Event Drop-In: Australia’s election, RBA easing and the economic outlook 30th April 2025, 4:00AM BST Australia’s 3rd May general election will take place against a backdrop of further Reserve Bank easing and an economy showing signs of having turned a corner. But how far will the RBA go to cut rates…
Capital Daily Trump’s medicine leaves a bitter taste for equities The carnage in global equity markets has continued after President Trump doubled down on his tariff plans, noting that “sometimes you have to take a medicine to fix something”. We still think he will... 7th April 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Sorting through the post-liberation mess in currencies President Trump’s extraordinary “Liberation Day” announcement has prompted a major risk-off event across financial markets, sending safe-haven currencies soaring and commodity currencies crashing. It... 4th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the market fall-out It’s not often that the US Employment Report is a sideshow. But that’s been the case today, as the ongoing fall-out from Donald Trump’s swingeing “reciprocal” tariffs and China’s strong response to... 4th April 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: China reciprocates, renminbi weakens, Shein on top The offshore renminbi ends the week roughly where it was relative to the dollar when Donald Trump started speaking in the Rose Garden on Wednesday. Fortunately for exporters, the currency has still... 4th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Trump tariff shock heightens risks The larger-than-expected tariff imposed by US President Trump on the EU means the hit to the euro-zone economy will be larger than we had anticipated. For now, a euro-zone recession is still not our... 4th April 2025 · 8 mins read
Event Drop-In: Trump’s reciprocal tariffs – China retaliates and the market’s response 1743773400 With news of China’s retaliation to Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs deepening market misery, senior economists from our Global, China, Europe and Markets teams hosted this s
Equities Update Tariffs and our downgraded forecast for the S&P 500 We are significantly downgrading our end-2025 forecast for the S&P 500 for two key reasons. The first is yesterday’s announcement of greater tariffs on US imports than we had assumed. In such... 3rd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Two surprises in the market reaction to “Liberation Day” Markets were roiled after Trump announced “Liberation Day” tariffs that were clearly bigger than many (including us) had expected. We think there are a couple of interesting facts in the market... 3rd April 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: keep an eye on FX reserves Quick action by the Turkish central bank appears to have stemmed pressure in Turkey’s financial markets after the recent sell-off. But the rapid depletion of FX reserves means that policymakers have... 2nd April 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Credit spreads won’t tighten much even if stocks rebound Although US corporate credit spreads have taken their cue from US equities over the past couple of years, we don't think they will reach new lows even if equities reach new highs. 1st April 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will EZ equities continue to outperform US ones? While the recent outperformance of euro-zone stocks relative to US ones may have a bit further to run, we doubt European equities would hold up in absolute terms if US stocks fell much further. 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are amongst the least affected EMs by the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. And growth in the region is set for a modest pick-up on the back of lower... 31st March 2025 · 0 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: Taking stock ahead of “Liberation Day” Despite President Trump’s decision to jump the gun with tariffs on the auto sector this week (ahead of next week’s widely trailed announcement on 2nd April), the dollar is ending the week broadly flat... 28th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily More headwinds for gilts to come from home than abroad The UK may have one of the most shielded economies against US tariffs. But stagflation and fiscal risks at home provide strong headwinds for its bond market. 28th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa Economic Outlook: Stronger growth but debt concerns to persist Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are amongst the least affected EMs by the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. And growth in the region is set for a modest pick-up on the back of lower... 28th March 2025 · 19 mins read
