India Economics Update RBI’s FX war chest is smaller than it looks The RBI’s FX reserves look plentiful but the headline figure overstates the central bank’s firepower, owing to a swollen forward book and sizeable holdings of gold. A renewed, sustained bout of rupee... 28th October 2026 · 3 mins read
RBA Watch Hawkish RBA will hike again for good measure With inflationary pressures unrelenting, the RBA will lift its cash rate by 25bp to an 18-year high of 4.85% at its November meeting. That hike will put policy settings well and truly into restrictive... 28th October 2026 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Three key points on the market fallout in Brazil President Lula’s surprise victory in Sunday’s runoff election has triggered an unwinding of earlier market optimism in Brazil but the rout is unlikely to turn into a crisis. While Lula’s populist... 27th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fall in Egyptian pound not a cause for panic The latest fall in the Egyptian pound may delay interest rate cuts and raising the cost for the government of servicing its FX debts. But these challenges should be manageable. And the bigger picture... 26th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Tech earnings vs central bank caution A hectic week for politics, central banks and corporate earnings reports may well be dominated by continued jitters around the sustainability of the AI equity boom. Over the past couple of weeks, they... 26th October 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Could France’s fiscal troubles be good news for Gilts? We expect the spillovers to the Gilt market from a further worsening in France’s fiscal problems to be limited. If anything, the balance of risks points to further French fiscal stress putting... 26th October 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fall in yields won’t necessarily reduce the debt burden While this week's fall in bond yields will be a welcome development for the Treasury, it doesn't mean that fiscal risks have diminished. Yields are still higher than they were just a few months ago... 23rd October 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Average firm unlikely to shrug off an AI bust Most firms in the S&P 500 have so far managed to shrug off the falls in tech stocks over recent days, thanks in large part to a boost from falling Treasury yields. But we expect tech stocks, non-tech... 23rd October 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly French bond rout raises the stakes for the UK Budget Recent developments in the French bond market strengthen the case for a prudent UK Budget on Wednesday. But the government still has room to act. We expect some temporary cost-of-living support and... 23rd October 2026 · 3 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Risks to our interest rate forecasts shifting to the upside The Bank of Japan will leave policy settings unchanged at its upcoming meeting but will signal continued concerns about upside risks to inflation. With little evidence that the tightening delivered so... 23rd October 2026 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily The macroeconomic limitations on S&P 500 earnings growth Although S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) have grown far more quickly than the US economy since the start of the AI revolution, this isn’t bound to last even if Q3 2026 is another bumper earnings... 22nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Bolsonaro victory largely priced into Brazilian assets We expect limited immediate market reaction if Flavio Bolsonaro wins Sunday’s run-off election. Over the medium term, though, the bond rally may continue if the Selic rate is cut by more than money... 22nd October 2026 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (Oct. 2026) After a very strong run, India’s economy is set to cool but annual GDP growth is still on course to average an impressive 7% from 2026-2028. Rising food prices on account of a weak monsoon will push... 22nd October 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will hike to 3.25% by year-end We expect the RBNZ to lift the Official Cash Rate by 25bp, to 3.00%, at its October meeting, as it seeks to mitigate upside risks to inflation. We’ve also brought forward our forecast for the final... 22nd October 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily France’s woes put Gilts in a better light Gilts have been out of the spotlight of late as investors’ focus has been on the US and France and it is likely to stay that way as the Chancellor delivers a low-key Budget next week. We expect Gilt... 21st October 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily French sovereign bonds not OAT of the woods While renewed hopes of a peace in the Middle East and lower energy prices have brought some relief to government bond markets today, the widening of the spread between French sovereign bonds and those... 20th October 2026 · 4 mins read
