FX Markets Update Revising down our forecasts for riskier currencies With the outlook for the global economy worsening further and the Fed still on the war path, we have revised down our forecasts for many G10 “high-beta” currencies and several EM currencies. Asia Drop... 24th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs stepping up to support currencies A handful of EM central banks have ramped up FX sales to provide support to weakening currencies over the past couple of months. And with inflation high and the US dollar likely to strengthen further... 24th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We expect long-dated Treasury yields to resume their rise While the yield of 10-year US Treasuries has fallen sharply in recent days, we doubt it has already passed its peak. 23rd June 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack High inflation to keep central banks in tightening mode Having surged in recent months, there are some tentative signs that EM inflation is nearing a peak. Our measure of aggregate EM inflation was steady at 7.0% y/y between April and May and some... 23rd June 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Gilts to struggle sooner, equities to struggle for longer We haven’t changed our forecast that the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 1.25% now to a peak of 3.00% by the middle of next year. But we do now think that a number of other central... 23rd June 2022 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Revisiting the case for US bank equity outperformance The prospect of weaker economic growth has reduced the appeal of US banks’ equities, even though they may yet benefit from a renewed rise in long-dated Treasury yields and still appear relatively... 23rd June 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We still think the backdrop is favourable for the US dollar Although it has fallen back a little recently, we continue to think the greenback will appreciate further against most currencies as global economic growth disappoints. Asia Drop-In (30 th June, 09:00... 23rd June 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think headwinds to sterling are growing We expect the pound to weaken further against the US dollar over the rest of 2022 as the BoE fails to keep pace with the Fed’s tightening cycle and appetite for risk continues to weaken. 22nd June 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update We now expect higher and earlier peaks in bond yields We now think that the yields of 10-year developed market government bonds will peak earlier and, in some cases, at higher levels than we previously expected. That reflects a view that tightening... 22nd June 2022 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack FX intervention from a position of strength The rupee has held up better than most EM currencies this month and the recent drop in FX reserves strongly indicates that this is in part because the RBI has once again ramped up its FX interventions... 22nd June 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Start of a sustained rebound or just another bear market rally? Despite today’s more than 2% gain in the S&P 500 at the time of writing, we doubt we have seen the bottom in the index given our views that the Fed’s tightening cycle is a long way from over and that... 21st June 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack BoJ at the barricades While inflation is still far lower in Japan than in most places, rapid increases in the prices of some everyday purchases have made it a political focus. A Nikkei poll following the Bank of Japan’s... 21st June 2022 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily The case for a weaker renminbi remains intact Although we now think policy rates in China will not be lowered further, we still expect the renminbi to weaken to 7.0/US$ this year. Markets Drop-In (22 nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets... 20th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Four reasons why we expect further falls in EM equities We think that stock markets in the emerging world will continue to struggle alongside their developed market peers over the next eighteen months or so, for four main reasons. Markets Drop-In (22 nd... 20th June 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Epic central bank week ends in a draw on the FX front Among the flurry of central bank announcements, the continued plunge in equity markets, and wild gyrations across core government bond markets, currencies have been pulled in several directions this... 17th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily The BoJ stands alone, for now The BoJ left policy unchanged today but we suspect that it will ultimately modify its Yield Curve Control (YCC) framework before long. We think this could, at the margin, add to the upward pressure on... 17th June 2022 · 7 mins read
