FX Markets Weekly Wrap Weak US payrolls finally break the currency stalemate After a remarkably slow October in currency markets – for all the fireworks in bond and equity markets, most major currencies were roughly unchanged on the month – November has started with a bang... 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily A goldilocks Employment Report for US bonds and equities We think today’s big moves in markets in the wake of October’s US Employment Report are a sign of things to come over the next twelve months or so. 3rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We still don’t expect a “new dawn” for Japan’s equities We expect Japan’s stock market to underperform that of the US in both local- and common-currency terms over the next couple of years. 3rd November 2023 · 4 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Q4 2023) Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes. All projections in this publication are as of 1st November 2023. Our latest projections have been... 2nd November 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily It’s a long way down from the mountain for Gilt yields The yields of UK government bonds (Gilts) have dropped back in recent days, and we think that they will fall further over the next year or so, even if they settle far above their post-pandemic lows. 2nd November 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update BoJ normalisation points to higher JGB yields & stronger yen We think the Bank of Japan’s continued steps towards policy normalisation are consistent with somewhat higher JGB yields and a significant rebound in the yen over the coming quarters. In view of the... 2nd November 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Focus Will falling inflation ultimately push US Treasury yields down? Although Treasury yields have fallen back in recent days, the big picture is that they are still much higher than they were when headline and core inflation peaked more than a year ago in the US. In... 2nd November 2023 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury term premia may not fall back The Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding announcement (QRA) today may have eased some upward pressure on Treasury term premia, but we think these premia are unlikely to fall further over the coming years. 1st November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily YCC tweak fails to help the yen, MoF intervention next? As is often the case, it is hard to know just what to make of the Bank of Japan’s latest policy announcement. Our sense is that the resulting rise in Japanese government bond yields is more likely to... 31st October 2023 · 5 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Our View: Growth in the US and other advanced economies will disappoint, keeping pressure... 31st October 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) The dollar stayed strong in October but failed to add much to its broad-based rally since July. We think elevated US yields are likely to keep the greenback on the front foot, particularly if risk... 31st October 2023 · 1 min read
RBA Watch RBA will hit the brakes once more With inflation surprising on the upside in Q3, we expect the RBA to lift rates by 25bp at its meeting next week. However, we suspect that the next rate hike will be the last one in the current cycle... 31st October 2023 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Asset Allocation Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We expect the fortunes of 'safe' assets to improve over the rest of this year, largely... 30th October 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Worrying signs for the US economy from CMBS spreads A renewed surge in the spreads of private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), at a time when the spreads of high-yield (HY) corporate bonds have remained fairly subdued (see Chart 1)... 30th October 2023 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains under pressure. 30th October 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Currency markets at a crossroad again ahead of the FOMC Despite another week of broadly dollar-positive news, the greenback has continued to drift sideways – suggesting its rally since July is running out of steam. Even though US Q3 GDP came in at nearly 5... 27th October 2023 · 5 mins read
