Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks on the sidelines, will Orbán go? Communications from central banks in the region suggest that the uncertainty from the Iran war will prompt them to stand pat for the time being, but strong underlying price pressures mean that... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA will hike rates to 4.60% this year The RBA's decision to hike rates this week was underpinned by its view that upside risks to inflation outweigh downside risks to employment. We suspect that will remain the case for some time. Given... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rising chance of ECB hikes in first half of the year Before ECB policymakers react to the rise in energy prices, they will wait for more clarity on the size and duration of the shock. There would be no need for a response if energy prices dropped back... 19th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (March 2026) The ECB’s press release and updated forecasts suggest that policymakers think that the inflationary effects of higher energy prices will outweigh the disinflationary effects of weaker economic growth... 19th March 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Feb. 2026) The large upside surprise to the PPI in February confirms that stronger inflationary pressures were already making their way through supply chains even prior to the surge in oil prices. Final demand... 18th March 2026 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Energy shock looms large over India’s state elections India’s state election cycle kicks back into gear next month with the energy shock from the Iran conflict reverberating across the country. That raises the stakes for New Delhi: if the crisis... 18th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will hike rates again in May Although the RBA’s decision to raise rates at its meeting today was made by the narrowest of margins, the split vote primarily reflected differences regarding the timing of the move rather than the... 17th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Feb 2026) The further moderation in core inflation in February joins last month’s weak Labour Force Survey as reason to think the Bank of Canada will not move to hike rates anytime soon despite the evolving... 16th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Energy shortages rippling through Australian supply chains With supplies of crude oil from the Gulf dwindling, local prices of petroleum products imported from the Asia-Pacific region have already risen more sharply than movements in crude oil prices would... 16th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Is the economy tipping into recession? The weakness in activity in January and the labour market in February leaves GDP at risk of a second consecutive quarterly contraction. However, temporary factors are seemingly to blame, as the recent... 13th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SSA fuel prices, inflation and the policy response Sub-Saharan Africa looks better placed to face the current energy shock than the last one in 2022. But the region is still vulnerable to the conflict in the Middle East via the impact on fuel supplies... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed unlikely to overreact to inflation resurgence We don't expect the Fed to overreact to the resurgence in its preferred PCE inflation measure given it partly reflects the outsized weighting of particular items and there is still plenty of... 13th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Terms of trade boost, Copom: 25bp vs 50bp As net energy exporters, most major Latin American economies benefit on net from the renewed leg up in oil prices. As thing stand, we don't think the inflationary impact will stop Brazil's central... 13th March 2026 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Jan) The weakness in GDP growth at the end of last year was more severe than initially thought but, given the government shutdown appears to have been a significant drag, we anticipate a strong rebound in... 13th March 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Middle East conflict already hurting the UK economy The rises in petrol prices and mortgage rates show that the new stagflationary pressures we previously warned about due to the conflict in the Middle East have arrived. We think the Bank of England... 13th March 2026 · 8 mins read
