Japan Economics Weekly Japan economy now in fourth place, but not for long With the yen reaching a 14-year low against the euro, we estimate that Germany's GDP has overtaken Japan's in US$-terms. However, as the yen is now more severely undervalued relative to fundamentals... 21st October 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economic Outlook Economy will continue to struggle We expect greater stimulus next year. But with the zero-COVID policy here to stay, an abrupt turnaround in property construction unlikely and exports set to fall, policymakers face an uphill battle... 21st October 2022 · 23 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Sep. 2022) Headline inflation remained at a three-decade high in September and will climb slightly higher by early 2023. That said, the Bank of Japan will remain steadfast in maintaining its ultra-easy monetary... 21st October 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update “Lira-isation” policies are no cure for Turkey’s problems Policymakers in Turkey have doubled down on their new economic model of “lira-isation” by pursuing more extreme de-dollarisation policies in recent months. These appear to be having an impact in terms... 20th October 2022 · 8 mins read
ECB Watch Strong case for 100bp rate hike The ECB is certain to opt for another bumper rate hike next week and, on balance, we think that policymakers are most likely to go for 100bp. A hike of that size will probably be a one-off as they... 20th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Deeper recession and more persistent inflation The euro-zone is on the cusp of a significant recession due to a severe squeeze on households’ real incomes, rising interest rates and weak external demand. We now think GDP will fall for the next... 20th October 2022 · 30 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to opt for another 75 bp hike Governor Tiff Macklem has told us that the Bank of Canada needs to see firm evidence of improvements in core inflation and near-term inflation expectations before it slows the pace of its tightening... 19th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Rates to stay high for a long while yet EM tightening cycles have continued apace but, having started raising rates much earlier than their DM (and Asian) peers, some central banks in Latin America (Brazil, Chile) and Emerging Europe (Czech... 19th October 2022 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Inflation and interest rates peaking Latin America is running into a growing set of headwinds, from the global recession to lower commodity prices to tight policy at home. We expect recessions in Chile and Argentina, and our growth... 19th October 2022 · 26 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The Bank’s core CPI inflation measures were unchanged in September but, as we expected a decline due to more favourable base effects, that increases the odds of another 75bp interest rate hike next... 19th October 2022 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Tide is turning within the MPC The RBI continued frontloading policy tightening in its late-September meeting with another 50bp hike to the repo rate (to 5.90%) but communications since then suggest that some MPC members are ready... 19th October 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (September) Final inflation data for September confirm that price pressures are very strong and broad-based. While headline inflation should fall next year as energy and food inflation drop back, the core rate is... 19th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.) While South Africa’s headline rate edged down to 7.5% y/y in September, the surprising strength of core inflation will push policymakers to deliver another 75bp hike in the benchmark interest rate, to... 19th October 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The further strengthening in domestic price pressures despite the clear weakening in the economic outlook supports our view that the Bank of England will raise interest rates by 100 basis points, from... 19th October 2022 · 3 mins read
