Capital Daily Good times still on the way for China’s equities We still think China’s equities will benefit from the AI boom and fare well over the rest of the year, but their poor profitability is a growing challenge. 3rd June 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A fundamental or speculative surge in the S&P 500? The S&P 500 broke through 7,600 yesterday for the first time ever. With that in mind, has its AI-related surge since the end of 2022 been fuelled by earnings or the price investors are willing to pay... 2nd June 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Peace deal still MIA; markets still don’t mind A US-Iran peace deal has, yet again, failed to materialise despite reports that one is imminent. But, in spite of another round of tit-for-tat attacks over the weekend, market participants continue to... 1st June 2026 · 7 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (May 26) Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s economy slowed a touch in April. That was entirely driven by weaker domestic demand – China’s exports continued to rise on the back of strong global... 29th May 2026 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily The fate of one of the war’s best hedges China’s government bonds – unlike those almost everywhere else – have largely shrugged off the conflict. We think their medium-run prospects are bright even if a US-Iran deal renders obsolete their... 29th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation could derail the equity market if there is no peace deal Soft data and (another) potential US-Iran deal offer hope that the US is not set for sustained bout of high inflation. But if inflation does stay higher for longer, history suggests that would be a... 28th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Equities Focus Will inflation derail the equity rally? Past form suggests that a sustained period of high inflation would be a headwind to the US stock market and the outperformance of the so-called ‘big tech’ sectors. But inflation would probably need to... 28th May 2026 · 14 mins read
FX Markets Update Risks of a sudden carry trade unwind are building While the Iran war does not appear to have pulled the plug on the carry trade yet, the risk of a sudden unwind may continue to build for as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. But even if it... 28th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Japanese capital repatriation still not a big threat Despite soaring JGB yields, we don’t think global markets have much to fear from a rush of Japanese capital repatriation. 28th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will bumper US IPOs really break the stock market’s back? Not all high-profile US initial public offerings (IPOs) have presaged major corrections in the S&P 500. Nonetheless, this year’s hotly anticipated ‘AI’ deals – from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI – are... 27th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What lies in store for Colombia’s markets post-election? Colombian assets would rally in the event of a victory for a right-wing candidate in the presidential election. Local currency bond yields appear to have the greatest scope to stage a post-election... 27th May 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May 26) Higher energy prices will boost Angola and Nigeria’s economies. With elections on the horizon, governments are likely to spend their windfall. Most others in the region are having to manage worse... 27th May 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Treasury rally still has further to run, if peace actually breaks out Even after their recent rebound, long-term government bonds arguably have more room than equities (and most currencies) to stage a further recovery from the energy price shock if there is a sustained... 26th May 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2026) Capital outflows from EMs have generally eased over the past month. Further progress in talks between the US and Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz would help outflows to decline further. But even... 26th May 2026 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update India trip notes – heatwave, rupee, RBI and AI A week spent visiting clients and contacts in Delhi and Mumbai has underscored the extent to which the Middle East conflict is reverberating through the economy. Several of our discussions were... 26th May 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Three things that might limit any re-opening relief rally The chances of a large, broad-based relief rally if a the Strait of Hormuz is re-opened have probably diminished over time, although some markets have more upside than others. One that might benefit... 25th May 2026 · 6 mins read
