Capital Daily How the AI boom is concentrating S&P 500 earnings growth As the US Q3 reporting season gets underway, here’s a sobering observation: the ‘big-tech’ sectors – information technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary – have accounted for... 16th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus Financial repression to keep a lid on bond yields Financial repression is not a costless way to deal with public sector debt burdens, but it tends to be more politically palatable than the other options. Indeed, it is already happening and... 16th October 2025 · 25 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (October 2025) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. EM growth has been resilient to US import tariffs, but headwinds from fiscal tightening... 16th October 2025 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update The future still looks bright for US diversified banks We think the outlook for US diversified banks is sunny, given the prospects for bonds and the economy. 16th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update What long-run r* are investors pricing in? While market pricing already looks consistent with our view that r* will rise to around 2% in the US over the coming decade, a deeper look suggests that there is still room for investors’ rate... 15th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The implications of Japan’s political turmoil for its markets We don’t think the political drama in Japan will be a drag on the country’s bond and stock markets and may, in the near term, even give them a boost. 15th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US Treasury yields unlikely to drop much further The sharp fall in interest rate expectations and long-term government bond yields over recent days in response to renewed US-China tensions has brough the 10-year Treasury yield to around its lowest... 14th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The Argentine peso: what to expect after the mid-terms Despite denials from policymakers, we think that Argentina’s exchange rate regime in its current form is unsustainable and that there will be a change after the mid-term elections later this month. We... 14th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily US-China re-escalation fallout: two key lessons Moves in the US dollar and global equities since last week give an indication of how renewed US-China tensions, should they persist, would affect key financial markets. 13th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt this equity correction will last long Even after tumbling today amid US-China trade tensions, the S&P 500 remains close to its all-time high. That’s despite investors seemingly believing that the risks around US inflation are increasingly... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rebounds; blast from the past for yen & Argentina While President Trump’s return to the trade war path this afternoon has led to a drop in the dollar, it has risen, on net, this week – despite (or perhaps because of) the absence of most US economic... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s job market, Argentina’s bailout, Peru’s crisis The announcement that the US Treasury purchased Argentine peso assets has provided a boost to Argentina’s financial markets. It's unclear what the US will demand in exchange, but it could include the... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France’s worrying deficit, Germany‘s timid reforms Even if it avoids early elections, France looks set to pass a budget which reduces the deficit only fractionally next year and President Macron’s prized pension reforms are now at risk of being partly... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Fiscal uncertainty adds to case for BoJ inaction Sanae Takaichi won Saturday’s LDP leadership elections but is struggling to gather enough support in parliament to become PM as long-standing partner Komeito has threatened to abandon the coalition... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We’re now less upbeat on the yen, more on the TOPIX We now think the yen will appreciate a bit more slowly against the US dollar than we’d previously forecast, but we’re revising up our projections for Japan’s stock market. 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Will the US Treasury market keep calm and carry on? The gradual decline of volatility in the US Treasury market over recent months has helped underpin the buoyant mood in equity and credit markets. But, even if Treasury market volatility does not flare... 9th October 2025 · 5 mins read
