we think growth will soften over the second half of the year. While growth across much of Asia...

14th August 2025 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

MENA Weekly: Egypt’s central bank governor race & rate cuts, Dubai’s boom

The term of the incumbent Central Bank of Egypt governor, Hassan Abdalla, is due to expire next week and, while it is not yet clear if Mr. Abdalla will be kept on or a successor appointed, it will be...

14th August 2025 · 6 mins read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Aug. 2025)

The economy has mostly held up against US tariffs so far, thanks largely to resilient consumer spending. But exports have weakened, and investment is showing signs of slowing. With the upcoming USMCA...

14th August 2025 · 1 min read

US Rapid Response

US Producer Prices (July 2025)

Most of the large upside surprise to core PPI in July was due to a head-scratching increase in margins for wholesalers and retailers. While the data still imply that the core PCE deflator rose by...

14th August 2025 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jul. 2025)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed from 2.3% y/y in June to 2.1% y/y in July, its weakest pace since February. As we flagged in a recent Focus, we think that inflation will continue to...

14th August 2025 · 2 mins read