Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuelan inflation, Mexico’s slowdown Inflation and activity figures out of Mexico this week bolster our view that consensus growth forecasts for 2024 look a bit too optimistic and that Banxico will start its monetary easing cycle next... 23rd February 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Underlying inflation still a worry, more German gloom The recent increase in surveys of price pressures and the strong German wage figures released this week suggest there is still not enough evidence to convince the ECB that underlying inflationary... 23rd February 2024 · 9 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Thailand under pressure to cut interest rates Thailand has experienced by far the slowest recovery from the pandemic in the region – with GDP just 0.5% bigger than it was in the final quarter of 2019. While much of the weakness is due to the slow... 23rd February 2024 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI minutes highlight first signs of dissent The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s February policy meeting released this week show the first signs of dissent as MPC member Jayanth Varma argued that a cut to the repo rate would be prudent to show... 23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Survey data point to resilience in economic activity Flash PMI data published yesterday showed that Australia's composite output index rose to a 10-month high in February. Taken together with other leading indicators, the data suggest upside risks to... 23rd February 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to stubborn price pressures in Europe Februarys’ flash PMI surveys suggest that economic activity improved in Europe at the start of this year. But services prices pressures remained elevated, especially in the UK and euro-zone, meaning... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (February 2024) Our Latin America Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest monthly activity data suggest that Mexico and Brazil ended 2023 on a weak note, a... 22nd February 2024 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. India’s economy performed exceptionally well last year and the latest data suggest that it has made... 22nd February 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why has euro-zone services inflation stopped falling? The stalling in services disinflation in recent months is largely due to technical factors and one-offs. If services prices continue to increase at their recent pace in month-on-month terms, the year... 22nd February 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb.) The drop back in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.5% y/y in the first half of February leaves Banxico on course to begin an easing cycle at March’s Board meeting. That said, the rise in core... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Feb. 2024) The small rise in the composite activity PMI, from 52.9 in January to 53.3 in February (CE forecast 53.0, consensus 52.9), suggests that the mildest of mild recessions at the end of 2023 may soon be... 22nd February 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to remain in “wait... 22nd February 2024 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The economy continues to appear impervious to higher interest rates and, although we expect growth to slow over the first half of this year, that slowdown is likely to be modest. But we don’t expect... 21st February 2024 · 1 min read
Event Global Drop-In: Long Run Economic Outlook – What to expect from global growth to 2050 29th February 2024, 3:00PM GMT An AI productivity boom. A Chinese structural slowdown. Aging workforces.
Global Economics Update Can we still rely on the PMIs? The S&P Global PMI surveys have not been fully reliable guides to activity in major advanced economies over the past few years. But their relationship with GDP outside the US is still fairly strong... 21st February 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up to 5.3% y/y in January and the rise in core inflation is likely to spook an already-hawkish SARB, possibly pushing the start of an easing cycle even... 21st February 2024 · 2 mins read
