Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jan.) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose further to 29.9% y/y in January and the latest sharp fall in the naira means that it is likely to reach close to 35% y/y over the coming months. We expect the... 15th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Consumer Prices (Jan.) We’d expected a large fall in Czech inflation in January, but the collapse from 6.9% y/y in December to just 2.3% y/y shows that price pressures are dissipating even more quickly than we’d anticipated... 15th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jan. 24) Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate edged up from a two-year low of 1.5% y/y in December to 1.6% y/y in January, but we expect that inflation will ease again in the coming months and remain low... 15th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Inflation will fall into target band this year Non-labour input costs are now moderating which should soon result in a more rapid slowdown in consumer price inflation than most are anticipating. 15th February 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Mind the Gap: Markets should focus on PCE not CPI The strong reaction to the January CPI data demonstrates that markets still don’t fully comprehend that the Fed is focused on the alternative PCE measure of inflation. While core CPI inflation was... 14th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jan.) The stabilisation in Russian inflation in January, at 7.4% y/y, should provide cover for the central bank to leave its policy rate unchanged at 16.00% at its meeting on Friday, rather than continue... 14th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will continue to watch, worry, and wait With activity and inflation both softer than it had expected a few months ago, the RBNZ will likely stay put at its meeting at the end of the month. However, with a still-tight labour market fuelling... 14th February 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jan. 2024) By staying at 4.0% in January rather than rising as widely expected (BoE 4.1%, CE 4.1%, consensus 4.2%), January’s UK CPI inflation figures are better than expected and do not mimic yesterday’s... 14th February 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The unexpectedly-strong 0.4% m/m increase in core CPI prices in January will feed the “last mile is the hardest” narrative – with core CPI inflation unchanged at 3.9% – but, other than a very... 13th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (January) The large decrease in headline inflation in Switzerland in January means the inflation rate looks sure to undershoot the SNB’s Q1 forecast of 1.8%. Along with the fall in core inflation, we think this... 13th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Takeaways from the latest EM central bank meetings A key point that stands out from the raft of EM central bank decisions over the past couple of weeks is that policymakers are focussed much more on domestically-generated price pressures than the Fed... 12th February 2024 · 4 mins read
India Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) In the context of its continued hawkish communications, we doubt that the drop in headline consumer price inflation in January will be enough to convince the RBI to pivot yet. But it is clear that... 12th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Copom’s challenges, Amlo’s amendments This week’s release of the minutes to the latest Copom meeting, January CPI figures and December budget data support our view that Brazil’s central bank will lower interest rates by less than most... 9th February 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Bad news coming, but better times ahead We’d recommend ignoring any reports on the back of next week’s data releases that the UK economy is heading in the wrong direction on inflation and activity. It may only be a few months before... 9th February 2024 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Encouraging news on inflation, Indonesia elections The most recent batch of inflation figures for the region paint an encouraging picture. Headline inflation fell again in most countries last month and is now within target nearly everywhere. With... 9th February 2024 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Paytm fallout, RBI unmoved, new Inflation Dashboard The RBI left rates on hold as expected this week, but much of the discussion at the press conference was on its clamp down on the activities of Paytm Payments Bank. We don’t think this is a major... 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
