India Economics Weekly Is the Adani crisis a macro concern? The short-seller attack on the Adani Group has continued to dominate the headlines this week. From the macro perspective there are few signs of contagion, with equities up slightly on the week in... 3rd February 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s re-opening and EMs: three key questions We’ve received a lot of questions recently about the impact of China’s re-opening on EMs, including at our monthly Drop-in today. This Update answers three key questions on the winners and losers, the... 2nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What the latest central bank meetings mean for markets Despite investors’ dovish interpretations of recent major central bank meetings, we don’t think monetary policy will give markets too much more of a boost. 2nd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Assessing the winners and losers since China’s rebound Our view that the stock market in China will continue to recover in the coming months even as its counterpart in the US falters ahead of a mild recession there raises the question of how equities... 2nd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Three key points ahead of the FOMC We think that three main points are worth highlighting when gauging the scope for the Fed to spring a surprise on global markets when its policy meeting concludes later today. 1st February 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update We think FX market volatility will edge higher from here Tension across financial markets has come down significantly since November, contributing to the US dollar’s broad-based weakness in that period. Ahead of key central bank meetings this week, this... 1st February 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack We think the rally in risky assets is on borrowed time The broad-based rally in “risky” assets that got underway in Q4 of last year has continued in 2023 so far, with global equities, developed market (DM) REITs, corporate bonds and industrial metals all... 31st January 2023 · 12 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Growth faltering in region’s biggest economies While the economic outlook in much of the world has turned less downbeat in recent weeks, the prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa’s two biggest economies have, if anything, got gloomier due to homegrown... 31st January 2023 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt: benefits of a weaker currency emerging The further falls in the Egyptian pound over the past month will push up inflation and prompt the central bank to deliver more monetary tightening, but there are already signs that the benefits of a... 31st January 2023 · 13 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack China’s recovery may continue to benefit EM equities We think the rapid economic recovery in China will lead to further gains in equities in China and other emerging markets this year. 31st January 2023 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily China’s stock market rally may have further to go Although China’s equities have now rallied a long way, we think they will make some further gains over the rest of this year. 31st January 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Financial conditions, central banks, and recessions The Fed, ECB and BoE meet later this week and we wouldn’t be surprised if they take the chance to push back against the recent loosening in financial conditions. And even if their words don’t have... 30th January 2023 · 6 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We still think some pain is coming for “risky” assets Although there has been some good news for risky assets over the past couple of months, we still think they will struggle before long as economic growth disappoints in major advanced economies. 30th January 2023 · 9 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Worse to come, but UK assets to outperform in 2024 While an improvement in appetite for risk has fuelled a strong start to 2023 by UK equities and sterling, we doubt this will remain a source of support as recessions in the US, the UK and the euro... 30th January 2023 · 13 mins read
Global Markets Update Reassessing our forecasts for euro-zone markets A streak of stronger-than-expected economic data in the euro-zone has given markets there a boost this year. But with much of the good news seemingly already discounted, and, in our view, a still... 27th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the latest rally in the S&P 500 will last We doubt the recent rally in the S&P 500 will prove sustainable. Our view is that US real yields won’t fall much further and that the US economy will soon enter a recession, producing some more near... 27th January 2023 · 8 mins read
