China Chart Pack No, China isn’t exporting inflation Some believe that China is adding to global inflationary pressure. The opposite is closer to the truth: the large increase in China’s trade surplus over the past year signals that supply from China... 30th June 2021 · 13 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US ISM and payrolls could add fuel to the dollar rally The US dollar seems set to end the week slightly weaker, but has held much of its gains following last Wednesday’s FOMC announcement. With increasing focus on the prospects for monetary tightening... 25th June 2021 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We think the rally in the US dollar has further to run The sharp rise in the US dollar following last week’s FOMC meeting reinforces our view that the greenback will appreciate further against most currencies this year. 24th June 2021 · 10 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Jun. 2021) Given that the moves in most financial markets since the previous editionof our Long Run Returns Monitor have been fairly small–at least for the period as a whole –the returns that we are projecting... 24th June 2021 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Fractious politics don’t change Swedish macro picture The passing of this morning’s “no confidence” vote in Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven has plunged Sweden back into a period of political purgatory. While the political outlook is unclear, the... 21st June 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Fed surprise points to further dollar strength The FOMC’s optimistic assessment of the outlook and the significant shift up in its “dot plot” projections has sent the US dollar soaring over the past couple of days. We have brought forward our own... 18th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily We expect further US dollar appreciation We think that the surge in the US dollar which has followed Wednesday’s FOMC meeting is a sign of things to come. 18th June 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We think that the yen will weaken further before long We expect the yen will continue to depreciate against the US dollar this year as 10-year US Treasury yields resume their rise. 18th June 2021 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Economic rebound underway, capital inflows pick up Real-time data show a notable pick up in activity over the past couple of weeks, most likely due to the easing of virus restrictions in some major states. There are clearly upside risks to our view... 18th June 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the FX market reaction to the FOMC The reaction to this week’s FOMC meeting supports our view that the US dollar will strengthen against most currencies this year. 17th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gas sector expansion to boost the Israeli Shekel A further expansion of gas production is likely to boost Israel’s current account surplus by an additional 0.4% of GDP per annum by 2025. This will put upwards pressure on the real exchange rate, but... 16th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Egyptian pound’s rally to go into reverse The Egyptian pound has appreciated significantly since the devaluation in 2016 and there are signs that the strength of the currency is weighing on the country’s external competitiveness. We forecast... 15th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily DM central banks, bond yields and the US dollar We think that the various developed market (DM) central bank meetings this week will support our view that long-dated government bond yields will generally rise further in the US than elsewhere over... 14th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ruble gains, Hungary policy rift, stronger CEE currencies The Russian ruble appreciated to its strongest level against the dollar since last July this week and the balance of forces now increasingly favours further gains, but a lot depends on geopolitics and... 11th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update We now forecast major CEE currencies to outperform the euro We now expect interest rates to rise across Central and Eastern Europe in the coming years and for all the major currencies to strengthen against the euro, with the Czech koruna and Polish zloty... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect rising inflation to lead to EM currency strength Despite rising inflation, we continue to think that most emerging market (EM) central banks will tighten policy more slowly than investors currently expect. 9th June 2021 · 6 mins read
