FX Markets Focus Would a US equity bubble coincide with a stronger dollar (again)? We think the current backdrop is not as favourable for the greenback as the one that prevailed during the dot com era, so we doubt the bubble in US equities we expect would be accompanied by renewed... 25th January 2024 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the ECB market fallout While the dovish reaction to today’s ECB meeting came as a bit of a surprise, we continue to think that the direction of travel for Bund yields – and most sovereign bond yields – will be down this... 25th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Latin American equities may remain laggards While we expect equities around the world to rebound – as a stock market bubble inflates on the back of growing hype around AI – we suspect that Latin American stock markets will keep lagging. 24th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Would BoJ rate hikes matter for Japan’s bond market? Although the Bank of Japan (BoJ) stood its ground at its meeting today, we still expect it to hike its policy rate before long; that, we think, could contribute to a higher 10-year JGB yield. 23rd January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think the rally in the S&P 500 has a lot further to run Judging by the latest rally in some ‘big-tech’ sectors, renewed hype around Artificial Intelligence (AI) seems to explain why the S&P 500 has just racked up a new record high despite a recent rebound... 22nd January 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar grinds higher alongside rising equities and UST yields The US dollar’s rebound has gained momentum this week amid hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials and more evidence out of the US – notably retail sales and jobless claims – of continued resilience in... 19th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily US and UK equities are more alike than it seems US large cap equities have vastly outperformed UK ones over the past year or so, but that is skewed by the performance of the biggest names on both sides of the Atlantic. Indeed, there is little... 19th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The impact of AI on non-US stock markets While we think that enthusiasm around Artificial Intelligence (AI) will mean that equities in the US keep outperforming this year, we see scope for equities in the rest of the world to fare quite well... 19th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t expect China’s markets to stay under pressure for long We project decent near-term gains in China’s equities, think long-dated CGB yields will finish the year around their current levels, and expect the renminbi to rally against the US dollar. In view of... 19th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Rebound in Gilt yields and sterling may not last Although Gilt yields remain elevated and sterling resilient, we expect both to fall over the course of 2024 as disinflationary pressures build in the UK. 18th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to remain in “wait... 18th January 2024 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Why we expect the S&P 500 to soar in 2024 This Global Markets Focus explains why we expect the S&P 500 to soar in 2024, in contrast to those who anticipate a much tougher year for the index after a banner 2023. In view of the wider interest... 17th January 2024 · 16 mins read
Capital Daily China’s faltering economy need not mean a weaker renminbi We still forecast the renminbi to make ground against the US dollar by the end of this year, despite the seemingly stiff headwinds it faces. 17th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We expect GDP growth to slow to a crawl this year, weighed down by weak consumption growth and... 17th January 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily The hawks are ruling 2024 so far… but not really A hawkish mood has prevailed in markets this year, and comments from the Fed’s Waller today seemed to add fuel to that fire, at least initially. But given how aggressively rate cuts were priced in... 16th January 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We think sterling has further to fall against the US dollar While sterling has outperformed other G10 currencies amid the dollar sell-off over the past couple of months, we expect it to reverse its gains against the greenback as short-term Gilt yields edge... 16th January 2024 · 2 mins read
