Emerging Markets Economics Update The threat to central bank independence in EMs Threats to central bank independence in the emerging world are, thankfully, rare at the moment (Indonesia is one current point of concern though). However, efforts to undermine independence would... 10th September 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Aug 2025) The downside surprise to the PPI in August was driven by a compression of trade margins, reversing their unexpected widening in July, and therefore overstates the softness of producer prices... 10th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Aug. 2025) The small fall in inflation in Brazil, to 5.1% y/y in August, is unlikely to change the central bank’s tone at its meeting next week. Interest rates will remain on hold at 15.00%. But with inflation... 10th September 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economic Outlook Economic resilience amid US tariff hit After an exceptionally strong first half of 2025, India’s economy faces a more challenging rest of this year and 2026 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if... 10th September 2025 · 17 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025) Egypt’s headline inflation rate decreased from 13.9% y/y in July to 12.0% y/y in August, its slowest pace since March 2022, which supports our view that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) can continue to... 10th September 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug. 2025) Headline CPI inflation slipped back into negative territory last month, but this just reflects volatile food prices. Underlying inflation has actually ticked up lately. This is mostly due to temporary... 10th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) Economic growth has been fairly resilient to tariffs so far and, as long as tariffs stay around the 15% agreed in the EU-US trade deal, the hit to activity should be small. But growth will be sluggish... 9th September 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025) The small rise in Mexican inflation to 3.6% y/y in August still leaves the headline rate within Banxico’s target range and means that policymakers are likely to deliver another 25bp cut, to 7.50%, at... 9th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025) The larger-than-expected fall in Chilean inflation, to 4.0% y/y, increases the chance that the central bank delivers a 25bp interest rate cut at tomorrow’s meeting. That said, with inflation still... 8th September 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Angolan oil, Ghana CPI & cedi, SA inflation target Angola's oil sector is continuing to struggle and, while investment announcements from multinationals this week should help eventually, a backdrop of lower oil prices and a fragile fiscal position... 5th September 2025 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: Deliberately informative The account of July’s ECB meeting revealed that Christine Lagarde’s messaging in the press conference was “deliberately uninformative about future interest rate decisions”. We set ourselves a slightly... 4th September 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update UK Versus the Euro-zone in Charts Over the next 18 months, we expect CPI inflation and interest rates in the UK to fall closer to the euro-zone equivalents. And even though it has its own problems, the UK’s fiscal situation is not as... 4th September 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (August) Headline inflation was unchanged in August and is still likely to remain close to, but above, zero over the coming months. While today’s data and recent comments by SNB Vice Chairman Antoine Martin... 4th September 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug. 2025) The continued decline in Turkish inflation last month, to 33.0% y/y, keeps the door open to large interest rate cuts at the central bank’s meeting next Thursday. That said, with inflation coming in a... 3rd September 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Japan will continue to shrug off global trade tensions GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace as external demand softens. However, with consumption growth still healthy and underlying inflation set to remain... 3rd September 2025 · 17 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show signs of improvement in global industry The latest PMIs suggest that global industry has been fairly resilient in the wake of US tariffs so far and may already be past the worst. Meanwhile, goods price pressures remain much stronger in the... 2nd September 2025 · 2 mins read
