Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: how will officials respond to falls in the lira? The Turkish lira has come under renewed pressure in recent weeks but interest rate hikes to shore up the currency are off the cards. Instead, further sharp and disorderly falls would most likely be... 19th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The ECB, the Fed, and the euro The hawkish tone of the latest flurry of ECB and Fed speakers suggests that, despite the recent drop in equity markets and widening of credit spreads, policymakers are determined to press ahead with... 18th May 2022 · 7 mins read
US Chart Pack Economy powering ahead The strength of the hard activity data for April refutes the recent message from financial markets that the economy is at risk of imminent recession. The solid gain in control group retail sales... 18th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Bear markets, monetary tightening and the S&P 500 The current struggles of the S&P 500 don’t have much in common with most previous “bear markets”, but we still think one is likely as the Fed presses ahead with monetary tightening. 18th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Near bear market for S&P 500 doesn’t mean it’s out of the woods The glass-half-full case for US equities is that they have already fallen about as far they do in a typical recession, so they now have plenty of upside if, as we happen to project, the US economy... 17th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update On the relative prospects for US equity REITs We expect US equity REITs to remain under pressure between now and the middle of next year, given our view of the US stock and bond markets. Nonetheless, we doubt they will underperform US equities... 17th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Some market implications of China’s lockdowns China’s slowdown could keep the renminbi under pressure, and may have gloomy implications for global markets as well. 16th May 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The dollar rally might be due a pause Despite a reversal today, the US dollar looks set to appreciate for the sixth week running as “risky” assets remain under pressure. The DXY index has had its largest six-week gain since mid-2016... 13th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Rising CPI expectations occupying minds at Riksbank Just as policymakers at the ECB are becoming more concerned about inflation expectations, the rise in expectations in Sweden is giving the Riksbank plenty to fret about too. The Bank’s preferred... 13th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Weighing up the outlook for the S&P 500 History suggests the S&P 500 might recover quite quickly once it reaches its trough, but that may be a way off yet and still-rosy earnings expectations could be an obstacle. 13th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Earnings might not bail out the S&P 500 The S&P 500 might continue to struggle if, as we expect, slowing economic growth and rising labour costs causes corporate profits to grow by less than most anticipate. 13th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Gas supplies at risk, CNB shake-up, Turkey FX restrictions Russia’s sanctions on European energy companies and the closure of the Sokhranivka transit point in Ukraine this week are a sign that the risk of energy supply disruptions in Central and Eastern... 13th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update Risk of a surge in E-Z peripheral spreads has risen While our central forecast remains that euro-zone “peripheral” spreads will rise only a bit between now and the end of 2022, we think that the risk of a significant increase in spreads has risen. 13th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack High inflation is hurting real spending Recent data have shown the firmest evidence yet that high inflation is damaging real consumer spending in advanced economies. Real retail sales fell in the US, UK, and euro-zone in March, while... 13th May 2022 · 14 mins read
FX Markets Update CEE currencies face external and domestic headwinds We think that currencies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will depreciate further against the euro over the rest of this year. Within the region, we anticipate that the koruna will continue to... 12th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the drop in Gilt yields and sterling will persist We doubt that the recent fall in the yield of 10-year Gilts will continue. Indeed, we expect it to rebound to a significantly higher level than its recent peak over the next year or so. We also think... 12th May 2022 · 6 mins read
