Capital Daily US big tech is back … but not at China’s expense The rolling back of tariffs has coincided with a recovery in big tech in the US and China. Their dual rally is something new since Donald Trump returned to the White House. We think there’s a good... 14th May 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Hong Kong property prices won't recover this decade While sales volumes have picked up since the start of last year, we expect residential property prices in Hong Kong to continue to fall until Fed cuts resume. Even then, given the structural headwinds... 14th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (May 2025) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Japan’s economy won’t be affected much by global trade tensions. While the Bank of Japan has... 14th May 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Good news on inflation not doing much for Treasuries Despite the US-China truce, we still think inflationary pressures will prompt the Fed to stay pat for a while yet. But we doubt the 10-year Treasury yield will rise much more from here, even though... 13th May 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is the euro’s share of global FX reserves set to rise? Recent actions by the Trump administration have raised doubts about the dollar’s safe-haven credentials, and could contribute to a further decline in its share of global FX reserves. At the same time... 13th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Back to the future? Just over a month ago, we ditched our long-held forecast that the S&P 500 would end this year at 7,000, and revised it all the way down to 5,500. While that looks like it might have been a mistake, we... 12th May 2025 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Wait-and-see FOMC gives the dollar some respite The dollar has edged higher against most major currencies over the week as a whole, supported by the FOMC’s pushback against expectations of policy easing in the near term. The turmoil in some Asian... 9th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Trade deals may provide limited boost to US assets Thanks to continued optimism over prospective trade deals to reduce US tariff rates, asset markets have generally recouped most of their losses after the 2 nd April tariff announcement. That said, we... 9th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (May. 2025) Euro-zone GDP expanded at a decent pace in Q1 but that was partly due to temporary tariff front-running effects. And while higher defence and infrastructure spending will support euro-zone GDP growth... 9th May 2025 · 1 min read
Bonds Update The Treasury market still isn’t fully healed Even though the 10-year Treasury yield is close to where it was before “Liberation Day”, measures of term premia remain elevated. At face value, that suggests that the yield could fall quite a bit... 8th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Fed caution could be bad for Treasuries, good for the dollar We still think investors are expecting too many Fed cuts over the remainder of this year, and our base case remains that Treasury yields will rise and the US dollar will strengthen. 8th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Market implications of China’s monetary loosening We expect government bonds in China to continue to perform well against a backdrop of looser monetary policy, but suspect its currency won’t depreciate as much against the greenback as we had... 7th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the drama in Asian FX We see a few reasons to be sceptical about the chances of a broad-based upwards revaluation of Asian currencies, despite recent moves. 6th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Could a stronger yen thwart further BoJ tightening? In current circumstances it would take a large strengthening of the yen to push inflation below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. And with profit margins close to record highs, the hit from a stronger... 6th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Presidential Election (1st Round) Far-right candidate George Simion emerged as the clear frontrunner in the first round of Romania’s rescheduled presidential election and is now the favourite to win the second round on 18 th May. His... 5th May 2025 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap “Heads I lose, tails you win” for the dollar The dollar is ending the week on the backfoot, despite the ongoing normalisation and returning risk appetite across financial markets, as well as a generally decent set of US economic data. Somewhat... 2nd May 2025 · 5 mins read
