US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Payrolls move the narrative back in the doves’ favour The downside surprise to payrolls in July and significant downward revisions to May and June have left markets convinced that the Fed will cut in September, which is looking more likely but isn’t a... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs show global industry off to a weak start in Q3 The latest PMIs suggest that global industrial activity lost some momentum at the start of Q3 and will probably weaken further from here. 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA, Mozambique and Ghana cut rates, US tariffs Central banks in Ghana, Mozambique and South Africa continued their monetary easing cycles this week, and the dovish tone of South Africa's meeting supports our below-consensus rate forecast... 1st August 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Mexico’s tariff resilience, exemptions for Chile & Brazil Having found itself in Trump’s firing line a few weeks ago, this week’s tariffs announcements were better for much of Latin America than had been feared and it now looks like the hit to GDP will be... 1st August 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Euro-zone looks resilient to tariffs, German budget The US-EU trade deal announced last Sunday and confirmed by the recent US Executive Order was in line with expectations for a 15% tariff on most goods exports to the US. We think it will cost the euro... 1st August 2025 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (July 2025) Headline inflation remained at the target in July and core inflation was only a touch higher. Both were broadly in line with the ECB’s forecasts. So there was little in the data to suggest that the... 1st August 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update New US tariff regime still not the end of the story President Trump’s latest flurry of tariffs implies that the US effective tariff rate will rise to about 18%, from 2.3% last year. That is a little higher than we assumed and so presents modest... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: CPI data signal green light for August rate cut Australian CPI data released this week will have gone a long way toward assuaging the RBA's concerns about lingering price pressures in the economy. And although retail sales picked up strongly in... 1st August 2025 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jul. 25) China’s economy slowed in Q2, despite industrial activity holding up well in the face of US tariffs. With US-China ties improving, we don’t think tariffs will be as significant of a drag on growth as... 31st July 2025 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB cuts and unofficially adopts lower inflation target The South African Reserve Bank’s decision to continue with its interest easing cycle today, with a 25bp cut to 7.00% was unsurprising, and the highlight of the meeting was Governor Kganyago’s... 31st July 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa will be able to cope with higher US tariffs. And better terms of trade for most countries mean that painful currency adjustments are unlikely. That alongside lower... 30th July 2025 · 0 mins read
RBI Watch RBI Watch: Why we think the easing cycle is over The further sharp drop in headline inflation in June has raised the prospect of another interest rate cut at the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) upcoming MPC meeting on Wednesday 6th August. But given... 30th July 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Politburo prioritises supply-side over demand-side The readout from today’s Politburo meeting strikes a less dovish tone compared with the previous meeting on economic affairs back in April and stops short of committing to any additional monetary or... 30th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (July) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that regional GDP growth maintained a moderate pace, at 2.0-2.5% y/y, at the start of Q3. The prices components of the... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2 2025) With underlying inflation inching closer towards the mid-point of the RBA’s 2-3% target, the Board should have no qualms about handing down a 25bp cut next month. And with activity still weak and the... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
