Global Economics Update

Rise in DM services inflation not the start of a trend

The recent rise in services inflation in advanced economies has been driven by temporary and economy-specific factors, rather than a general trend. The unwinding of these factors, together with weaker...

26th August 2025 · 4 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Aug. 2025)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Activity in many parts of the region, and Brazil in particular, slowed in Q2...

26th August 2025 · 1 min read

Japan Economics Update

Ueda overstating structural change in labour market

The Bank of Japan is overplaying the importance of structural changes in Japan’s labour market in explaining the post-pandemic pick-up in cost pressures. Even so, we still expect inflation to be...

26th August 2025 · 5 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Canada Weekly: Softer price data keeps two rate cuts on the table

The inflation outlook has improved notably in recent days, with core price pressures modest in July and businesses' selling price expectations holding steady this month. While it is still not certain...

22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Aug. ’25)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Oil prices have fallen back in the wake of the Israel-Iran ceasefire and, with...

22nd August 2025 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Weekly

Europe Weekly: Question marks over recovery, small progress on trade

Economic data released this week cast some doubt on our forecast that euro-zone GDP growth will accelerate in the latter part of this year. Meanwhile, the EU-US joint statement on trade, also released...

22nd August 2025 · 7 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Africa Weekly: Kenya’s finance scramble, South Africa CPI and rates

Kenya’s efforts to deal with its fiscal problems may alleviate short-term pressures, but we remain concerned that the path to avoiding sovereign default in the medium term remains narrow. Elsewhere...

22nd August 2025 · 5 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Japan Weekly: External headwinds still not doing much damage

There are mounting signs that higher US tariffs are starting to weigh on exports. However, with business investment holding up and inflation still strong, the financial markets are coming around to...

22nd August 2025 · 4 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Consumer Prices (July 2025)

Although inflation is likely to cool a bit further in the months ahead, it shouldn’t prevent the Bank of Japan from resuming its tightening cycle in October.

22nd August 2025 · 2 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (August 2025)

India is not anywhere near as dependent on final US demand as many other EMs are but a total tariff of 50% would be large enough to have a material impact on GDP growth. If it sticks, the resulting...

21st August 2025 · 1 min read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Aug. 2025)

The rises in August’s composite activity PMI and services output prices balances marginally increase the chances that the Bank of England will leave interest rates on hold at 4.00% in November.

21st August 2025 · 3 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Flash PMIs (Aug. 25)

While the strength in the composite PMI in August confirms that Japan’s economy is proving resilient to global trade tensions, there are early signs that external demand is weakening in earnest.

21st August 2025 · 2 mins read

US Economics Update

Why is the US tariff rate not higher?

The actual tariff rate on US goods imports was only 9% in June, far below most estimates at the time of about 15%. This reflects a shift in the composition of imports towards countries and goods with...

20th August 2025 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Euro-zone core inflation to fall to 2% by December

July’s increase in core goods inflation in the euro-zone looks like a one-off, whereas services inflation is likely to keep falling. We forecast core inflation to fall from 2.3% in July to 2.0% by...

20th August 2025 · 2 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.)

The jump in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 3.5% y/y masked continued weakness in core inflation, which leaves the door open for the Reserve Bank’s easing cycle to continue. We remain...

20th August 2025 · 2 mins read