EM Markets Chart Pack We think EM assets will remain under pressure We expect the yields of emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) and dollar sovereign bonds to rise further and EM equities to lose more ground as “risk-free” rates continue to climb and global... 30th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Hawkish shift creates difficult environment for Africa The hawkish turn by DM central banks over the past month has further soured investor risk appetite, and capital inflows into African economies are likely to have slowed. Countries with large external... 30th June 2022 · 12 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We expect the US dollar to continue trending higher While the strength of the US dollar already reflects expectations that the Fed will continue its aggressive policy tightening, we think that disappointing global growth and weak risk sentiment will... 30th June 2022 · 11 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Mounting growth concerns leave few places to hide The period since the publication of our last Asset Allocation Chart Book on 31 st May has brought yet more pain for investors. Between then and 28 th June, the returns from all the headline indices... 30th June 2022 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily Some market implications of the falls in commodity prices We think further falls in commodity prices will contribute to continued underperformance of commodity-heavy parts of the global equity market, but won’t prevent government bond yields from rising to... 29th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Tightening cycles still have some way to go Inflation has continued to beat expectations across Emerging Europe over the past month, reaching rates not seen in decades in most countries. It is now weighing more heavily on consumer confidence... 29th June 2022 · 13 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Tight labour market pushing up wages The tight labour market is putting upward pressure on wages, with the Labour Force Survey showing a strong 1.0% m/m rise in average hourly earnings in May. While the annual rate of wage growth, at 3.9... 29th June 2022 · 8 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect even higher yields and lower risky asset prices We think developed market government bond yields will rise further while equity and corporate bond prices fall further, as central banks press ahead with tightening and the global economy slows. Drop... 29th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Rebound in long-dated Bund yields may have further to run While we expect the recent rise in the yield of 10-year German Bunds to continue between now and the end of 2022, we think there is a significant risk that the recent calm in euro-zone “peripheral”... 28th June 2022 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack Domestic weakness frees up ports for exports The Omicron virus wave in China appears to have eased global shipping bottlenecks rather than worsened them as many had feared. Firms were able to re-route shipments through other ports to avoid... 28th June 2022 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt China’s stock market will go from strength to strength We don’t think that the recent rally in China’s stock market sets the stage for extensive gains over the new few years. 27th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM assets & the risks from tighter DM monetary policy We doubt that aggressive policy tightening by developed market (DM) central banks will be followed by a series of financial crises in major emerging market (EM) economies in the way that it has at... 27th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Thai economy to receive tourism boost After more than two years in the doldrums, Thailand’s tourism sector is finally showing signs of life. Arrivals in May reached 520,000 – a 77% increase from the previous month and 19% of the level... 27th June 2022 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily A stock market rebound makes little sense if a recession is nigh The proximate cause of this week’s tentative rebound in the S&P 500 appears to have been a pull-back in Treasury yields. Yet their retreat has reflected concerns that the Fed will drive the economy... 24th June 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap We think the dollar rally has paused, not ended Amid mounting concerns about the global growth outlook as more central banks raised policy rates, the US dollar looks set to end the week broadly unchanged against most major currencies. Although we... 24th June 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Answering your questions on our market forecasts We held a Drop-In on Wednesday to discuss what the evolving outlook for monetary policy and global growth means for our markets forecasts. This Update recaps the key questions we addressed in the Drop... 24th June 2022 · 8 mins read
