Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank’s tightening cycle not yet over The Norges Bank’s decision to raise interest rates today for the third time since the beginning of thefinancial market turmoil is in stark contrast to the actions of some other central banks. Given... 12th December 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus What has the euro done for the euro-zone? The euro cannot be blamed for relatively weak economic growth in the euro-zone, or for the region’s difficulties competing in international markets. But neither has it brought the vast benefits that... 29th November 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank signals business as usual Today’s decision by the Norges Bank to press ahead with the previously indicated rise in its key interest rate from 4.5% to 4.75% supports our view that central banks are unlikely to be deflected from... 15th August 2007 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey: the end of a golden era? There is a strong possibility that this month’s parliamentary elections in Turkey will return a weaker government. If so, then GDP growth could slow to around 4.5% per annum over the medium-term... 4th July 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank won’t wait long to continue tightening Although the Norges Bank unexpectedly kept rates on hold at 4% today, we do not think that this represents a fundamental change in the outlook for Norwegian interest rates ahead. 25th April 2007 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norge Bank signals significant further tightenin The Norges Bank hiked interest rates today by 25bps to 4.0%, marking a fourth consecutive move and the ninth step in the tightening cycle which began in June 2005. This also keeps rates a step ahead... 15th March 2007 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The euro’s appreciation: who will suffer most? We expect the Netherlands, Ireland and Finland to feel the strongest impact on GDP growth from the euro’s appreciation. In France too, it seems possible that movements in the euro could stop the... 31st July 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Euro’s strength won’t curb the ECB The recent appreciation of the euro exchange rate has led to suggestions that the European Central Bank can afford to take its finger off the interest rate trigger. After all, conventional indicators... 13th July 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Sterling’s rise eases pressure to raise rates The MPC’s latest forecasts suggested that interest rates would need to rise for the 2% inflation target to be hit. But these forecasts did not count on the recent rise in the sterling exchange rate... 30th May 2006 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus The rising dollar – what’s driving it and will it continue? The rebound in the dollar is looking increasingly over-extended. Shifting interest rate differentials are still the most common explanation of recent dollar moves against the euro. But these cannot... 23rd November 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Should Italy leave EMU? The fact that Italy’s economic under-performance is linked to the weakness of its external sector prompts the question of whether Italy should leave EMU to allow its currency to depreciate and regain... 20th September 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Sterling on the brink The sterling exchange rate could be on the brink of a major downward adjustment. This could have positive implications for the economy if it revives the beleaguered export sector and leads to better... 12th July 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The falling dollar’s threat to the UK The realignment of the US dollar against the world’s other major currencies has pushed the dollar/pound exchange rate to its highest levels since Black Wednesday and put a $2.00 pound within reach... 27th January 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone economy live with a stronger euro? 18th January 2005 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the ECB intervene to restrain the euro? The ECB has already started to express concern about the rising euro. This has led to increased speculation about when the ECB might intervene to resist further strengthening. However, we believe that... 10th November 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The pound at a critical juncture (Q1 04) The pound has been caught in the middle of a major realignment between the US dollar and the euro, which we believe could have significantly further to go. 30th December 2003 · 1 min read
