Emerging Europe Economics Update Energy shock halts Turkey’s rebalancing High energy prices are leading to a surge in Turkey’s imports and have pushed up inflation sharply. While the central bank appears to have room to stand pat for now, a prolonged period of high energy... 5th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA hikes again, but sees risks as more two-sided The RBA’s decision to hike rates again at its meeting today came as little surprise. In her post-meeting press conference, Governor Bullock argued that with policy settings mildly restrictive again... 5th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: Global macro update – Is an adverse economic scenario becoming more likely? 6th May 2026, 2:00PM BST There are still no clear signs of a near-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Even when it does reopen, uncertainty remains over how quickly physical energy supply can recover.
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (May 2026) Given the potential for incoming inflation data to surprise to the upside of the RBA’s expectations, we think further policy tightening remains likely. 5th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (May 26) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The government’s decision to cap gasoline prices means that inflation won’t rise far above the BoJ’s... 5th May 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The ECB’s balancing act Data released this week add to the evidence that the hit to the economy from higher energy prices could be a bit bigger than we have assumed in our baseline forecasts. But the upside risks to... 1st May 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA mixed trade and fiscal data, Kenya’s strains building The impact of the Iran war is likely to lead to a (manageable) deterioration in South Africa’s trade and budget balances this year. Elsewhere, Kenya’s latest data pointed to slowing growth and rising... 1st May 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Three key points when swimming in a sea of scenarios Energy prices are currently a bit higher than those incorporated into our baseline scenario and the Bank of England’s scenarios A and B, which increases the chances of the Bank of England raising... 1st May 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central Europe’s resilience, Polish inflation overshoots The April survey data for Central Europe published this week suggest that the region is weathering the early effects of the Iran war better than the euro-zone. But the surveys also point to a sharp... 1st May 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Some signs of easing manufacturing overcapacity The protection that Chinese firms are receiving from high global energy prices, alongside surging overseas chip demand, have pushed up profit margins in Chinese industry and resulted in a slight... 1st May 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Plenty of inflation still in the pipeline for Australia While the pickup in Australia’s inflation rate in Q1 fell short of the analyst consensus, it remains far too high for the RBA’s comfort. Moreover, with the indirect effects of higher energy prices on... 1st May 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1 2026) & HICP (April 2026) The euro-zone economy lost a little pace even before the Iran war began , and the business surveys point to stagnation at the start of Q2. Meanwhile, the pick-up in inflation in April reflected higher... 30th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ keen to hike but risks tilted towards further delay We are sending this publication one day earlier than usual because our Singapore office is closed due to a public holiday on 1st May. The Bank of Japan is clearly worried about the inflationary... 30th April 2026 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Apr. 26) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s economy had a strong start to the year, with a surge in exports boosting GDP growth in Q1. Higher global oil prices should provide a tailwind to China’s... 29th April 2026 · 0 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone EC Survey & German State CPI (April 2026) April’s EC survey suggests the Iran war may hit euro-zone activity a bit harder than we are forecasting. Services firms’ selling price expectations rose further but not enough for the ECB to take... 29th April 2026 · 2 mins read
