Capital Daily Tariff turbulence & US-Iran stand-off keep investors on their toes Tariff uncertainty is back after the US Supreme Court’s ruling and President Trump’s response over the weekend, while US-Iran tensions continue to edge higher. In a week short on major economic data... 23rd February 2026 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly India’s AI summit meets the “AI scare trade” The optics of this week's AI Impact Summit in New Delhi were powerful, but the timing was awkward. India’s business consulting and software firms have been major casualties in the global equity sell... 20th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update AUS-NZ yield spread set to widen further We think the 10-year Australian government bond yield will reach 5% this year as the RBA hikes by more than investors anticipate. But we see less scope for yields to rise in New Zealand as the RBNZ is... 19th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Is the optimism around EMs warranted? Positivity surrounding emerging markets appears to be at its highest in many years. While some of this is justified, we think there is a wide variation in the outlook for both growth and financial... 19th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Fed & Iran war risks threaten Treasuries The threats are mounting to US Treasuries, and we think yields will rise over the rest of the year. 19th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Equities Update AI vs dotcom: EM equities may hold up better this time While the recent underperformance of US tech stocks relative to Emerging Markets (EMs) echoes the eve of the dotcom bust, we think the AI rally still has a bit further to run. That said, if the AI... 18th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The Treasury rally and the tech sell-off The drop in US Treasury yields over the past couple of weeks remains difficult to square with recent economic news. But other factors – in particular ongoing jitters around the prospects of the US... 17th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Update What to make of diverging confidence and the stock market While the post-pandemic divergence between consumers’ confidence and the health of the stock market in the US is striking, we doubt the old relationship between the two will re-establish itself in... 17th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Bonds Update EM dollar bonds set to lose some of their shine EM dollar bond spreads are close to multi-year lows and we expect them generally to rise over the coming year or so. That informs our view that returns are set to be much poorer than they have been... 17th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Strong US data, weak US market sentiment – one has got to give We doubt the disconnect between robust US economic data and fearful US financial markets will continue. We expect that US equity markets, Treasury yields, and the dollar will rebound. 16th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the Treasury rally will last Although the latest US inflation data has extended a Treasury rally that has left yields across the curve at their lows of the year, we think the totality of the data this week actually strengthens... 13th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ramaphosa's SONA, CBN steps up FX liquidity South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa used his State of the Nation address to outline bold plans to tackle crime and improve infrastructure, but delivering on this will be challenging given the... 13th February 2026 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly China unlikely to accelerate sales of dollar assets Chinese regulators have reportedly asked banks to curb their exposure to US Treasuries. While Chinese banks' holdings of dollar-denominated bonds have decreased over the past year, they've largely... 13th February 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What has the government ever done for us? The government has been supporting both economic and employment growth over the last year, while private sector activity has been weak and private sector employment has fallen. But this isn't the... 13th February 2026 · 10 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stronger yen won’t be a big drag on inflation Despite widespread concerns that a resounding victory for the ruling coalition in Sunday’s Lower House elections would trigger a further sell-off in JGBs and the yen, the exchange rate in fact... 13th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Feb. 26) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy will continue to grow at a healthy pace, which should ensure that the labour market... 12th February 2026 · 1 min read
