Capital Daily We think US equities could continue to underperform Today’s price action reinforces our view that there is plenty of scope for mid- and large-cap equities in the US to underperform those in the rest of the developed world further if there is a de... 14th March 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Some signs of stabilisation amid fallout from the war The war in Ukraine continues to dominate both the news headlines and financial markets. While market conditions have remained very volatile, this week has seen a degree of stabilisation of risk... 11th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Oil embargoes and asset returns: lessons from 1973-74 If the Russia-Ukraine war escalated, we would expect some of the recent patterns in relative asset market performance to continue to echo those during the 1973-74 oil crisis. That said, we wouldn’t... 11th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily China’s equity market, decoupling, and the Russia-Ukraine war Even if a repeat of their dismal performance in 2021 is unlikely, we don’t expect a big rebound in China’s equities this year. 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update EZ corporate & sovereign spreads may converge again Although a gap between euro-zone corporate and peripheral sovereign spreads opened up after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, it has begun to close recently and we think that it will shrink further... 11th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the risks to the S&P 500 from high oil prices The war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russian oil trade have increased oil prices by as much as 40% so far this year, but we don’t think higher energy costs will derail the US stock market as they might... 11th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We expect the euro to remain under pressure this year While the ECB sounded less willing than we (and investors) had anticipated to delay plans for policy normalisation on the back of the Russia-Ukraine war, we still think that monetary policy divergence... 10th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics ECB FX intervention is unlikely There has been some discussion of possible FX intervention by the ECB to support the euro, but there is next to no chance of that being announced at today’s press conference, and unless the single... 10th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of changing 10-year UST inflation compensation While US 10-year inflation compensation has dropped back today in the wake of a pull-back in the price of oil, the bigger picture is that it had previously surged this week to its highest level this... 9th March 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics The influence of the war on the UK economy The UK is not as exposed to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine as the rest of Europe. Even so, in response to the surge in global commodity prices caused by the war we have dramatically... 9th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update War, sanctions, and the resilience of the S&P 500 The US stock market has so far held up fairly well despite the Russia-Ukraine war. We think it will probably manage to make small gains over the rest of the year, although there are clear downside... 9th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the implications of a joint EU fiscal response to the war We doubt that news that the EU may fund increases in energy and defence spending on the back of the Russia-Ukraine war through joint debt issuance will mark a turnaround for the euro and euro-zone... 8th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What to make of the recent outperformance of US equities The war in Ukraine has challenged our view that US equities will underperform those in other developed markets over the next few years. We are not yet ready to abandon this view while the outlook is... 8th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Oil-supply disruptions pose a threat to the US stock market History suggests that large disruptions to oil supply, which a proposed ban on imports of Russia’s oil would probably represent, could weigh heavily on the US stock market. Drop-In (8 March, 10:00 EST... 7th March 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Flattening gilt yield curve another signal of weaker growth The 10-year/2-year gilt yield curve is closer to inverting than at any point since March 2020, supporting our view that GDP growth will slow this year. And while a yield curve inversion isn’t a good... 7th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily War concerns may not sustain the rally in US Treasuries The February US employment report released earlier today serves as a reminder of the current strength of the US economy and, in our view, keeps the Fed’s policy tightening plans on track. So, although... 4th March 2022 · 7 mins read
