Capital Daily Are fiscal concerns mounting again in Japan? We don’t think worries about Japan’s fiscal position are too severe, and expect the country’s equities and exchange rate, at least, to recover by the end of the year. 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A brief glimpse of a post-Powell world Yesterday’s reports that President Trump is considering firing Fed Chair Powell imminently were quickly denied and most key market prices have reverted to roughly where they were before the news broke... 17th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal risks still simmering across CEE Measures of fiscal risk premia have generally eased across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) over the past few months, but the region’s public debt dynamics remain a point of concern. Budget deficits... 17th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (July 2025) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Our base case is that EM growth will slow only modestly this year. But President Trump’s... 17th July 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily S&P 500 likely to get back on the straight and narrow Yesterday’s further ‘narrowing’ of the US stock market will have left it increasingly ‘concentrated’. But we don’t think these trends will reverse any time soon. And they may strengthen next year. 16th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: a bumpy path to macro stability ahead The tension inherent in the Milei administration’s goals of using a strong exchange rate to lower inflation while trying to improve Argentina’s external balance sheet is becoming increasingly apparent... 16th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation rebound still a headwind to US assets The latest US CPI report showed limited sign of any tariff impact but we continue to think that a rebound in inflation remains a headwind to US stock and bond markets this year – though it would... 15th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa and the impact of a lower inflation target A lowering of the South Africa’s inflation target is being hotly debated among policymakers and we are now factoring in a change to the target, from 3-6% now to 3±1%, into our forecasts. The Reserve... 15th July 2025 · 15 mins read
FX Markets Update EM FX rally has run its course as tariffs add to downside risk Despite some weakness on the back of the latest tariff threats, emerging market currencies have broadly appreciated against the US dollar this year, mostly due to greenback-specific headwinds. We... 15th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Trump tariffs and the dollar revisited (again) The Trump administration’s continued re-escalation of tariffs threats have so far made limited impact on financial markets, but one key difference in the way market participants have digested the... 14th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Bonds Focus Measuring Treasury term premia Although estimates of the 10-year Treasury term premium vary, most approaches suggest that it currently sits at around its highest level in a decade or so. We expect it to remain elevated over the... 14th July 2025 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EUR/USD strength is built on shaky economic assumptions While the interest-rate-differential-defying strength of EUR/USD may be partly explained by increased currency hedging, it also reflects shifting expectations for economic growth. We think those will... 14th July 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rebound has further to run despite Tariff Man The US dollar is ending the week a touch stronger as President Trump continues to ratchet up his tariff threats again and US interest rate expectations edge higher. As widely expected, the 9th July... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa’s tariff, US courting West Africa South Africa was once again threatened with a 30% reciprocal US tariff, but we worry its testy US relationship means the risk of higher tariffs has not gone away – particularly in light of Brazil’s... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Event India Drop-In: Equities outlook – Near-term risks, long-term opportunity 1755158400 We warned last year that India’s equities were set to underperform in the near term – and that has proven the case.
Bonds & Equities Growth and trade risks to weigh on Mexican markets We think the outperformance of Mexican assets and the peso since “Liberation Day”, owing to large tariff exemptions for exports to the US, has largely run its course. Instead, we think the weak... 11th July 2025 · 5 mins read
