Capital Daily Broad-based small cap outperformance may continue A storming rally in the tech sector has obscured the fact that the average US small cap has markedly beaten the average large cap over recent weeks. We think this trend has a bit further to run. 24th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rethinking Hungary’s path to the euro The Tisza government has made euro accession a key part of its economic plans. Its goal of being ready to enter by 2030 looks optimistic given that Hungary is some way away from meeting the Maastricht... 23rd April 2026 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Equity-dollar correlation will remain strong until the war is over The inverse relationship between risky assets and the US dollar has been unusually strong over the past couple of months. That is likely to continue as long as energy supply risks remain the key... 23rd April 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Why Treasuries are unlikely to regain a lot more ground The main reason why the yields of long-dated Treasuries haven’t dropped all the way back to their levels before the start of the Iran war is a major reassessment of the prospects for Fed policy. And... 22nd April 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about private credit and macro risk We recently hosted an online Drop-In session to discuss private credit and the risks to the macroeconomy and financial markets. (Recording available here.) This Update provides answers to some of the... 22nd April 2026 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Vaca Muerta fuels energy turnaround The surge in shale oil and gas production in the Vaca Muerta field over the past few years has turned Argentina from a net energy importer into an exporter, meaning that – unlike during previous... 22nd April 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Limited scope for further US HY spread compression US high yield (HY) corporate bond spreads have narrowed, on net, since the Iran conflict began, and look extremely tight by past standards. We don’t think they will narrow much further over the rest... 22nd April 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update LatAm bonds to outperform if energy prices fall further If the Iran war eases and energy prices fall back further, we expect LatAm bonds to outperform, as monetary policy would be eased substantially in Brazil and, to a lesser extent, in Mexico. By... 21st April 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Can anything slow earnings momentum? War and the associated economic hit couldn’t put a dent in S&P 500 earnings expectations but, given how concentrated and optimistic expectations now look, any sign of weakness in tech earnings next... 21st April 2026 · 3 mins read
Bonds Update EZ spreads won’t rise by much despite high debt levels A sustained re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz would probably mean euro-zone bond spreads narrow a bit further this year. What’s more, our base case is that spreads in Italy and France will remain... 20th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The Strait and markets, and tech equities’ surge The re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has taken the wind out of markets’ sails at the start of the week, but investors are still very optimistic – arguably surprisingly so. Meanwhile, if the... 20th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Reopening of Strait leaves us close to our baseline scenario The announcement that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened has extended this month's dual rally in stocks and bonds. We think both rallies have further to run if things progress broadly in line with... 17th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t think China’s markets have lost their allure China’s stock and bond markets have been left behind, to some extent, during the recent global relief rally, but we suspect they’ll be on the front foot again before long. 16th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of rate expectations Despite apparent contradictions between market pricing and consensus surveys when it comes to interest rate expectations, both seem consistent with a relatively “adverse” outcome to the war. That... 15th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Treasuries’ hedging role is diminished, but not gone The recent return of a positive stock-bond correlation has raised questions about the role of bonds in a portfolio, such as the traditional “60/40”. We agree that their use as a hedge may have... 15th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Further gains in Hungary’s markets may be harder to come by Hungary’s election result has been well received by markets, but further gains may be more limited and conditional on concrete results. 14th April 2026 · 3 mins read
