Japan Economics Weekly

Japan Weekly: Strong inflation will prompt further policy tightening

At its meeting next week, the Bank of Japan will reportedly push back the timing for meeting its 2% inflation target on a sustained basis. That would be a mistake though as the fallout from global...

25th April 2025 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2025)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economies of Central and Eastern Europe are generally less exposed to higher US...

24th April 2025 · 1 min read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (April 2025)

The latest data suggest that the world economy got off to a weak start in 2025 even before most tariffs were implemented. While tariff front-running provided a boost to global industrial activity and...

24th April 2025 · 1 min read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.)

The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate in the first half of April, to 4.0% y/y, is unlikely to shift Banxico’s focus away from the weakness of the economy and we expect it to deliver another...

24th April 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

ANZ Chart Pack (Apr. 2025)

Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. At first glance, Australia and New Zealand should be fairly insulated from the brunt of the US’s...

24th April 2025 · 1 min read

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (Apr. 2025)

We are assuming that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs becomes permanent, keeping tariffs at 10% for most countries except China which will face a steeper 60% levy. If Congress quickly redirects...

23rd April 2025 · 1 min read

Global Economics Update

PMIs point to stagflationary impact of tariffs

The latest flash PMIs suggest that tariffs and trade policy uncertainty weighed on activity and confidence in most DMs at the start of Q2 and boosted price pressures in the US.

23rd April 2025 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Flash PMIs (Apr. 2025)

The marked fall in the composite PMI in April raises the chances that the uncertainty stemming from the US tariffs chaos will be a bigger drag on the UK economy than we previously anticipated. That...

23rd April 2025 · 3 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar' 25.)

The larger-than-expected fall in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 2.7% y/y in March will give the Reserve Bank more confidence that its easing cycle can resume. We expect a 25bp reduction to...

23rd April 2025 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (April 2025)

April’s euro-zone flash PMIs suggest that the immediate damage to production from US trade policy has been limited so far. But firms reported some front-loading of orders, so output might take a...

23rd April 2025 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Trade war not weighing on business confidence

The available business surveys show that confidence hasn’t weakened after Liberation Day. However, with price pressures coming off the boil, the Bank of Japan will continue to tighten policy only...

23rd April 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Flash PMIs (Apr. 2025)

23rd April 2025 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Egypt’s interest rate cuts have a lot further to go

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) decided to cut interest rates on Thursday and we think monetary conditions will be loosened a lot further than most expect over the course of this year. That said...

22nd April 2025 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Canada Weekly: Bank holds off on further loosening awaiting trade clarity

While the Bank of Canada held rates steady at 2.75% this week - despite markets pricing in roughly 50% odds of a 25bp cut - it balanced this out by striking a mostly dovish tone in its communications...

17th April 2025 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Europe Weekly: ECB; pharma tariff front-running; France’s budget

This week brought some evidence that front-running US tariffs boosted euro-zone industrial production in Q1, but this effect will of course be “transitory”. Meanwhile, statements from France’s finance...

17th April 2025 · 6 mins read