US Economics Update The implications of the Court of Appeals ruling on tariffs In the wake of the Court of Appeals’ decision upholding a lower court finding that Trump exceeded his executive powers by imposing sweeping universal and reciprocal tariffs, this Update answers key... 2nd September 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Prop to UK inflation from linked prices will fade Even though the components of inflation that are directly linked to past inflation rates have played a big role in the recent rebound in CPI inflation, we think their influence will fade over the next... 1st September 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe remained at weak levels in August suggesting that industry continues to be a drag on the region’s growth. That said, other survey data suggest that... 1st September 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland walking a tightrope with loose fiscal stance The reaction in Polish financial markets to the government’s draft budget for 2026 outlined this week, which envisages a deficit of 6.5% of GDP, has been limited, but we think investors may be too... 29th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Milei on shakier ground, Brazil’s slowdown The decision by the Argentinian government to support the peso by raising required reserve ratios for banks highlights a point we’ve been making for a while – that the Milei administration is firmly... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (July 2025) The rise in core PCE prices in July was entirely due to a rise in core services prices, and is further evidence that tariffs are having minimal impact on goods prices. Meanwhile, the rise in real... 29th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Tight labour market will prompt further BoJ tightening There are signs that the economy is losing momentum in response to US tariffs. However, with the labour market still extremely tight and inflation running well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, we... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Strong data out of Australia, Luxon’s faux pas There are tentative signs that the Australian economy may be starting to heat up. We learnt that underlying inflation accelerated anew in July, while a new ABS survey showed that firms are becoming... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Interest Rate Announcement (Aug. ’25) The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut its overnight deposit rate by a larger-than-expected 200bp, to 22.00%, and given our view that inflation will decline further over the rest of the year, we think... 28th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economies of Central and Eastern Europe generally held up well in Q2 and, despite the... 28th August 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Aug.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) generally rose in August despite the higher 15% US tariff on the EU coming into force, and point to an... 28th August 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (August 2025) August’s business and consumer survey from the European Commission adds to the impression that the damage from higher US tariffs has been limited. Nevertheless, economic growth remains sluggish. 28th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) We think economies across Sub-Saharan Africa will weather US tariffs relatively well. Indeed, improved terms of trade (for most) and lower inflation and interest rates should support a modest pick-up... 27th August 2025 · 0 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Climate Monthly: Tackling overcapacity; plastic pact bottled; beef-flation Overcapacity in China’s solar industry is set to remain a significant concern for policymakers and leading firms – in both China and the West – as the latest plans to address excess production... 27th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We believe monetary easing has further to run in the Antipodes. The case for policy stimulus is clear... 27th August 2025 · 1 min read
