Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (May 2026) In our baseline scenario, WTI averages $80pb over the second half of the year. This will boost GDP growth slightly and keep headline inflation above 2.5% in the coming months. But the backdrop of weak... 12th May 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack - Iran War Edition (May 2026) While Gulf economies have already taken a big hit from the Iran war, the effect on activity in major economies seems to have been limited so far. Inflation has begun to rise and will continue to do so... 12th May 2026 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Apr 2026) The 0.4% m/m gain in core CPI in April was largely due to the expected jump in owners’ equivalent rent and another gain in airfares, rather than reflecting a significant broadening of inflation... 12th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Apr. 2026) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 4.4% y/y in April shouldn't prevent the central bank (BCB) from continuing with its cautious monetary easing cycle. We expect 25bp interest rate cuts at each of the... 12th May 2026 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr. 2026) The fallout from the Iran War pushed up inflation again in April but price pressures remain narrow in scope and aren't likely to build into a wider reflationary impulse. Inflation looks set to climb a... 11th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s opposition fractures, SSA inflation and El Niño The fracturing of Nigeria’s opposition has improved President Tinubu’s re-election chances. While Tinubu has helped to improve macroeconomic stability, whoever wins the election will need to tend to... 8th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Would ECB rate hikes be a mistake? With interest rate hikes by the ECB looking likely, we are often asked whether this would be a mistake, with unfavourable comparisons made to previous ECB monetary policy decisions. But there are... 8th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish rhetoric in Central Europe but no rush to tighten Communications from central banks in Czechia and Poland this week suggest that both are set to keep rates unchanged for a long time. That said, policymakers in Poland would probably be the first to... 8th May 2026 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Will India’s electronics hub get a new lead man? Tamil Nadu’s election result has introduced new uncertainty into India's most important electronics manufacturing hub. Actor-turned-politician C Joseph Vijay’s TVK party has fallen just short of an... 8th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Risks remain tilted towards BoJ holding its fire We suspect the Bank of Japan won't read too much into the slowdown in core inflation in Tokyo in April, nor will it see the recent rally in the yen as a precursor to softer imported inflation. However... 8th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Deal to end the war edging closer? Hopes for an end to the Iran war have grown (again) in recent days. But there are lots of points of contention that will arise during the 30-day negotiation period and divisions within the Iranian... 7th May 2026 · 6 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr. 2026) The small fall in Mexican inflation (both headline and core) last month, taken together with the decline in GDP in Q1, gives policymakers at the central bank room to deliver one final 25bp rate cut in... 7th May 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Higher energy prices will lift building costs On their own, the recent surge in crude oil prices could lift construction costs by around 4%. However, the bigger picture is that in contrast to the previous energy shock in 2022, conditions in... 7th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (May 2026) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation will rise well above target in both Australia and New Zealand as a result of the oil price... 7th May 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update El Niño could compound effects of the Iran war shock An El Niño in the second half of the year – as seems increasingly likely – would add to the upside pressures on food and energy prices stemming from the Iran war. The macroeconomic effects would be... 6th May 2026 · 5 mins read
