Capital Daily In the S&P 500 we antitrust Yesterday’s rise in the S&P 500 was fuelled by the shares of two of its largest firms after a favourable antitrust ruling. Although this masked a decline in the average stock in the index, we don’t... 4th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE: is growing ‘euroisation’ a concern? The increase in euro-denominated bank lending and deposits across parts of CEE in recent years – due in part to high domestic inflation and interest rates – looks like a concern on the surface, but... 4th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Why are Gilts the sick man of the bond market? While the sell-off in government bond markets has abated a bit today, the UK Gilt market continues to stand out, and not in a good way. Nonetheless, we continue to think that Gilt yields will... 3rd September 2025 · 5 mins read
Equities Update Japan’s stock market still looks appealing Foreign investors have generally been piling into Japan’s stock market in recent months, presumably encouraged by, among other things, the country’s recent trade deal with the US, the continued... 3rd September 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Parsing the long-end bond sell off As long-end government bond yields continue to rise, identifying the culprit for the latest sell-off becomes ever more pressing. 2nd September 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Equities and industrial commodities may continue to diverge Global equities and industrial commodities have been dancing to different tunes in recent years. We suspect that will remain the case through next year. 1st September 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar not quite cooked yet A quiet month-end week has seen the dollar stabilise – in spite of the Trump administration’s latest escalation of its attacks on the Fed. The lack of follow-through after those attacks and Fed Chair... 29th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Milei on shakier ground, Brazil’s slowdown The decision by the Argentinian government to support the peso by raising required reserve ratios for banks highlights a point we’ve been making for a while – that the Milei administration is firmly... 29th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily How rising JGB yields could be a threat to Treasuries The rise in the yields of Japanese government bonds doesn’t seem to have diminished Japanese investors’ appetite for US Treasuries, and our base case is that will continue. But the risks are growing. 29th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus Are US stocks really worth a higher valuation than the rest? The US stock market is at an all-time high, thanks in part to rapid earnings growth and expectations for that to continue. But rising valuations have also played their part, to the point where US... 28th August 2025 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily How worrying would AI fatigue be for the rest of the S&P 500? We suspect the AI-fuelled rally in the S&P 500 has further to run, despite the slightly adverse reaction to Nvidia’s latest results. But even if we’re wrong, we doubt there would be much fall-out... 28th August 2025 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Aug 25) China’s growth picked up a touch in July, but we expect the economy to remain weak this year. US tariffs will continue to weigh on exports, even as rerouting helps to offset some of the hit. Barring a... 28th August 2025 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Do the best things now come in small packages? Falling short-dated Treasury yields seem to have sparked a rotation within the US stock market in recent weeks. But we doubt this rotation will persist, given our view that Treasury yields will not... 27th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug. 2025) Capital inflows into EM bond markets appear to have surged over the past month, but outflows from EM equities picked up. Most EMs would be well-placed to cope in the event of a spike in capital... 27th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) We think economies across Sub-Saharan Africa will weather US tariffs relatively well. Indeed, improved terms of trade (for most) and lower inflation and interest rates should support a modest pick-up... 27th August 2025 · 0 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We believe monetary easing has further to run in the Antipodes. The case for policy stimulus is clear... 27th August 2025 · 1 min read
