UK Economics Update Sterling’s tumble won’t stop interest rates falling The pound’s recent sharp fall is good news for the future prospects of the UK’s exporters. But it won’t prevent the Monetary Policy Committee from having to cut interest rates aggressively in response... 2nd September 2008 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Adjustment to economic gloom has further to go Having previously looked complacent, the UK financial markets have started to respond to the gloomier outlook for the macro-economy. Interest rate expectations, bond yields, equities and the pound... 21st August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling's fundamental adjustment has further to go The latest drop in the sterling exchange rate has been largely driven by short-term movements in interest rate expectations. But we see the fall as part of a long overdue adjustment which has... 14th August 2008 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets still distorted one year on from the credit crunch (Aug 08) One year on from the start of the credit crunch, distortions in the money markets remain and most securitisation markets are still closed. But the sharp fall in the oil price over the last month... 14th August 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A cautionary note on the dollar Last week’s bounce has prompted us to raise our forecasts for the dollar against the euro, yen and sterling, but we had already expected the US currency to recover some ground in the second half of... 11th August 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update No policy shift on the Chinese renminbi Despite the slower pace of appreciation against the dollar in recent weeks, the renminbi is still likely to rise significantly more than the 5% or so priced into the forwards markets for the next 12... 24th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets wake up to the economic gloom (Jul 08) The recent problems of the US government sponsored enterprises, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have contributed to an apparent shift in the markets’ attention away from the upward pressure on inflation... 17th July 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update No consensus for changes to GCC dollar pegs The media is again full of speculation that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are about to revalue their currencies against the dollar, or drop their pegs completely in favour of a currency... 15th July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Black or Golden? The economic effects of the fall in the pound (Q3 2008) The fall in the UK exchange rate over the last six months has been broadly similar in scale to that seen after the pound fell out of the ERM in 1992. But while this should eventually lead to a period... 2nd July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Attention shifts from activity to inflation (Jun 08) The markets have recently shifted their attention away from the downside risks to activity to the upside risks to inflation. The bond market’s inflation expectations have risen to levels not seen... 9th June 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Has Bernanke really said anything new on the dollar? Fed Chairman Bernanke’s comments yesterday on the inflationary impact of the weaker dollar have been widely interpreted as signalling a turning point in the central bank's attitude to the currency. We... 4th June 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is a step revaluation of the renminbi a possibility? A large one-off revaluation of the renminbi remains highly unlikely. It would lead to job losses and give a jolt to China’s fragile financial sector. But, with officials increasingly concerned about... 21st May 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is China now targeting a trade-weighted exchange rate? The renminbi’s long pause at seven to the dollar is evidence that the Chinese currency is as closely tied to the US dollar as ever. A gradual loosening of that link is likely to be the next major... 19th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Bond markets spooked by inflation (May 08) The last month has seen the UK’s bond market become much more concerned about the outlook for inflation. In particular, 20 year break-even inflation rates have climbed to levels not seen since the... 19th May 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro not about to collapse Speculation is growing that the euro’s extended rally against the US dollar and UK pound is finally at an end. But with the euro-zone economy in fundamentally better shape than those of the US and UK... 2nd May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Lower pound will not prevent a manufacturing recession The sharp fall in the pound seen since last summer is unlikely to prevent the manufacturing sector from slipping into a recession this year. But it should mean that the downturn will be fairly shallow... 23rd April 2008 · 1 min read
