Bonds Update AI bust to drive Treasury yields lower Having already driven the US stock market over recent years, the AI theme is increasingly driving the Treasury market too. We expect this to remain the case over the coming year: we forecast a plunge... 20th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will higher bond yields shape EM fiscal risks? EM public finances have become more vulnerable to higher interest rates in recent years. Some major EMs with underlying fiscal vulnerabilities – including Brazil, South Africa and Hungary – have... 19th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to hike on Wednesday to support rupiah The further sell-off today in Indonesia’s financial markets following MSCI’s latest threat to downgrade the country’s stock market means that a 25bp interest rate hike, to 6.00%, at Bank Indonesia’s... 19th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big are the contagion risks from France? France appears to be heading for a fiscal crisis which could lead to contagion and potentially a recession in the euro-zone. However, several factors mean the contagion risks to other countries’ bond... 19th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Tech tumbles, but it’s good news for Treasuries We don’t think the AI bubble has burst yet, but if tech does come under further pressure it might not immediately spread to the rest of the market. Meanwhile, we remain upbeat on Treasuries. 19th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Treasuries could hedge AI bust even if oil prices rise So far this year, long-dated Treasuries have been a poor hedge against AI wobbles when this has coincided with rising oil prices. But we think they would fare well if the AI boom turned to bust as we... 16th October 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Bond market déjà vu for the PBOC The PBOC again faces the question of whether to intervene as China’s 10-year government bond yield approaches its historic low, a situation that prompted the central bank to suspend bond purchases in... 16th October 2026 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Rupee rally requires an improvement in fundamentals The rupee has rallied this week after the RBI introduced measures to curb dollar demand and deter speculative positioning. But while these steps have provided near-term support, a more durable... 16th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Bonds Update French OATs will remain Euro-zone’s problem child We think the selloff in French OATs has further to run over the coming year and spreads could conceivably rise much further, perhaps to around 200bp, given that attempts to put France’s public... 16th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Another positioning shakeout or the beginning of the end? Hot US inflation data over the past couple of days have been overshadowed by renewed questions around the sustainability of the AI boom. With both equities and Treasury yields dropping sharply for the... 15th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Uganda’s external pressures force aggressive tightening The Bank of Uganda’s (BoU) decision to raise its policy rate by 225bp to 12.00% at an unscheduled meeting today underscores the deterioration in the country’s external position. So long as global... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Hot inflation raises risk of higher yields for longer Hot US inflation data has put an October Fed hike back on the cards and sparked a dual sell-off in stocks and bonds. Our base case is for both to rally into year-end, but today’s news is another sign... 14th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The outlook continues to darken for the euro Euro-zone spreads and the euro have stabilised over the past couple of days and plenty of bad news on French politics now appears priced in. That said, it is hard to make an optimistic case for the... 13th October 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update When would the ECB intervene in bond markets? Bond markets are a long way from needing ECB intervention – in the recent past, policymakers have only got twitchy when 10-year sovereign spreads were around 250bp. If spreads approached those levels... 13th October 2026 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update Will the UK Budget prompt a bond market backlash? Our base case is that the Chancellor will not loosen fiscal policy by much at the Budget on 28th October, preventing a bond market backlash. But his margin for error is small, and a loss of investor... 13th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We expect Treasury yields to fall further, eventually We continue to expect Treasury yields to fall further, although the inflation picture and Fed may be stiff near-term headwinds. 12th October 2026 · 3 mins read
