Capital Daily Chinese stimulus may not save the day this time around China’s policymakers have had a busy few weeks. Between the ongoing lockdown policy, the depreciation of the renminbi, and the various fiscal and monetary stimulus measures that have been rolled out... 25th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Equity price falls add to headwinds to growth Recent falls in equity prices have not prompted downgrades to our global growth forecasts since the passthrough to the real economy is limited and part of the bad news has already been factored in to... 25th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The relationship between the US dollar and the stock market We anticipate a renewed rally in the US dollar and further declines in US equity prices over the next twelve months or so. 24th May 2022 · 5 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack More trouble may lie ahead for risky assets We think “risky” assets will continue to struggle over the next year or so, even if a recession is avoided in most major developed markets. 24th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Yield curve positioning after peak inflation Although Treasury yields have dropped back in recent weeks amid signs that inflation has peaked, we don’t think it makes sense to extend duration. Of course, the longer a bond’s remaining life, the... 24th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think the peak in Treasury yields is still to come We doubt that the 10-year Treasury yield has peaked in this cycle. Admittedly, it has fallen back markedly on net over the past couple of weeks; having briefly climbed above 3.20% earlier this month... 23rd May 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tweak to Yield Curve Control still on the table The Bank of Japan’s attempt to relieve pressure on the Yield Curve Control framework by offering to buy an unlimited amount of 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) at yields of 0.25% for as long... 23rd May 2022 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar struggles despite equity sell-off After another volatile few days across financial markets, the US dollar looks set to end the week lower against most major currencies. Given the renewed falls in “risky” assets, that is arguably... 20th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt consumer staples will continue to underperform “tech” We doubt the consumer staples sector, which has been hit particularly hard in the recent sell-off in the S&P 500, will continue to underperform “tech”-heavy sectors. ECB Drop-In (24 th May 10:00 ET/15... 20th May 2022 · 7 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Markets are creaking but not (yet) breaking So far, the sell-off across bond and equity markets this year has not triggered major signs of systemic risk. If that were to change, central banks would probably have to step in to prevent a... 20th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Markets and monetary policy, mounting pressure on naira Recent investor risk-off sentiment has pushed up sovereign dollar bond yields across Sub-Saharan Africa, fuelling debt risks further, and has put currencies under pressure. Central banks appear to be... 20th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the latest falls in the S&P 500 Although the S&P 500 has stabilised at the time of writing, its 4% drop yesterday has brought the index close to a bear market. We suspect there may be more pain to come for equities, even if the US... 19th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Earnings may be the next headwind for the S&P 500 Despite its struggles yesterday, we think the S&P 500 may have some way further to fall as the economy slows and more companies struggle to meet optimistic earnings expectations. Note: We’ll be... 19th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus War in Ukraine to exacerbate macro imbalances in CEE The war in Ukraine will exacerbate two key macro risks in Central and Eastern Europe this year: wage-price spirals (particularly in Poland) and widening current account deficits (particularly in... 19th May 2022 · 17 mins read
